In sports betting, bankroll management is everything. I can’t emphasize enough the importance of proper bet sizing and discipline in this area because it’s not talked about nearly enough by experts in this industry.
Think about it. You may have a sense of how often certain handicappers win and what kind of wagers they make. You probably read articles from betting analysts and understand why they’re making certain wagers. You even have a feel for experts’ betting frequency and which sports they attack most. But it’s more rare to see experts share their personal exact wager amounts when recommending a bet.
There are a lot of good reasons for that, but the end result is a betting public that’s becoming more savvy about how to get an edge and increase the likelihood of winning, while receiving no education on how much to bet and how to manage their wins and losses.
“That’s like a pilot who is really good at flying planes, but received no training on how to land it safely.”
A strong bettor who is 40-25 and up 18 units using a flat betting system, can crash and burn quickly after those same 65 wagers if their bet sizes are erratic and inconsistent. (Prediction Machine’s betting model includes wager size recommendations that are extremely consistent to help you avoid this scenario). If an extremely skilled bettor can go broke from poor bankroll management, then things look grim for average or below average bettors long term.
To address this glaring hole in the sports betting media landscape, I included all of my bet sizes throughout the 2023 March Madness tournament using a hypothetical $1,000 bankroll.
While that tournament has passed, the exercise is still useful as a teaching tool to help role model healthy betting habits and proper bankroll management to recreational bettors.
The 3% rule
Believe it or not, most professional bettors consistently wager about 3% of their bank roll and rarely deviate from that “rule.”
This is one of the hardest things for recreational bettors with smaller budgets to wrap their heads around because if they only have $250 in a sportsbook budget, then betting 3% ($7.50) can feel pointless. This strategy of betting is less flashy, it requires more patience, and let’s address the elephant in the room… it’s not as fun. However, professionals are disciplined enough to value winning long-term over the short-term fun factor.
Keeping bet sizes at 3% guards against going broke from bad luck and losing streaks that impact even the most knowledgeable bettors. For instance, a bettor starting with $100 who only bet 3% of their new bankroll after each bet (assuming bets weren’t placed simultaneously) would have to lose their first 46 bets in a row before their balance went below $25.
More importantly, this rule also helps you guard against the temptation of increasing your bet sizes as your bankroll grows and your emotions (and dreams of hitting big) start to take over.
If you’re a Prediction Machine subscriber and your goal is long-term success, consider putting in 3% of your bankroll as the average bet size in your settings to get betting recommendations that are more consistent with what a professional would do with your bank roll size.
