Soccer Power Rankings (09/03/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Soccer Power Rankings and Full Season Projections.



The transfer window for European soccer is closed, which means this is as good a time as any to check in with each league. How have the Power Rankings changed, are there new projected champions?

As a reminder, we will now be simulating every scheduled game from the top five European soccer leagues as well as the MLS.

After every recorded play (penalty, throw-in, free kick, corner, goal, shot, substitution) we will simulate the rest of the game 50,000 times to determine the likelihood of a win, loss or draw for both teams as well as the projected final score.

All games will be available in real-time from the Live ScoreCaster page or in the Live ScoreCaster App on iTunes or Google Play.

Here are the leagues we are covering for their upcoming seasons:
  • English Premier League
  • Spanish Primera Division
  • Italian Serie A
  • German Bundesliga
  • French La Ligue 1
  • USA Major League Soccer
  • World Cup (likely other International matches)

English Premier League

Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United combined to spend £340 million during the transfer window. City set a record with £160 million, the majority of which was spent on obtaining Kevin De Bruyne from Wolfsburg and Raheem Sterling from Liverpool.

The Blues are currently 4-0-0 having found the back of the net ten times and allowed no goals. City remains No. 1 in our Power Rankings and is projected to win the Premier League.

Power Rankings

Rank Team
1 Manchester City
2 Arsenal FC
3 Chelsea FC
4 Manchester United
5 Southampton FC
6 Crystal Palace
7 West Ham United
8 Tottenham Hotspur
9 Leicester City
10 Swansea City
11 Everton FC
12 Liverpool FC
13 Stoke City
14 West Bromwich Albion
15 Aston Villa
16 Newcastle United
17 Sunderland AFC
18 Bournemouth AFC
19 Norwich City
20 Watford FC

Full Season Projections

Team Proj. Wins Proj. Losses Proj. Draws Points
Manchester City 28.1 4.3 5.6 89.9
Arsenal FC 21.1 9.3 7.6 70.9
Chelsea FC 21.2 9.6 7.3 70.9
Manchester United 20.0 9.8 8.3 68.3
Southampton FC 18.3 11.2 8.5 63.4
West Ham United 17.1 13.0 7.9 59.2
Crystal Palace 17.0 13.1 7.9 58.9
Tottenham Hotspur 16.8 13.0 8.2 58.6
Leicester City 16.7 13.4 7.9 58
Swansea City 16.1 13.6 8.3 56.6
Everton FC 15.5 14.3 8.3 54.8
Liverpool FC 15.0 14.0 9.0 54
Stoke City 14.6 14.7 8.7 52.5
West Bromwich Albion 11.2 17.9 8.9 42.5
Aston Villa 10.5 18.6 9.0 40.5
Newcastle United 10.5 19.1 8.4 39.9
Sunderland AFC 10.5 19.5 8.0 39.5
Bournemouth AFC 7.9 24.0 6.1 29.8
Norwich City 7.2 24.9 5.9 27.5
Watford FC 6.8 24.7 6.5 26.9

Spanish Primera Division

Winning is better than sex! At least that is what Barcelona's Sergio Busquets thinks. Luckily for Busquets, we project Barca to win and often. Though not as much as rival Real Madrid. Los Blancos has jumped Barca in our Power Rankings and is the favorite to win the Primera Division.

Power Rankings

Rank Team
1 Real Madrid
2 FC Barcelona
3 Atletico Madrid
4 Villarreal CF
5 Valencia CF
6 Sevilla FC
7 Malaga CF
8 Real Sociedad
9 Espanyol de Barcelona
10 Getafe CF
11 Celta de Vigo
12 Athletic Bilbao
13 Deportivo La Coruna
14 SD Eibar
15 Las Palmas UD
16 Sporting Gijon
17 Levante UD
18 Granada CF
19 Betis Sevilla
20 Rayo Vallecano

