Season splits are one of the easiest forms of sports betting data analysis to digest, but don’t let their simplicity fool you. In baseball, where hitters get streaky and teams often go on long winning or losing streaks, analyzing splits can be a highly effective way to get a clear picture of a game.
Team Calendar Splits
As with the Bart Torvik ratings in college basketball, there are several baseball analytic sites that allow you to easily manipulate data based on specific periods of time. The Splits Leaderboard at Fangraphs.com is a great example and you don’t need to be a data scientist to use it.
Curious how the Yankees’ offensive production was different before and after Aaron Judge’s injury? Wondering how a team’s bullpen has improved since they added pieces at the trade deadline? Who is the worst lineup in baseball over the last week? All of these questions and more can be easily answered with some basic data input and a few clicks.
For an example of why these splits are so vital while handicapping games, let’s use actual data from the 2023 MLB season as of July 31. If you’re handicapping the Giants vs. Padres and not using calendar splits, you’d be led to believe these two offenses are equal. After all, San Francisco has a slightly better batting average (.242 vs. 238) and San Diego has a slightly better slugging percentage (.327 vs. .318). Based on this data, you can’t give either team a meaningful offensive edge.
Now, lets use splits to see how each offense has performed since the All-Star break. The Giants are hitting .207 and the Padres are hitting .254, while the Giants are slugging .344 compared to the Padres .453. That’s a massive advantage for the Padres that you’d be unaware of if you weren’t using these splits.
The data we cut out from April, May, and June isn’t entirely useless but it needs to be viewed in comparison to the more recent data to get a full picture. Keep in mind, this data by itself isn’t sufficient to pull the trigger on a bet, but combined with other data points, or Prediction Machine’s powerful algorithm, it can help increase your conviction.
Player Calendar Splits
Just as easily as you can zoom in on recent data for teams, you can do so for players. For instance, you can easily see who has hit the most homers since June 1 or which player has stolen the most bases since May 15. At Fangraphs.com you can put additional layers onto this data, for example which players have the best batting average since May 15 vs. left-handed pitching?
This information can be particularly helpful for betting player props. With this data, you can bet the hottest hitters in baseball on their over props or fade guys on cold streaks.
vs. LHP / RHP Splits
Some MLB lineups have drastically different results vs. right-handed pitching compared to southpaws.
Again, using data from the July 31 of the 2023 MLB season, if the Braves were starting a left-handed pitcher vs. the Marlins’ right-handed starter, you might think these two offenses are pretty similar since these teams rank 2nd and 3rd in baseball with similar batting averages (.270 and .265). However, the Marlins are hitting .307 vs. left-handed pitching and the Braves are batting just .264 vs. right-handed pitchers.
Keep in mind this data is far less reliable, and potentially even misleading, early in the season. For instance, a team may have an awful batting average in three starts vs. lefties, not because they’re bad vs. southpaws, but because the three they faced were all Cy Young candidates.
Home / Away Splits
MLB standings have included home and away team records seemingly forever. Crowd support, and travel advantages, and ballpark familiarity can all benefit the home team.
For some pitchers, the difference between a home and road statistics can be glaring. Some pitchers are more comfortable with the landscaping of their home mound. Certain ballpark dimensions fit certain pitch arsenals and some guys might perform better after sleeping on their own mattress. Whatever the reason, make sure you’re checking each starting pitcher’s home and away splits before making a bet.
Some hitters rake better in particular ballparks too, so keep that in mind when betting player props.
