Undefeated Odds (09/08/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
What are the chances that Ohio State goes undefeated?

The defending champions, the No. 1 team in our Power Rankings, avenged their lone loss of last season by dropping 42 points and 572 total yards of offense on Virginia Tech in the Buckeyes season opener. Ohio State's trio of quarterbacks - Cardale Jones, J.T. Barrett and Braxton Miller (now a receiver/running back) – made a statement in the resounding victory, each contributed offensively by having either a passing, rushing or receiving touchdown.

With so much talent, what are the chances that Urban Meyer's team goes undefeated in the regular season?

Like Paul Hogan in Crocodile Dundee - better than average.

In addition to being the best team in the country, the bookmakers' favorite to win the College Football Playoff has an easy schedule. It'll be late October before the Buckeyes face a team in the top-50 of our Power Rankings (Penn State – who just lost to Temple). The only real obstacles come at the end of the season against Michigan State and Michigan. Though Ohio State is greater than 70 percent likely to knock off Sparty and 85 percent likely to beat the rival Wolverines.

With eleven regular season games remaining, the Buckeyes are 53.3 percent likely to go undefeated.

12-0 is not just a real possibility for Ohio State, it's more likely than not.

Note: the No. 2 (Baylor) and No. 3 (Alabama) teams in our Power Rankings are not even favored in every remaining game on their respective schedules, let along greater than 50 percent likely to go undefeated.

Will Ohio State Go Undefeated?

Opponent Projected Win Probability
vs. Hawaii 99.9%
vs. Northern Illinois 99.7%
vs. Western Michigan 98.7%
@ Indiana 97.7%
vs. Maryland 99.6%
vs. Penn State 96.1%
@ Rutgers 98.9%
vs. Minnesota 98.6%
@ Illinois 97.3%
vs. Michigan State 71.7%
@ Michigan 85.2%