Full Season Projections

Team Proj. Wins Proj. Losses Proj. Draws Points
Real Madrid 31.6 2.6 3.8 98.6
FC Barcelona 30.3 2.7 5.0 95.9
Atletico Madrid 26.1 5.7 6.2 84.5
Villarreal CF 25.5 5.7 6.8 83.3
Valencia CF 20.4 8.6 9.0 70.2
Sevilla FC 19.0 12.6 6.4 63.4
Malaga CF 17.1 13.1 7.8 59.1
Real Sociedad 15.9 12.6 9.5 57.2
Espanyol Barcelona 16.4 13.8 7.8 57
Getafe CF 14.7 14.3 9.0 53.1
Celta de Vigo 13.6 14.0 10.4 51.2
Athletic Bilbao 14.2 16.4 7.4 50
Deportivo La Coruna 12.2 15.6 10.2 46.8
Las Palmas UD 8.8 23.4 5.9 32.3
Sporting Gijon 8.6 23.3 6.2 32
SD Eibar 7.4 20.9 9.7 31.9
Levante UD 6.4 24.8 6.8 26
Betis Sevilla 6.8 26.0 5.2 25.6
Granada CF 6.0 24.8 7.2 25.2
Rayo Vallecano 5.2 25.5 7.3 22.9

Italian Serie A

It has been a poor start to the season for Juventus. The reigning Serie A champions opened with consecutive losses as they attempt to win the league for a fifth straight time. Despite the early stumble, Juve is still the most likely Serie A winner.

Power Rankings

Rank Team
1 Juventus Turin
2 Lazio Roma
3 AS Roma
4 SSC Napoli
5 AC Fiorentina
6 Genoa FC
7 Inter Milan
8 AC Milan
9 Sampdoria Genoa
10 Turin FC
11 US Palermo
12 US Sassuolo
13 FC Empoli
14 Hellas Verona
15 Udinese Calcio
16 Atalanta Bergamasca
17 AC Chievo Verona
18 Bologna FC
19 Frosinone Calcio
20 Carpi FC

Full Season Projections

Team Proj. Wins Proj. Losses Proj. Draws Points
Juventus Turin 24.9 5.9 7.2 81.9
Lazio Roma 21.4 9.2 7.3 71.5
AS Roma 19.6 9.9 8.5 67.3
SSC Napoli 19.8 11.1 7.1 66.5
AC Fiorentina 19.1 11.2 7.7 65.0
Genoa FC 18.3 11.9 7.8 62.7
Inter Milan 18.0 12.1 7.9 61.9
AC Milan 17.2 12.8 8.1 59.7
Sampdoria Genoa 16.8 12.5 8.6 59.0
US Palermo 16.1 13.8 8.1 56.4
Turin FC 15.9 13.4 8.6 56.3
US Sassuolo 15.1 14.7 8.2 53.5
FC Empoli 13.8 15.8 8.4 49.8
Hellas Verona 13.3 16.8 8.0 47.9
Udinese Calcio 12.8 16.6 8.6 47.0
Atalanta Bergamasca 8.7 20.8 8.5 34.6
AC Chievo Verona 8.0 21.3 8.6 32.6
Bologna FC 8.2 23.4 6.4 31.0
Frosinone Calcio 7.5 24.2 6.3 28.8
Carpi FC 7.4 24.7 5.9 28.1

German Bundesliga

Dortmund is the surprise of the Bundesliga sitting atop the division with a perfect record and 11 goals scored. Bayern Munich remains the class of the league and Bayern is the most likely champion with Dortmund projected to finish outside the top three.

Power Rankings

Rank Team
1 Bayern Munich
2 VfL Wolfsburg
3 Bayer Leverkusen
4 Borussia Dortmund
5 1899 Hoffenheim
6 Eintracht Frankfurt
7 FC Schalke 04
8 VfB Stuttgart
9 Monchengladbach
10 1 FC Cologne
11 FC Augsburg
12 Hertha BSC
13 Hannover 96
14 Werder Bremen
15 1 FSV Mainz 05
16 SV Darmstadt 98
17 Hamburger SV
18 FC Ingolstadt

Full Season Projections

Team Proj. Wins Proj. Losses Proj. Draws Points
Bayern Munich 29.3 1.4 3.3 91.2
VfL Wolfsburg 21.7 6.4 6.0 71.1
Bayer Leverkusen 19.6 8.3 6.1 64.9
Borussia Dortmund 16.8 10.0 7.2 57.6
1899 Hoffenheim 16.5 11.0 6.5 56.0
Eintracht Frankfurt 16.2 11.9 5.9 54.5
FC Schalke 04 14.4 12.1 7.4 50.6
VfB Stuttgart 14.7 13.5 5.8 49.9
Monchengladbach 13.4 13.4 7.2 47.4
1 FC Cologne 11.3 14.9 7.8 41.7
Hertha BSC 11.6 15.6 6.9 41.7
FC Augsburg 11.1 14.7 8.2 41.5
Hannover 96 11.6 16.1 6.3 41.1
Werder Bremen 10.7 17.0 6.3 38.4
1 FSV Mainz 05 10.1 17.1 6.8 37.1
SV Darmstadt 98 7.5 21.0 5.6 28.1
FC Ingolstadt 6.2 22.4 5.4 24.0
Hamburger SV 5.6 21.6 6.8 23.6

French La Ligue 1

Paris Saint-Germain has yet to concede a goal this season and sit atop Ligue 1. The French champions are in position to capture their four straight title.

