UNDERs are Getting Hot
UNDERs went 11-4 last night in MLB and are now 211-215-21 on the season. In Prediction Machine‘s April 5 newsletter we warned that the early season OVER trend (58 percent at the time) wouldn’t last forever. I wrote, “My advice in the short term is to fire away on these OVERs while the bookmakers sort this out, but do not expect it to last forever. Just as we saw with March Madness when UNDERs were streaky, oddsmakers quickly adjusted and stopped the bleeding. This will inevitably happen in baseball and if you watch closely you can see the point where oddsmakers overcompensate and it will actually create value on UNDERs.”
That time is now. OVERs did continue to hit at a 58 percent clip for a week after that newsletter, but since April 12, we’ve actually seen UNDERs hit at 57.7 percent (161-118). As bettors we can look for inflated lines and attack them time of year, especially as pitchers are probably starting to get used to the pitch clock which was surely contributing to early-season OVERs.
Batter vs. Pitcher Trends
Batter vs. Pitcher stats in MLB are easily accessible without paying for a subscription and give you useful insight into which players have historically hit certain pitchers really well or poorly. In general, if a pitcher is facing a lineup with a bunch of players he’s not done well with in the past, then you might consider fading him. You could also use the data to bet props over on players who have hit opposing pitchers well.
With that in mind, let’s look at some data for today’s games.
Perez, a career .268 hitter, may be better off sitting this one out because he’s 6-for-44 (.136) with 10 strikeouts against Orioles starter Kyle Gibson who takes the mound today. Two of those six hits were home runs, but that’s still a stomach turning batting average. Perez, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Hunter Dozier are a combined 10-for-76 with 22 strikeouts vs. Gibson. Meanwhile, three Orioles batters (Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, and Cedric Mullins) are hitting 13-for-26 with 2 doubles, a home run, and only one strikeout vs. today’s Royals’ starter Zack Greinke who may not have slept well last night thinking about that trio.
Note: Royals’ catcher Salvador Perez injured his finger in last night’s game vs. Baltimore, and is considered day-to-day.
Below are some other useful trends to keep in mind as you make your baseball wagers today. Perhaps, you can use them to optimize your DFS lineups or to bet on player props. However you choose to use the data, I hope it helps you have a fruitful Wednesday.
- Tony Kemp (A’s) is 8-for-16 with a double, home run and 6 RBI vs. Seattle starter Logan Gilbert
- Charlie Blackmon (Rockies) is 12-for-24 with 3 doubles, 2 HRs, 5 RBI and 2 BBs vs. Milwaukee starter Eric Lauer
- Anthony Rendon (Angels) is 5-for-11 with 0 Ks, 2 BBs, and a double vs. Cardinals’ starter Miles Mikolas
- Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio (Blue Jays) are a combined 15-for-38 with 4 HRs, 3 doubles, 10 RBI, and 10 Ks vs. Boston starter Nick Pivetta
- Alex Verdugo (Red Sox) is 7-for-16 with 2 doubles and a HR vs. Toronto starter Alek Manoah
- Gleyber Torres (Yankees) is 6-for-11 with a double, a HR, and 2 BBs vs. Guardians’ starter Shane Bieber
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura (Marlins) are 1-for-21 vs. Braves’ starter Kyle Wright
- Juan Soto (Padres) is 2-for-2 with 2 HR vs. Reds’ starter Luis Cessa
- Javier Baez (Tigers) is 5-for-7 with 2 HR, and 2 doubles vs. Mets’ starter Joey Lucchesi
See our picks for all of today’s MLB games here.