Yes/No Super Bowl Bets (01/19/16)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
“Yes”/”No” Super Bowl bets. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



Only two games remain until Super Bowl 50. Which team(s) should you bet “Yes” or “No” to win the big game?

Below we look for value in the odds for the remaining four NFL Playoff teams to win the Super Bowl. We utilize our NFL Super Bowl odds to find the likelihood of a given team winning (or not winning) it all.

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Super Bowl and compare that to our projected odds the team hoists the Lombardi Trophy. For example, New England is listed at +200 (2/1) to win the Super Bowl, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Patriots they would need to win it all 33.3% (which is 1/(2+1)) of the time. We project Tom Brady and the Pats to win the Super Bowl 20.2% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +200 odds.

Arizona Cardinals - Yes
Odds: +400, Implied Chance: 20.0%, Projected Chance: 32.4%

It has been seven years since the Cardinals last made a Super Bowl run. Arizona came up short then but this year Bruce Arians and the Birds are the most likely team to win it all. Carson Palmer leads the NFL's top ranked offense and the defense isn't half bad either, ranking in the top five in efficiency.

Denver Broncos - Yes
Odds: +400, Implied Chance: 20.0%, Projected Chance: 23.9%

Peyton Manning is no longer a gunslinger, he is a game manager. The Denver offense that was once the envy of the league is now ordinary. Yet, there is value in backing the Broncos to win it all. Like they say, defense wins championships and the best unit in the game resides in Mile High.

Carolina Panthers - No
Odds: -250, Implied Chance: 71.4%, Projected Chance: 76.6%

A strong indicator of future success is a team's yards per play differential. Carolina ranks in the top ten in this statistic, of course that came against the league's easiest schedule. The Panthers opponent in the NFC Championship game, Arizona, led the NFL in yards per play differential and that was against much stiffer competition.

New England Patriots - No
Odds: -250, Implied Chance: 71.4%, Projected Chance: 79.9%

Tom Brady has dominated his matchup with Peyton Manning going 11-5 straight-up against his rival. Yet, when it really matters, Brady and the Patriots are just 1-2 against Manning in AFC title games. It is hard to win the Super Bowl if you don't reach the big game.

“Yes”/”No” Super Bowl odds

Team Yes No Chance To Win
Arizona Cardinals +400 -600 32.4%
Carolina Panthers +200 -250 23.4%
Denver Broncos +400 -600 23.9%
New England Patriots +200 -250 20.2%