Power Rankings

Rank Team
1 Paris St Germain
2 Olympique Lyon
3 Olympique Marseille
4 Stade Rennes
5 AS Saint Etienne
6 Stade Reims
7 SC Bastia
8 AS Monaco
9 OGC Nice
10 FC Nantes
11 FC Girondins Bordeaux
12 FC Lorient
13 SM Caen
14 Toulouse FC
15 Lille OSC
16 Montpellier HSC
17 SCO Angers
18 EA Guingamp
19 Troyes AC
20 Gazelec Ajaccio

Full Season Projections

Team Proj. Wins Proj. Losses Proj. Draws Points
Paris St Germain 26.9 3.5 7.6 88.3
Olympique Lyon 26.2 5.3 6.5 85.1
Olympique Marseille 21.5 8.3 8.2 72.7
Stade Rennes 20.7 9.6 7.7 69.8
AS Saint Etienne 20.0 9.1 8.9 68.9
Stade Reims 19.0 10.5 8.5 65.5
SC Bastia 17.9 10.9 9.2 62.9
AS Monaco 17.0 12.1 8.9 59.9
OGC Nice 16.7 13.1 8.1 58.2
FC Nantes 15.4 12.5 10.2 56.4
FC Girondins Bordeaux 15.5 13.8 8.8 55.3
FC Lorient 13.6 16.1 8.3 49.1
SM Caen 11.5 18.5 8.1 42.6
Toulouse FC 10.8 18.4 8.8 41.2
Lille OSC 10.3 18.3 9.3 40.2
Montpellier HSC 9.7 19.5 8.8 37.9
SCO Angers 10.1 21.4 6.6 36.9
EA Guingamp 8.6 21.9 7.4 33.2
Troyes AC 4.8 28.9 4.3 18.7
Gazelec Ajaccio 4.2 29.0 4.8 17.4

Major League Soccer

DC United is the leader in the East and the LA Galaxy are tops out West but it's the New York Red Bulls that are projected to finish with the most wins. The finish to the MLS season should prove entertaining.

Power Rankings

Rank Team
1 LA Galaxy
2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
3 Seattle Sounders
4 NY Red Bulls
5 Toronto FC
6 Sporting Kansas City
7 San Jose Earthquakes
8 DC United
9 Houston Dynamo
10 FC Dallas
11 Columbus Crew
12 New England Revolution
13 Portland Timbers
14 Montreal Impact
15 Colorado Rapids
16 Orlando City SC
17 New York City FC
18 Real Salt Lake
19 Chicago Fire
20 Philadelphia Union

Full Season Projections

Team Proj. Wins Proj. Losses Proj. Draws Points
NY Red Bulls 16.5 10.3 7.3 56.8
LA Galaxy 16.2 10.0 7.8 56.4
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 15.6 9.2 8.2 55.0
Seattle Sounders 15.3 10.0 8.7 54.6
Toronto FC 15.7 10.7 6.6 53.7
DC United 14.6 11.3 8.1 51.9
Sporting Kansas City 14.7 11.9 7.4 51.5
San Jose Earthquakes 13.3 12.0 8.8 48.7
Columbus Crew 13.8 13.3 6.9 48.3
Houston Dynamo 13.3 12.7 8.0 47.9
New England Revolution 13.1 13.4 7.5 46.8
Montreal Impact 12.3 14.4 7.3 44.2
FC Dallas 12.0 12.9 8.1 44.1
Orlando City SC 11.6 15.1 7.3 42.1
Portland Timbers 11.0 14.1 8.9 41.9
New York City FC 11.3 15.4 7.3 41.2
Colorado Rapids 10.0 13.8 9.2 39.2
Chicago Fire 10.5 16.1 7.4 38.9
Real Salt Lake 9.6 15.8 8.6 37.4
Philadelphia Union 9.6 17.5 6.9 35.7