Uh-oh Romo (09/21/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Tony No Mo – Analyzing the impact of Romo's injury.



2-0 never felt so bad.

Dallas sits atop the NFC East but the Cowboys suffered a significant loss in their win over the Eagles on Sunday. Starting quarterback Tony Romo fractured his collarbone.



The timetable for Romo's return is estimated at six to eight weeks. However, initial reports for Dez Bryant had the star receiver missing four to six week but ballooned up to ten to twelve weeks. The worst case scenario is that Brandon Weeden (career record of 5-16 as a starter) is under center for the remainder of the season.

Can the Cowboys make the playoffs without Romo?

With Romo as the starting quarterback all season, Dallas is projected to win 9.5 games on average. The Boys would win the NFC East for a second year in a row and would have a 7.8 percent chance to win the Super Bowl.

In a Doomsday scenario, Weeden starting the rest of the regular season, Dallas' playoff probability drops from 73.9 percent to 47.7 percent as their projected win total decreases from 9.5 to 7.9 wins. Without their Pro Bowl quarterback Dallas is expected to score 5.2 points fewer per game.

Romo makes Dallas a playoff lock while Weeden puts the Cowboys postseason in doubt.

Romo's Injury Impact

Statistic With Romo With Weeden
Record 9.5-6.5 7.9-8.1
Playoffs 73.9% 47.7%
Super Bowl 7.8% 4.3%
Points Per Game 27.6 22.4