Information is king when betting NFL games, but what do you do when that information is coming from trusted sources and is also patently false?
This scenario has occurred multiple times already this season and bettors are, understandably so, growing frustrated. In this article below, I’ll recap two of the larger information blunders from this season and provide some advice on how to navigate the NFL injury grapevine.
Robinson’s Week 7 headaches
The NFL is now investigating why Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson didn’t appear on an injury report, but also barely played (6 snaps) vs. Tampa Bay Sunday.
Officially, the Falcons are saying Robinson had headaches, but this still should have appeared on the injury report even though it wasn’t a traditional physical ailment. Fantasy owners and prop bettors alike were confused why Robinson didn’t take a single snap in the first half Sunday. Over prop bettors would have preferred Robinson didn’t play at all so the bets would grade as “no action” but him playing a small handful of snaps was the worst case scenario (under bettors rejoice).
Pending results of the league’s investigation, the Falcons may be fined, but of course none of that money will appease those who lost cash due to the transgression.
Pelissero eats it
Trusted NFL reporter Tom Pelissero reported on September 28 before the Lions Week 4 game vs. the Packers that Detroit CB Emmanuel Moseley would play. Moseley, while not a household name, is a starter and a difference maker. Bettors used Pelissero’s information to set fantasy lineups for Packers WRs, bet over the total or perhaps take the Lions moneyline. The betting implications are truly endless.
Unfortunately, Pelissero was wrong. Moseley didn’t play in Week 4. To his credit, Pelissero corrected his mistake at 8:31 AM the morning of the game, but for some the damage was done.
“There was a miscommunication, and I will just have to eat this one. I apologize for the error,” he said from his official X account @tompelissero.
Small bet sizes can help
Most recreational bettors don’t want to hear this advice but the truth is most professional bettors only commit about 3% of their bankroll on each wager. To read more about the 3% rule, click here:
Imagine for a moment you had a high level of conviction in the Falcons last week based on Bijan Robinson playing. Now imagine the frustration you’d feel if your largest bet of the season was on that game in the first half when Robinson was riding the pine. If you were betting 3% or less of your bankroll, there would be no reason to panic.
Crazy things happen in sports betting and betting 3% or less each time can help you sustain losing streaks or rare pieces of misinformation from trusted media outlets.
Monitor injuries daily
A lot of people don’t realize that while games are taking place on Sunday, NFL.com tracks significant injuries and updates this tracker with whether players returned to the game or not. An example of this document from last week can be found here:
Professional bettors like to bet the following week’s lines early and this document can really help make sure you’re not betting on a team that recently sustained cluster injuries you were unaware of.
Monday press conferences often provide injury updates to the media related to X-ray or MRI results. Following beat writers on twitter can be your fastest way to this information.
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday official injury reports and practice reports are released and are a great indication of which direction a player is trending. For instance, if you seen DNP (Did not Practice) on Wednesday, LP (Limited Practice) on Thursday and FP (Full Practice) on Friday there’s a strong chance that player is active Sunday. However, if a player goes from LP to DNP late in the week, things start to look pessimistic.
Keep on mind, several older veteran players often have a DNP status because of scheduled days off – this will be indicated with the word “rest” on the injury report DNP’s connected to rest days aren’t reason for concern.