Undefeated (10/20/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Which NFL team is most likley to stay undefeated?



Five teams (Panthers, Broncos, Bengals, Packers and Patriots) in the NFL have yet to lose a game. That is the most unbeaten teams at this point in the season since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.

Which team has the best chance of finishing the regular season undefeated?

Carolina Panthers (5-0)

Cam Newton and the Panthers are a soft 5-0. Carolina hasn't beaten a team with a winning record this season and the schedule is about to get a lot more difficult. Their next three games are against teams ranked 10th, 15th and 2nd in our Power Rankings. The Panthers are 99.9 percent likely to suffer a loss this season.

Denver Broncos (6-0)

Denver is undefeated and fans are calling for Peyton Manning to be benched. The NFL is a strange place. The Broncos have won five of six games by a touchdown or less. Records in one-score games tend to regress to the mean over time. With a struggling offense and a little less luck, Denver is one of the least likely teams to stay perfect.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-0)

Cincy is a surprise 6-0 to start the season. Of course until the Bengals start to have success in the playoffs (Marvin Lewis is 0-6 in the postseason) it's hard to take this team seriously.

Green Bay Packer (6-0)

The Cheeseheads are the best team in the NFC and arguably the most balanced in all of football. Aaron Rodgers is pretty but the Packers are longshots to run the table.

New England Patriots (5-0)

Tom Brady has been in eff-you mode since his Deflate-gate suspension was lifted before the season. The Patriots are averaging an NFL best 36.6 points-per-game. New England is the No. 1 team in our Power Rankings and are nearly twice as likely to go undefeated as any team in the NFL, but another 16-0 regular season is highly improbable in Foxborough.

Team Chance of Winning Out
Patriots 1.2%
Packers 0.7%
Bengals 0.6%
Broncos 0.4%
Panthers 0.1%