Fall Classic Odds & Props (10/20/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Looking for value in the World Series odds, plus props bets.

The Royals, a team that was 40/1 to win the World Series before the season began, are favored to defeat the Giants in the Fall Classic.

Kansas City is -120 to win the title, while San Francisco is +100 to win it all.

This is the closest series price in the past six years. The American League has been favored to win it all in each of the last six seasons.

From a value perspective, in order to feel comfortable wagering on Kansas City at -120 you would need to be 54.5% (120/(100+120)) confident that the Royals will win the World Series. We give Kansas City a 44.7% chance to win it all, meaning there is no value in placing that wager.

There is value in placing a bet on the Giants at +100 as we give San Francisco a 55.3% chance to the World Series.

Bookmakers Point of View

"Despite the Giants battling the Dodgers all year for the NL West, they hung around in the mid-teens in terms of Odds to Win the World Series and we took quite a bit of bets on them throughout the season. In fact, they took in almost double compared to the Royals, even though Kansas City was as high as 50-1 at one point. While the series price is close with the Royals as slight favorites, I expect to be taking quite a bit on the Giants game-to-game as we have seen throughout the playoffs. We will clearly be Royals' fans in the World Series."

Kevin Bradley, Sports Book Manager, Bovada.lv

Prop Bets

Exact Series Result

  • San Francisco Giants 4-0: 12/1
  • San Francisco Giants 4-1: 6/1
  • San Francisco Giants 4-2: 5/1
  • San Francisco Giants 4-3: 9/2
  • Kansas City Royals 4-0: 12/1
  • Kansas City Royals 4-1: 11/2
  • Kansas City Royals 4-2: 4/1
  • Kansas City Royals 4-3: 15/4

We project that the series will go at least six games 61.6% of the time. Game 7 occurs 31.0% of the time. Bet this prop at your own risk, there is little to no value with these odds.

Odds to win the 2014 World Series MVP
  • Pablo Sandoval (SF): 8/1
  • Buster Posey (SF): 17/2
  • Lorenzo Cain (KC): 9/1
  • Eric Hosmer (KC): 10/1
  • Mike Moustakas (KC): 10/1
  • Alex Gordon (KC): 12/1
  • Hunter Pence (SF): 12/1
  • Madison Bumgarner (SF): 12/1
  • James Shields (KC): 14/1
  • Brandon Crawford (SF): 25/1

Position players make up the top seven most likely MVPs. It is difficult to project an award that is subjective but if General Manager Paul Bessire were to place a wager he would go with longshot Madison Bumgarner. San Francisco's ace pitcher is projected to win both of his potential starts in the World Series over the Royals top starting pitcher James Shields.