When will the Dubs lose? (11/16/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
When will the Warriors lose?

The defending champs are a perfect 11-0. Golden State is running roughshod over the rest of the league winning by an average of 16 points per game. Stephen Curry is shooting a ridiculous 45.2 percent from beyond the arc. The reigning MVP's 57 three pointers is as many as San Antonio and Memphis has made as a team and more than Minnesota and Brooklyn.

Golden State is the best team in the NBA and is on pace to become just the second 70 win team in league history but they can't win every game. When will the Warriors run end?

After simulating every game through Christmas, there is a 3.8 percent chance that Golden State is 29-0 once you've unwrapped all your presents. The Dubs are greater than 70 percent likely to win each of the next 18 games through the holiday season.

If the Warriors do slip up, it'll likely occur on the road. Away games against the Clippers (this week) and the Jazz (after Thanksgiving) are against top ten teams that are a combined 6-2 on their home courts. The matchup against Utah is the start of a seven game road trip. There is a 76.5 percent chance that Curry and company lose at least one game in that span away from the Oracle.

Then there is the Finals rematch when Curry and LeBron James clash on Christmas Day. The last time these teams met the Cavs were without the services of Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. If Cleveland is fully healthy, Irving is still recovering from a broken knee cap, the game in Oakland gets more interesting. As these teams are currently constructed, Golden State would be 77 percent likely to win. With Irving in the lineup, Cleveland's expected win probability increases 12 percent. Still, the Warriors would be 65 percent likely to win.

Date Opponent Warriors Proj. Win%
17-Nov vs. Toronto 84.2%
19-Nov at LA Clippers 73.4%
20-Nov vs. Chicago 83.7%
22-Nov at Denver 86.5%
24-Nov vs. LA Lakers 93.4%
27-Nov at Phoenix 82.4%
28-Nov vs. Sacramento 91.3%
30-Nov at Utah 77.4%
2-Dec at Charlotte 82.8%
5-Dec at Toronto 76.6%
6-Dec at Brooklyn 89.8%
8-Dec at Indiana 80.5%
11-Dec at Boston 78.0%
12-Dec at Milwaukee 85.0%
16-Dec vs. Phoenix 88.4%
18-Dec vs. Milwaukee 89.6%
23-Dec vs. Utah 84.9%
25-Dec vs. Cleveland 77.0%

What happens first?

Stop me if you've heard this before, the Sixers are on a losing streak. Philly has dropped ten straight games to start the season for the second straight year. For as great as the Warriors are, Philadelphia has been equally incompetent. With the 76ers on a 20 game losing streak (dating back to last March) and no team able to stop Golden State, which streak ends first?

In this contest of sorts, Philadelphia comes out on top. The Sixers are actually projected to win a game - at home vs. the Lakers on December 1st. There is an 81.8 percent chance that Philly wins at least one of its next eight games leading up to the thriller against Kobe. The Dubs only have a 75.6 percent chance of losing at least one game over that same time frame.

Date Opponent Warriors Proj. Win%
16-Nov vs. Dallas 24.5%
18-Nov vs. Indiana 23.7%
20-Nov at Charlotte 16.4%
21-Nov at Miami 13.7%
23-Nov at Minnesota 19.0%
25-Nov at Boston 15.2%
27-Nov at Houston 18.2%
29-Nov at Memphis 22.2%
1-Dec vs. LA Lakers 52.1%