Soccer Power Rankings (08/07/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Soccer Power Rankings and Full Season Projections.



The European soccer season gets underway this weekend. As such, we will now be simulating every scheduled game from the top five European soccer leagues as well as the MLS.

After every recorded play (penalty, throw-in, free kick, corner, goal, shot, substitution) we will simulate the rest of the game 50,000 times to determine the likelihood of a win, loss or draw for both teams as well as the projected final score.

All games will be available in real-time from the Live ScoreCaster page or in the Live ScoreCaster App on iTunes or Google Play.

Here are the leagues we are covering for their upcoming seasons:
  • English Premier League
  • Spanish Primera Division
  • Italian Serie A
  • German Bundesliga
  • French La Ligue 1
  • USA Major League Soccer
  • World Cup (likely other International matches)

In addition to simulating each match, below we are also providing Power Rankings and full season projections (or rest of season in the case of the MLS) for each of these leagues.

To build the Soccer Power Rankings below, we have "played" every team against every other team 50,000 times, using strength-of-schedule-adjusted statistics, and ranked each team by overall winning percentage in those games.

The full season and rest of season projections are created by simulating each season 50,000 times with updated player and team statistical information to provide projected records and standings for each team in each league.









English Premier League

It has been 20 years since a team outside the traditional powers of Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea has won the Premier League trophy. That streak is likely to continue in the 2015-16 season.

Power Rankings

Rank Team
1 Manchester City
2 Chelsea FC
3 Arsenal FC
4 Manchester United
5 Southampton FC
6 Tottenham Hotspur
7 Liverpool FC
8 Stoke City
9 Swansea City
10 West Ham United
11 Crystal Palace
12 Everton FC
13 Leicester City
14 West Bromwich Albion
15 Newcastle Utd
16 Aston Villa
17 Sunderland AFC
18 Watford FC
19 Bournemouth AFC
20 Norwich City

2015-16 Season Projections

Team Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj Draws Proj Points
Manchester City 25.2 6.4 6.4 82.0
Chelsea FC 23.9 7.0 7.1 78.8
Arsenal FC 22.9 7.9 7.2 75.9
Manchester Utd 21.2 8.9 7.9 71.5
Southampton FC 19.2 10.3 8.5 66.1
Tottenham Hotspur 17.3 12.8 7.9 59.8
Liverpool FC 16.6 13.0 8.4 58.2
Stoke City 15.5 13.8 8.7 55.2
Swansea City 14.7 14.6 8.7 52.8
Everton FC 14.2 15.5 8.3 51.0
Crystal Palace 14.2 15.4 8.4 51.0
West Ham Utd 14.1 15.1 8.7 51.0
Leicester City 13.7 16.0 8.3 49.4
West Bromwich Albion 12.4 16.6 9.0 42.6
Newcastle Utd 11.4 18.2 8.4 36.9
Aston Villa 9.3 19.7 9.0 35.6
Sunderland AFC 8.9 20.2 8.9 32.1
Watford FC 8.5 22.8 6.6 32.1
Bournemouth AFC 8.5 22.9 6.6 32.1
Norwich City 8.5 22.9 6.6

Spanish Primera Division

Barcelona and Real Madrid have won all but one La Liga titles in the past decade. The two powerhouses will battle it out once again for the championship this year.

Power Rankings

Rank Team
1 FC Barcelona
2 Real Madrid
3 Villarreal CF
4 Atletico Madrid
5 Valencia CF
6 Sevilla FC
7 Malaga CF
8 Espanyol Barcelona
9 Real Sociedad
10 Athletic Bilbao
11 Getafe CF
12 Deportivo La Coruna
13 Celta de Vigo
14 SD Eibar
15 Granada CF
16 Rayo Vallecano
17 Levante UD
18 Sporting Gijon
19 Betis Sevilla
20 Las Palmas UD

