PPR Value Picks (08/18/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
PPR Value Picks – Cheat Sheet.



Last week we provided our picks for the 2015 Fantasy Sleepers, Busts and Breakout Stars. Great reads for players in standard leagues but what about a little help for those in PPR (points-per-reception) leagues?

You've asked and we have delivered.

In the table below are PredictionMachine.com's top 150 fantasy players in PPR leagues. PredictionMachine.com's rankings have been compared to a composite ranking from ESPN and Yahoo. A positive number in the Difference column indicates players PredictionMachine likes (sleepers) more than the composite rank and a negative number suggests players that have the potential to not live up to their average draft position.

Note: Be sure to use the Fantasy Football Draft Machine for an additional edge in all of your drafts. Those looking for a daily fantasy edge should check out our optimal lineups and projections.

Happy drafting!

Value Picks

Travis Kelce
2015 projections: 77.1 receptions, 1,023.4 passing yards, 7.6 TDs
2015 Composite: 3rd tight end, 48th overall
2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 2nd tight end, 29th overall

The concern with Kelce is the Chiefs offense. Andy Reid takes a conservative approach in Kansas City with Alex Smith under center. Those fears have depressed Kelce's average draft position. We are projecting the Chiefs' tight end to finish with over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns; both would rank in the top-25 among all receivers last year. There is a lot of value to be had with Kelce, currently being drafted late in the fifth round.

Shane Vereen
2015 projections: 61.5 receptions, 439.1 rushing yards, 585.8 receiving yards, 8.4 TDs
2015 Composite: 28th running back, 67th overall
2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 19th running back, 38th overall

In an offense with Odell Beckham Jr., everyone else is an afterthought. Vereen is flying under the radar. Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams are slated to get most of the rushing attempts. However, we project Vereen to have career highs in receptions, total yards and total touchdowns. If you want to wait on running backs, the Giants' new third down back is one to target in the middle rounds of your draft.

Atlanta Running Backs
Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will split touches in Atlanta but that is fine with us. Each possess a unique skill set that we project will lead to over a 1,000 total yards for both players. Neither back is likely to become a breakout star but you win your drafts in the middle rounds. Freeman and Coleman are two backs that could be solid flex plays or great bye week fill-ins.

High Prices



Odell Beckham Jr.
2015 projections: 74.8 receptions, 1,172.1 receiving yards, 8.5 TDs
2015 Composite: 4th receiver, 8th overall
2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 16th receiver, 35th overall

Allow me to rain on the Odell Beckham is the “Best Receiver in the World” parade. Over a ten-game stretch to finish the season Beckham averaged eight catches, 123 yards and a touchdown per game. He became the first player in league history to have nine straight games with at least 90-yards receiving. ODB is no fluke but his performance is unsustainable. We are projecting Beckham to have fewer yards and touchdowns in 2015 than he did in 12 games a season ago.

Brandin Cooks
2015 projections: 78.6 receptions, 893.8 receiving yards, 7.2 TDs
2015 Composite: 13th receiver, 30th overall
2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 26th receiver, 69th overall

If you like Cooks, your thought process goes something like this: with Jimmy Graham in Seattle and Kenny Stills in Miami, Cooks is going to be Drew Brees' number one target. That is all true and we don't argue that Cooks is a top-25 receiver but that is a steep price to pay when you can find the same production a few rounds later.

Kelvin Benjamin
2015 projections: 69.7 receptions, 1,002.6 receiving yards, 8.7 TDs
2015 Composite: 20th receiver, 45th overall
2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 29th receiver, 76th overall

The second year player is locked in as Carolina's top receiver and Cam Newton's favorite target. That sounds good but does not necessarily translate to great production. His projections look similar to the numbers he posted last season and his 68.7 receptions rank 39th among all players. Not what you want in a PPR league.

