NFC East Betting Breakdown: Cowboys Can Challenge Eagles

The betting market seems to think there’s a big gap between the Eagles and Cowboys atop the NFC East, but a lot of respected names in the industry think the Cowboys have closed the gap. 

Former GM Michael Lombardi and broadcaster Brent Musburger are both on record as picking the Cowboys to win the division, while Pro Football Network and CBS Sports both project Dallas and Philadelphia to finish the season with identical records.

While I see more value on Dallas at +180 than Philadelphia at -120, it’s hard to imagine the Eagles faltering without serious injuries or the dreaded Super Bowl hangover. Philadelphia had 2022’s 2nd ranked offense behind Jalen Hurts who now legitimately owns the “elite” label, and their defense ranked 7th in the NFL last season. Philadelphia GM Howie Roseman is so good at replacing departing talent and knocked it out of the park again by replacing DT Javon Hargrave with Jalen Carter and getting RBs Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift to take over for Miles Sanders.

That said, the Cowboys are the NFC East team to bet in futures markets as they have a much friendlier +1400 Super Bowl number (Eagles are +650) and +600 conference odds (Eagles are +250).

Despite Cooper Rush starting 5 games for Dallas last season, the Cowboys still finished with the NFL’s 4th-best offense (25.9 PPG). The Cowboys added underrated WR Brandin Cooks for the slot and losing Ezekiel Elliot might be addition-by-subtraction if it means more touches for Tony Pollard who averages 5.1 YPC for his career. 

The Dallas defense has led the NFL in takeaways two seasons in a row and that was before adding CB Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore only had two INTs last season for the Colts, but QBs won’t be able to avoid him in 2023 with Trevon Diggs on the other side.

The Giants received a lot of accolades last year after upsetting the Vikings in the NFC Wild Card round and head coach Brian Daboll winning Coach of the Year, but don’t forget this team only won 3 of its final 10 regular season games. Just like the Vikings, the Giants won a lot of close games last season and they’re not likely to repeat that good fortune two years in a row.

Starting QB Sam Howell will determine what kind of season Washington has, and I’d not bet on a 22-year-old 5th round pick (2022) until he proves he’s a starter.

Howell looked solid in his one game last season, with 2 touchdowns (1 rushing) and an INT with 169 yards passing in a win vs. a resting Dallas team. Washington’s defense was very underrated last season as they ranked No. 3 in yards allowed and No. 8 in points allowed. That unit should get a boost if Chase Young is healthy and playing to his full potential.

Coach Of The Year

Daboll won this award last year and at +2800, I understand the appeal of getting long shot odds on a guy who just proved he could win this award, but no head coach has won this award in back-to-back seasons since 1982-1983 (Joe Gibbs).

I have no interest in betting Sirianni because even if the Eagles go 15-2, his roster will get most of the credit and voters love Cinderella stories, not coaches with tons of talent. I feel similarly about McCarthy and his dumb decisions can cost his team wins.

Rivera won this award twice and most people believe he’s got the worst roster in the division, so the ingredients are there to bet him, but I can’t do it because of his QB situation.

MVP

Because this award is almost always awarded to a QB, Hurts and Prescott are the only realistic options within this division because Jones and Howell don’t have the talent. Hurts and Prescott both have winning rosters and a variety of weapons, but Hurts is the more talented QB.

Hurts and Josh Allen were the only players to receive a first-place MVP vote last season besides winner Patrick Mahomes. 

I’m not betting anyone from the NFC East in this market, but if I had to it’d be Hurts.

DPOY

Micah Parsons finished second in DPOY voting last season, but his production slipped a bit down the stretch with only 1.5 sacks in his final 6 regular season games. Parsons still finished with 13.5 sacks and I can’t blame anyone for betting him to win this award but I’m personally staying away.

Haason Reddick has totaled 39.5 sacks the last three seasons for three different NFL teams and he’s a force for offensive coordinators to handle. While his +2500 may look tempting, there are just too many good defensive players in the league to give his number value.