MLB Live Betting - Prediction Machine

MLB Live Betting

Blue Jays baseball

Remember that when you're live betting, your opponent is a computer using a pre-determined algorithm to set the odds, unlike before the game starts when a human, or group of humans has set the number.

There are little nuances that a computer doesn’t pick up on and/or can’t account for accurately, that a strategic bettor can. In football, an example is fading a team when an offensive lineman gets hurt for a line that’s already struggling with a cluster of injuries. A computer isn’t watching a game closely to monitor for injuries and comparing the strength of a team’s swing tackle with their starting left tackle. But you can. In baseball, exploiting these weaknesses in the computer’s algorithm can give live bettors an edge.

1. Consider Batting Order – I use this tip on a regular basis during baseball season and it’s extremely helpful. When live betting, always be cognizant of where in the batting order a team is late in games.

If the Yankees are tied 3-3 heading into the 8th inning, their cleanup hitter made the last out, there’s a chance that Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and New York’s big bats won’t get another at bat. In most lineups, there’s a huge difference between the quality of the 6-7-8-9 hitters and the weapons at the top of the lineup. With this in mind, you should constantly be calculating how many “guaranteed” at-bats big threats have before the game ends. Of course, a 6-7-8-9 hitter can be considered a big threat too if he’s particularly hot, etc.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher Stats – Career batter vs. pitcher stats can be helpful while live betting, especially while analyzing potential bullpen options vs. the opposing lineup. Of course, there’s never a guarantee that a particular bullpen option will be used, but based on recent innings pitched, you can have a reasonable idea of which relievers are most likely to be used. Once you identify a game you’ll be live betting, you could have the stats pulled up in front of you to minimize research during crunch time. Know before the game starts which batters have great/poor career numbers vs. the other teams’ relievers. If the game goes to commercial while the manager is calling someone in from the bullpen who has poor career numbers vs. the next few batters, consider firing away.

3. Is the Home Team Leading? – When live betting OVER/UNDERs, it’s important to remember that there may not be a bottom of the 9th inning. If the home team is leading after 8.5 innings, then that’s three fewer outs and fewer opportunities for runs to be scored. If you’re considering betting the total for a game the Mets lead 10-3 in the 6th inning at home, odds are there will be no bottom of the 9th inning. However, if the Mets are on the road in this scenario, there’s a great chance for that extra half-frame.