2015-16 Season Projections

Team Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj Draws Proj Points
FC Barcelona 24.7 5.9 7.4 81.5
Real Madrid 24.5 6.7 6.9 80.4
Villarreal CF 21.4 8.4 8.2 72.4
Atletico Madrid 21.3 8.8 7.9 71.8
Valencia CF 18.7 10.3 9.0 65.1
Sevilla FC 18.6 12.0 7.4 63.2
Malaga CF 17.2 12.5 8.3 59.9
Espanyol Barcelona 16.0 13.5 8.4 56.4
Athletic Bilbao 16.0 14.2 7.8 55.8
Real Sociedad 15.7 13.6 8.7 55.8
Getafe CF 15.2 13.8 9.0 54.6
Deportivo La Coruna 14.1 14.5 9.4 51.7
Celta de Vigo 14.0 14.5 9.5 51.5
SD Eibar 9.5 18.9 9.6 38.1
Granada CF 9.5 19.9 8.3 37.7
Levante UD 9.6 20.3 8.1 36.9
Rayo Vallecano 9.4 20.1 8.5 36.7
Las Palmas UD 8.0 23.8 6.2 30.2
Sporting Gijon 7.9 23.8 6.2 29.9
Betis Sevilla 7.9 23.9 6.2 29.9

Italian Serie A

Juventus has been one of the most successful clubs in Italian football history. Juve has won the last four Serie A titles and is positioned to take the championship once again.

Power Rankings

Rank Team
1 Juventus Turin
2 Lazio Roma
3 AS Roma
4 SSC Napoli
5 AC Fiorentina
6 Genoa FC
7 Inter Milan
8 AC Milan
9 Sampdoria Genoa
10 Turin FC
11 US Palermo
12 US Sassuolo
13 FC Empoli
14 Hellas Verona
15 Udinese Calcio
16 Atalanta Bergamasca
17 AC Chievo Verona
18 Bologna FC
19 Frosinone Calcio
20 Carpi FC

2015-16 Season Projections

Team Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj Draws Proj Points
Juventus Turin 25.7 5.2 7.1 84.2
Lazio Roma 21.8 9.0 7.2 72.6
AS Roma 19.5 9.9 8.6 67.1
SSC Napoli 19.4 11.4 7.2 65.4
AC Fiorentina 18.8 11.4 7.8 64.2
Genoa FC 18.4 11.9 7.7 62.9
Inter Milan 17.9 12.3 7.9 61.6
AC Milan 17.2 12.8 8.0 59.6
Sampdoria Genoa 16.7 12.5 8.9 59.0
Turin FC 15.8 13.6 8.6 56.0
US Palermo 15.6 14.3 8.0 54.8
US Sassuolo 14.6 15.3 8.2 52.0
FC Empoli 14.1 15.5 8.4 50.7
Hellas Verona 13.6 16.4 8.0 48.8
Udinese Calcio 13.1 16.4 8.5 47.8
Atalanta Bergamasca 8.2 21.3 8.5 33.1
AC Chievo Verona 7.7 21.5 8.8 31.9
Bologna FC 7.9 23.8 6.3 30.0
Carpi FC 7.9 23.8 6.3 30.0
Frosinone Calcio 7.9 23.8 6.3 30.0

German Bundesliga

In European soccer, the best teams are usually the ones that win. It is no different in the Bundesliga.

Power Rankings

Rank Team
1 Bayern Munich
2 VfL Wolfsburg
3 Bayer Leverkusen
4 1899 Hoffenheim
5 VfB Stuttgart
6 Monchengladbach
7 Eintracht Frankfurt
8 FC Schalke 04
9 Borussia Dortmund
10 FC Augsburg
11 Hertha BSC
12 Werder Bremen
13 1 FC Cologne
14 Hannover 96
15 1 FSV Mainz 05
16 Hamburger SV
17 FC Ingolstadt
18 SV Darmstadt 98

2015-16 Season Projections

Team Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj Draws Proj Points
Bayern Munich 22.2 5.3 6.5 73.1
Bayer Leverkusen 16.7 10.3 7.0 57.1
VfL Wolfsburg 16.6 10.1 7.3 57.1
1899 Hoffenheim 16.3 10.6 7.1 56.0
VfB Stuttgart 15.5 11.6 6.9 53.4
Monchengladbach 15.1 11.4 7.5 52.8
Eintracht Frankfurt 14.8 12.2 7.0 51.4
FC Schalke 04 14.3 11.8 7.9 50.8
FC Augsburg 13.3 12.9 7.8 47.7
Borussia Dortmund 13.2 12.6 8.1 47.7
Hertha BSC 13.2 13.4 7.4 47.0
Werder Bremen 13.1 13.8 7.1 46.4
1 FC Cologne 12.5 13.4 8.1 45.6
Hannover 96 11.6 16.2 6.2 41.0
1 FSV Mainz 05 10.8 15.9 7.3 39.7
Hamburger SV 8.5 17.6 7.9 33.4
SV Darmstadt 98 7.0 21.2 5.8 26.8
FC Ingolstadt 7.0 21.2 5.8 26.8

French La Ligue 1

Paris Saint-Germain has won the last three Ligue 1 titles. PSG is the betting favorite and our pick to make it four straight years.

