Missed Calls (06/09/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
What impact did missed calls have on Game 2 of the NBA Finals?

The NBA has admitted that the referees missed a few calls on key plays in the last two minutes of overtime of Game 2 of the NBA Finals.

What impact did these blown calls have on Cleveland's 95-93 victory over the Golden State Warriors?

With 1:37 to play, Andre Iguodala wasn't called for making contact with LeBron James' arm on a shot attempt as the 24-second shot clock expired. At that time, the Cavs were leading 92-91 and were 53 percent likely to win.

Had the refs whistled Iguodala for the foul, LeBron goes to the line. Assuming King James makes both free throws, Cleveland leads 94-91, the Cavaliers expected win probability increases from 53 percent to 66 percent.

Even if LeBron only makes one free throw (he is shooting 75% from the charity stripe in the playoffs), Cleveland leading 93-91, the Cavs expected win probability still increases by double digits, from 53 percent to 63 percent.

Another missed call occurred with 45 seconds to play. Following a Draymond Green block of James resulting in a tie-up, the NBA says Green should have been called for grabbing LeBron's shoulder and preventing him from leaping during the jump ball.

Instead of calling the foul on Green, LeBron got called for catching the jump ball instead of tipping it. When Golden State got possession because of the missed call, the Warriors became 51 percent likely to win trailing 92-91.

Had Green been called for fouling LeBron and James makes both free throws, the Cavs become 69 percent likely to win leading 94-91.

LeBron didn't get the superstar calls at the end of Game 2 but the Cavaliers still found a way to win. Game 3 of the series tips tonight at 9 pm ET.