Super Bowl Odds (01/13/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Finding value in the “Yes”/”No” odds for each team to win the Super Bowl. Odds courtesy of

The Seattle Seahawks are +125 favorites to bring home their second consecutive Vince Lombardi Trophy. The defending champions are also -155 to not win the Super Bowl. Which bet has value?

Below we look at the odds for each team to either win or lose the Super Bowl.

We use our NFL Playoff Odds to determine if either “Yes” or “No” bet for each remaining playoff team is worth wagering. Value is determined as follows: Green Bay is -900 to not win the Super Bowl. In order to feel comfortable placing a bet the Packers would need to be expected to not win it all 90.0% (which is 1/(1+9)) of the time. We project Green Bay will not win it all 78.5% of the time meaning there is no value in placing a “No” bet.

Super Bowl Value Bets

Green Bay Packers “Yes”

Even with a calf injury, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers provide value in betting Green Bay to win the Super Bowl. Of course, to cash this bet the Packers will have to win as underdogs. Green Bay is already a 7.5 point dog in Seattle this weekend and the early Super Bowl lines have the Cheeseheads as 2.5 point underdogs to the Patriots, the most likely AFC Champion, in a potential title game matchup.

New England Patriots “No”

The Patriots will not win the Super Bowl. At least that is what you will hope if you walk to the window and put cold hard cash down on this ticket. Tom Brady has been to five Super Bowls and is likely to reach a sixth as our favorite to advance in the AFC Championship game.

New England is one team in our most likely Super Bowl (Seahawks vs. Patriots). The Pats would be 2.5 point underdogs to Seattle in a championship game that occurs 39.2% of the time.

Indianapolis Colts “Yes”

Andrew Luck is a longshot to win his first ring. At 7/1 odds, with just less than a 13% chance to win it all, there is value on the Colts to win the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl – “Yes” and “No” odds

Team Will Win Super Bowl Won't Win Super Bowl Odds to Win
Seattle Seahawks 5/4 20/31 40.2%
New England Patriots 9/5 5/11 25.6%
Green Bay Packers 11/2 1/9 21.5%
Indianapolis Colts 7/1 1/14 12.8%