The Improbability of Every Lions Win (11/29/16)
The Lions are now 7-4. They've won both their games against their closest competitor, the Vikings, and are now favored to bring home the NFC North title. The Packers did win this week against the Eagles and looked better than expected considering their previous games this season. Aaron Rodgers has been on the rise as Sam Bradford and the Vikings are spinning their wheels. In a few weeks, the Packers-Lions game could help determine the division title.
It's immoral to mention the Lions 7-4 record without bringing to light that they've trailed in the fourth quarter in every game this season. Yes, every single game! Thus, they have been a decent-sized underdog in every game at some point in the fourth quarter. So just how improbable are the Lions seven wins? For consistency, we'll use our live in-game odds at the point in which the opposing team scored last to take the lead as the point of odds-checking.
Looking back and combining all of these games, the probability of the Lions coming out ahead in all of these games is 0.0025% or one in every 40,000 chances. The Lions are currently ranked 24th in our power rankings with the 16th best offense and 23rd best defense in football. However, they may not need to be phenomenal to win their weaker division with their improbable one-game lead and tiebreaker against the Vikings. It should also be noted that while the Lions rank just 24th overall, there is very little separating the middle tier of the NFL, so one good performance (like potentially upsetting the Saints this weekend) could boost them into the upper half of the league.