This column examines the AFC East from a betting perspective and it’s the third installment of our NFL coverage leading up to Week 1. For my AFC North preview click here, or to read our guide to betting NFL Futures tickets, click here.
“For my money, the Jets are the most compelling team in the AFC East.”
In what seems like ancient history, the Jets entered their Week 10 bye 6-3 and fresh off a win vs. the Bills who were -700 favorites to win that game. They accomplished all this with Joe Flacco and Zach Wilson at QB.
Adding Aaron Rodgers’ skill and leadership to a team with tons of talent that lost steam down the stretch is extremely intriguing. A lot of other people are thinking the same thing, which is why the Jets’ futures price plummeted from +4000 to +1400 immediately after Rodgers landed in New York.
Sure, New York finished the season on a 6-game losing streak, but they played 5 playoff teams during that stretch and the non-playoff opponent (Detroit) was fighting for the postseason.
This Jets team reminds me a lot of the 49ers’ 2019 Super Bowl team which went 4-12 the prior season while showing flashes of promise everywhere outside the QB position. Robert Saleh was the Defensive Coordinator for that team and he’s never coached a CB like Sauce Gardner or a QB like Aaron Rodgers. I like all Jets futures bets, but if I can only pick one, it’d be the over on the 9.5 season win total.
| Team | Win Division | Win Total | Make Playoffs | Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +130 | 10.5 | -245 | +200 |
| New York Jets | +240 | 9.5 | -165 | +135 |
| Miami Dolphins | +300 | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
| New England Patriots | +750 | 7.5 | +240 | -320 |
The Patriots are never an easy out on Sundays, but it’s tough to imagine them winning this division, so even at the mouth watering price of +750, I’m staying away. Bill Belichick and the Patriots are 25-25 since Tom Brady departed and QB Mac Jones regressed while rumors of tension with his coach swirled. Analyst Warren Sharp crunched the numbers and based on projected win totals, the Patriots have the toughest schedule in the league next season. I’d lean toward the patriots under 7.5 wins on the season, but I don’t have enough conviction to bet it.
Like the Jets, the Dolphins started 2022 hot (8-3) before finishing 1-5 and limping into the playoffs. Miami only lost by 3 in the Wild Card round to the Bills despite a shaky passing day from Skylar Thompson (18-for-45, 1 TD, 2 INTs). Tua Tagovailoa is expected to resume slicing up defenses, but it’s not dramatic to say he could be one concussion away from his season ending. I think the Dolphins have a higher ceiling this season than most people think, but I have too many question marks to bet them.
Buffalo’s defense looked a lot different after Von Miller was injured in Week 12 last season and they could only generate one sack in their playoff loss to the Bengals. Miller supposedly has an outside shot to start Week 1, but missing a couple weeks is the more likely scenario. TE Dalton Kincaid was drafted in the first round to provide another target for Josh Allen and former Cowboys’ guard Connor McGovern should help improve a suspect offensive line.
Star WR Stefon Diggs isn’t happy and nobody is completely sure why, but it’s never good when one of your best players is in headlines for all the wrong reasons in June. I’m expecting the Bills in the playoffs again, but I don’t see value on any of their team futures markets.
Comeback Player of the Year
Everyone is rooting for Bills’ safety Damar Hamlin after his near-death experience on the field last season and his story is both heartfelt and inspiring. That said, from a betting perspective, Hamlin has completely ruined this market.
It’s pretty rare to see odds like this for a preseason futures wager, but it makes sense given the magnitude of what Hamlin is coming back from. The Hamlin angle reminds me of the market for 2020 Comeback Player of the Year Alex Smith. Smith’s injury was so significant and publicized that it didn’t matter how well he played because, after almost losing his leg, just stepping on the field was enough. Smith tossed more INTs (8) than TDs (6) in 2020 and after one start in October, he was a -330 favorite for the award.
I can’t remember a safer NFL preseason futures bet in recent memory than Hamlin winning this award, but I have no interest in allowing a sportsbook to hold my money all season at a -700 price so I’m avoiding this market altogether in 2023.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Damar Hamlin - S, BUF | -700 |
| Breece Hall - RB, NYJ | +2500 |
| Tua Tagovailoa - QB, NYJ | +3300 |
| Micah Hyde S - BUF | +6000 |
MVP
Josh Allen is always a favorite in the NFL MVP market, but I’ve got my sights set on Rodgers at a juicy +1600 price. Rodgers is the poster child for playing better when there’s a chip on his shoulder and his shoulder has more chips on it entering 2023 than a Las Vegas poker table. Rodgers would love nothing more than to give the proverbial middle finger to everyone who doubted him and say “I told you so” on the Pat McAfee show.
I know he’s aging, but give me +1600 MVP odds on a 4-time MVP joining a talented team coming off a losing season, all day long. Rodgers is only two seasons removed from his last MVP title and can see plenty left in the tank. Last season Jets’ WR Garrett Wilson tallied 83 catches for 1,103 with the Three Stooges throwing him the ball. Wilson is +2000 in the offensive player of the year market as people speculate what he could do with Rodgers under center.
If Rogers and Allen (or other QBs on winning teams) have similar seasons statistically, I think Rodgers gets the edge from voters because of the perception that he rescued a losing team.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen - QB, BUF | +750 |
| Aaron Rodgers - QB, NYJ | +1600 |
| Tua Tagovailoa - QB, MIA | +2000 |
| Mac Jones - QB, NE | +6600 |
| Tyreek Hill - WR, MIA | +10000 |
COTY
Of these options, I have a lean here toward Saleh as you might have guessed from reading the rest of this article, but I’ve not bet any of these yet.
As silly as it sounds, the optics of Saleh’s rah-rah attitude and his likable personality are a factor in this market. More importantly though, the Jets’ 7-10 record and last place finish work to Saleh’s advantage here if New York surprises people. Saleh would also get credit for taming the mercurial Rodgers who struggled at times with authority figures and teammates in Green Bay.
| Coach | Odds |
|---|---|
| Robert Saleh - NYJ | +1600 |
| Mike McDaniel - MIA | +2000 |
| Bill Belichick - NE | +2800 |
| Sean McDermott - BUF | +4000 |
