The NFC North is the one division I wouldn’t be completely shocked if any of the four teams won. The Lions are the team everyone is talking about and it’s easy to see why.
Detroit went 8-2 over its final 10 games last season and several of those wins were eye-opening, including two wins vs. a big-time division rival (Packers) and three wins vs. playoff teams (Giants, Jaguars, Vikings). The Lions went 5-1 vs. their division last season (only the Chiefs and 49ers were better) and fans adore their motivational head coach Dan Campbell.
Detroit theoretically should be improved from last season. They’ll once again have one of the best offensive lines in football and added rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12 overall) and rookie TE Sam LaPorta (No. 34 overall) to a team with several proven play makers that ranked 5th in scoring offense. On the defensive side, the Lions have talent at all three levels so it’s just a matter of how well they’ll gel into a cohesive unit for defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.
The hype train has left the station as Detroit is +130 to win this division. Because the Lions started slow last season, and because they open the season with two tough games (Kansas City and Seattle), I’d advise waiting a week or two into the season to potentially get a better number if you’re smitten with Lions.
| Team | Win Division | Win Total | Make Playoffs | Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | +130 | 9.5 | -175 | +145 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +300 | 8.5 | +105 | -130 |
| Chicago Bears | +380 | 7.5 | +170 | -210 |
| Green Bay Packers | +380 | 7.5 | +185 | -230 |
The Vikings used Justin Jefferson and a lot of good fortune to finish 13-4 last season, and oddsmakers are expecting a major regression for Minnesota (8.5 win total). The Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last season (that’s ridiculous) and had a -3 point differential.
Everyone knows the Vikings were a bit fraudulent last season, so betting the over on their season win total is cringey, but there’s not a lot of value on the under because casinos made the appropriate adjustment down from last year. Minnesota has a tough schedule and plays the Eagles, Chargers, Chiefs and 49ers by Week 7.
The Packers open the season with a very soft schedule and they could very well be leading the division at their Week 6 bye, so if you like Green Bay futures bets, now is the time to fire away. That said, I’m not betting a dime on the Packers until Jordan Love and that young receiving group proves to me they’re a consistent concern to defenses. Love has one career start and it’s not easy playing in the shadow of a departed legend.
The Bears’ schedule is softer than McDonald’s ice cream and Aaron Rodgers is gone, so the opening is there for them to make a major move in the North. Chicago 0-10 down the stretch last season, but there were glimmers of hope in one-score losses vs. Miami, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Detroit. Whether or not you bet Chicago futures wagers is probably closely tied to your belief in Justin Fields who is either a legitimate MVP candidate or flash in the pan, depending who you listen to.
COTY
Last season’s “Hard Knocks” season endeared Campbell to fans and he’s gone from laughing stock (biting knee cap press conference) to the favorite in this market. If you do bet Campbell, make sure you shop around as there are some +850 numbers in the market along with some +1000 lines. I’m personally not betting this one but if you have conviction in the Lions, this bet makes sense because voters would love to crown this guy tomorrow.
When I first looked at this market I was excited to see what Eberflus’ line would be because while I don’t have a ton of faith in the Bears, they do have a path if the stars align and turning around a 3-win team would be a great story line. However, it seems the odds makers were one step ahead of me and set the line out of reach.
| Coach | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dan Campbell - DET | +1000 |
| Matt Eberflus - CHI | +1200 |
| Matt Lafleur - GB | +1600 |
| Kevin O'Connell - MIN | +3300 |
OPOY
The scary thing about Justin Jefferson’s 2022 season (128 catches, 1809 yards) is that he might get even more targets in 2023 with Dalvin Cook gone and the Vikings projected to be losing more games. With this in mind, +1200 is worth a swing.
Nobody else on this list is worthy of a look.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson - WR, MIN | +1200 |
| Justin Fields - QB, CHI | +2000 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR, DET | +2500 |
| Aaron Jones - RB, GB | +8000 |
| Christian Watson WR, GB | +8000 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, DET | +10000 |
DPOY
Hutchinson has the 11th-shortest odds in the league for this award and he’s a sneaky pick absolutely worthy of a sprinkle. If the Lions break their long playoff drought, and Hutchinson has a big season, the Lions hype train will only bolster Hutchinson’s chances.
In the final two games of 2022, while the Lions were fighting for a playoff spot, Hutchinson notched 2.5 sacks, a FR, an INT and a PD. If he can come close to sustaining that kind of production in 2023, his +2800 price is a big bargain.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aidan Hutchinson - DE, DET | +2800 |
| Rashan Gary - LB, GB | +4000 |
