Preakness Analysis (05/20/16)

By Dan Zucker
Looked at by many as the “in-between” leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness is my favorite of the three as there is almost always a Triple Crown chance alive heading into the race.

This year is no different as Nyquist looks to take the next step towards horse racing athanasia where he is just 2/1 to win the Triple Crown in future book odds. And while all eyes were on American Pharoah and the capture of his Triple Crown, only two lengths separated California Chrome from the same distinction.

Here are the Pace Figures and odds for Nyquist as compared to Chrome and Pharoah.

California Chrome Final 4f Pattern Odds
Preakness 81.2 76.6 none 1/2
KY Derby 78.8 72.2 none 5/2
Santa Anita Derby 79.2 73.8 none 3/5
American Pharoah Final 4f Pattern Odds
Preakness** 73.4 81.5 NPT 4/5
KY Derby 81.4 73.8 none 3/1
Arkansas Derby 80.2 78.9 DTOP 1/9
Nyquist Final 4f Pattern Odds
Preakness ? ? ? ?
KY Derby 84.1 81.4 none 11/5
Florida Derby 77.5 76.1 SOFT 6/5
** Torrential downpour prior to race, track moved to sloppy

The 2016 eleven horse field features eight new shooters and the second and ninth place finishers in the Kentucky Derby in Exaggerator and Lani.

The two major obstacles for Nyquist are not his competition but rather the toll of running back just two weeks after the Derby and impending rain which could alter the track condition to a sloppy surface.

The Preakness Stakes is run at 9.5 furlongs (1 3/16 miles) for a purse of $1.5mm. Carded as the Thirteenth race on Saturday, NBC Sports will carry the race live with post time at 6:45pm ET.

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