Power Rankings

Rank Team
1 Paris Saint-Germain
2 Olympique Lyon
3 Olympique Marseille
4 AS Saint Etienne
5 AS Monaco
6 Stade Rennes
7 SC Bastia
8 Stade Reims
9 FC Lorient
10 OGC Nice
11 FC Nantes
12 FC Girondins Bordeaux
13 Montpellier HSC
14 SM Caen
15 Lille OSC
16 EA Guingamp
17 Toulouse FC
18 Troyes AC
19 Gazelec Ajaccio
20 SCO Angers

2015-16 Season Projections

Team Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj Draws Proj Points
Paris Saint-Germain 23.9 6.2 7.9 79.6
Olympique Lyon 20.8 9.5 7.7 70.1
Olympique Marseille 18.3 11.0 8.8 63.7
AS Saint Etienne 17.4 11.8 8.9 61.1
Stade Rennes 17.5 12.2 8.3 60.9
AS Monaco 17.4 12.0 8.7 60.9
SC Bastia 16.8 12.1 9.1 59.5
FC Lorient 16.8 13 8.3 58.7
Stade Reims 16.4 12.3 9.2 58.4
OGC Nice 15.9 13.1 8.9 56.6
FC Girondins Bordeaux 15.4 14 8.6 54.8
FC Nantes 15.4 13.9 8.7 54.8
Montpellier HSC 15.1 14.3 8.6 53.9
SM Caen 13.6 15.9 8.5 49.3
Lille OSC 12.9 16.4 8.7 47.4
EA Guingamp 12.2 17.5 8.4 45.0
Toulouse FC 8.4 20.8 8.8 34.0
Gazelec Ajaccio 7.8 23.9 6.3 29.8
Troyes AC 7.8 23.9 6.4 29.8
SCO Angers 7.8 23.9 6.4 29.8


Major League Soccer

The 2015 MLS season is half over but nearly every team is still in contention to participate in the MLS Cup Playoffs. The defending MLS Cup champion LA Galaxy and Supporters' Shield winner (team with the best record) Seattle Sounders are two of the three best teams in the league.

Power Rankings

Rank Team
1 Seattle Sounders
2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
3 LA Galaxy
4 Toronto FC
5 Sporting Kansas City
6 Washington DC Utd
7 Houston Dynamo
8 San Jose Earthquakes
9 Orlando City SC
10 NY Red Bulls
11 New England Revolution
12 Columbus Crew
13 Portland Timbers
14 FC Dallas
15 Montreal Impact
16 Real Salt Lake
17 New York City FC
18 Colorado Rapids
19 Chicago Fire
20 Philadelphia Union

2015-16 Season Projections

Team Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj Draws Proj Points
Washington DC Utd 16.4 9.9 7.7 56.9
Sporting Kansas City 15.5 9.0 9.5 56.0
Toronto FC 16.0 10.9 7.1 55.1
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 15.6 11.4 6.0 52.8
FC Dallas 148 11.1 8.1 52.5
NY Red Bulls 14.5 11.2 8.3 51.8
LA Galaxy 14.0 10.3 9.7 51.7
Seattle Sounders 15.5 13.4 5.1 51.6
Portland Timbers 13.1 12.7 8.2 47.5
Columbus Crew 12.4 11.9 9.6 46.8
San Jose Earthquakes 12.8 12.5 7.7 46.1
Houston Dynamo 12.1 12.8 9.1 45.4
New England Revolution 11.8 12.9 9.4 44.8
Montreal Impact 12.4 15.2 6.4 43.6
Orlando City SC 11.2 14.1 8.8 42.4
Real Salt Lake 10.0 12.6 11.3 41.3
Colorado Rapids 8.6 12.3 13.1 38.9
New York City FC 9.7 15.3 9.0 38.1
Chicago Fire 9.5 17.5 7.0 35.5
Philadelphia Union 9.3 18.2 6.4 34.3