Coaching Hot Seat (09/09/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Which NFL coach is getting fired first? Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



Full season analysis, Power Rankings and fantasy projections, these are a must but no preview would be complete without a look at the coaches on the hot seat.

More than half the league's coaches have odds to be fired. Some are rookies like the Jets' Todd Bowles and others have won Super Bowls (Sean Payton, Tom Coughlin).

Which NFL coach is getting fired first?

The oddsmakers think Cleveland's Mike Pettine (11/4) needs to tread lightly. The Browns are an unstable organization; they have had four different coaches in the last six years. Pettine had a losing record in his first season and in the 2014 Draft he took Johnny Manziel and Justin Gilbert in the first round – neither looks like a good pick.

Close behind Pettine is Jay Gruden (3/1). Washington's coach is basically asking to be fired. After going 4-12 in his first season, Gruden has publicly feuded with Robert Griffin III, the one-time franchise quarterback of the Redskins, and named Kirk Cousins the starting quarterback for the 2015 season.

Bill O'Brien likes the f-bomb and his mom isn't happy. The Texans shot caller would likely drop a few expletives if he were canned this season. O'Brien is 25/1 to be sacked first this season.

After three consecutive 8-8 seasons fans were calling for Jason Garrett's head and bookmakers agreed making Garrett the favorite to be fired last year. However, after a trip to the playoffs, the Cowboys rewarded Garrett with a five-year extension. Still, this is a “what have you done for me lately” business and Garrett has 50/1 odds to be dismissed.

Of course these odds are really just for fun and have little predictive value. Of the 12 coaches that had odds to be fired last season, only four were let go and three made the playoffs.

Odds to be Fired First

Coach Odds
Mike Pettine 11/4
Jay Gruden 3/1
Ken Whisenhunt 9/1
Joe Philbin 12/1
Gus Bradley 16/1
Jim Tomsula 16/1
Sean Payton 16/1
Tom Coughlin 20/1
Ron Rivera 20/1
Todd Bowles 25/1
Jeff Fisher 25/1
Marvin Lewis 25/1
Bill O'Brien 25/1
Lovie Smith 25/1
Jack Del Rio 33/1
Jim Caldwell 33/1
Chip Kelly 33/1
Rex Ryan 33/1
Jason Garrett 50/1