Yes/No Run First Inning Betting - Prediction Machine

Yes/No Run First Inning Betting

Yes/No Run First Inning Betting

First Inning Runs Scored Bets Are Both Entertaining And Profitable When Attacked Correctly

Yes/no runs in the first inning prop bets are among my favorite ways to attack the MLB betting season.

From an entertainment standpoint, these bets are a lot of fun because the outcomes are decided very quickly, so each pitch and each out carries a lot more weight. From a handicapping standpoint, I’ve long theorized that these lines are softer than sides and totals because oddsmakers are likely not spending as much time setting them as they are the more popular moneylines, run lines, and totals.

Below are 8 major factors I consider when making first inning prop bets:

1.) Wind velocity and direction – If wind is blowing in toward home plate at 5 MPH or more, this increases the likelihood of a “no” outcome and if the wind is blowing out at 5 MPH or more, it increases the likelihood of a “yes” outcome. The stronger the wind, the more likely that yes or no outcome is. Wind blowing in can turn home runs into outs and vice versa, so don’t make a yes/no first inning bet without checking the weather. Wind blowing out is especially noteworthy with home run prone pitchers or against lineups with a lot of home run hitters.

2.) Ballpark – Consider if this is a hitter’s ballpark or a pitcher’s ballpark. Are there powerful left-handed batters that can take advantage of a short right-field wall? 

3.) Batter vs. Pitcher – With a little digging, you can see how the top 3-4 batters in a lineup have done historically vs. each starting pitcher. If a starting pitcher is facing three batters who have all had success vs. him then that obviously increases the likelihood of a run scoring in that frame. If a batter has never faced a particular pitcher, I give a very slight edge to the pitcher.

4.) Hitter momentum – Just because a batter has done well vs. an opposing pitcher doesn’t guarantee future success. However if a batter has done well historically and is on a hot streak at the plate, that’s the kind of combination that gets my attention.

5.) First-inning pitching splits – Some starting pitchers take a while to settle into a groove, while others start hot and are more likely to struggle as the game goes on. See who the starting pitchers are and research how they’ve performed in the first innings of games so far this season and throughout their career.

6.) Other pitching splits – While the first inning pitching split is obviously the most important, some information can be gleaned from other pitching split data such as home vs. away, day game vs. night game pitching splits. I feel more comfortable leaning on this data when it has a long history and not just a small sample size from a few starts in one season.

7.) First-inning hitting stats – Just as you can see which pitchers get off to hot starts, you can also see which teams start hot or cold. You can take that data a step further and see which teams start hot and cold when they’re home or away. Here’s a gem that’s a great example: As of June 7, the Marlins are 5-for-32 scoring in the first inning of games at home this season. 

8.) Last-minute betting – Because wind conditions and lineups can change prior to the first pitch, I try to put my first-inning prop bets in closer to the first pitch. For instance, if you make a bet based on a windy forecast and a lead off hitter with a good history vs. a particular starting pitcher, you’re not going to be happy to learn he’s been scratched from the starting lineup.