PPR Value Picks

PM Rank Player Pos Team Composite Rank Difference
1 Le'Veon Bell RB PIT 1 0
2 Antonio Brown WR PIT 4 2
3 Jamaal Charles RB KC 2 -1
4 Eddie Lacy RB GB 5 1
5 Adrian Peterson RB MIN 3 -2
6 Rob Gronkowski TE NE 11 5
7 Dez Bryant WR DAL 9 2
8 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA 12 4
9 Calvin Johnson WR DET 16 7
10 Julio Jones WR ATL 6 -4
11 LeSean McCoy RB BUF 21 10
12 C.J. Anderson RB DEN 14 2
13 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN 7 -6
14 DeMarco Murray RB PHI 19 5
15 Matt Forte RB CHI 10 -5
16 A.J. Green WR CIN 15 -1
17 Andrew Luck QB IND 25 8
18 Jeremy Hill RB CIN 23 5
19 Mike Evans WR TB 22 3
20 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI 20 0
21 Jordy Nelson WR GB 18 -3
22 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 28 6
23 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 33 10
24 Lamar Miller RB MIA 29 5
25 Justin Forsett RB BAL 13 -12
26 Jordan Matthews WR PHI 31 5
27 Latavius Murray RB OAK 37 10
28 Julian Edelman WR NE 36 8
29 Travis Kelce TE KC 48 19
30 T.Y. Hilton WR IND 24 -6
31 Randall Cobb WR GB 17 -14
32 Frank Gore RB IND 32 0
33 Jimmy Graham TE SEA 46 13
34 Alfred Morris RB WAS 51 17
35 Odell Beckham WR NYG 8 -27
36 Mark Ingram RB NO 34 -2
37 Greg Olsen TE CAR 54 17
38 Shane Vereen RB NYG 67 29
39 Jarvis Landry WR MIA 58 19
40 Golden Tate WR DET 43 3
41 T.J. Yeldon RB JAC 62 21
42 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 41 -1
43 Brandon Marshall WR NYJ 55 12
44 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 87 43
45 Andre Ellington RB ARI 27 -18
46 Joseph Randle RB DAL 44 -2
47 Melvin Gordon RB SD 40 -7
48 Chris Ivory RB NYJ 73 25
49 Martellus Bennett TE CHI 63 14
50 Todd Gurley RB STL 64 14
51 Vincent Jackson WR TB 76 25
52 Kendall Wright WR TEN 94 42
53 Delanie Walker TE TEN 90 37
54 Amari Cooper WR OAK 83 29
56 Pierre Garcon WR WAS 74 18
57 Jeremy Maclin WR KC 59 2
58 Ladarius Green TE SD 141 83
59 C.J. Spiller RB NO 26 -33
60 Russell Wilson QB SEA 42 -18
61 Carlos Hyde RB SF 50 -11
62 Andre Johnson WR IND 35 -27
63 Tony Romo QB DAL 69 6
64 Ameer Abdullah RB DET 39 -25
65 Cam Newton QB CAR 72 7
66 Tevin Coleman RB ATL 107 41
67 Charles Johnson WR MIN 92 25
68 Eric Decker WR NYJ 71 3
69 Brandin Cooks WR NO 30 -39
70 Jordan Cameron TE MIA 95 25
71 DeSean Jackson WR WAS 61 -10
72 Jason Witten TE DAL 89 17
73 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 56 -17
74 Rashad Jennings RB NYG 82 8
75 Zach Ertz TE PHI 114 39
76 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR 45 -31
77 LeGarrette Blount RB NE 65 -12
78 Keenan Allen WR SD 52 -26
79 John Brown WR ARI 86 7
80 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE TB 104 24
81 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN 38 -43
82 Heath Miller TE PIT 134 52
83 Giovani Bernard RB CIN 53 -30
84 Tre Mason RB STL 111 27
85 Sammy Watkins WR BUF 75 -10
86 Steve Smith WR BAL 70 -16
87 Martavis Bryant WR PIT 78 -9
88 Darren Sproles RB PHI 154 66
89 Bishop Sankey RB TEN 115 26
90 Peyton Manning QB DEN 57 -33
91 Danny Woodhead RB SD 85 -6
92 Alfred Blue RB HOU 122 30
93 Anquan Boldin WR SF 66 -27
94 Mike Wallace WR MIN 81 -13
95 Brandon LaFell WR NE 77 -18
96 Eli Manning QB NYG 84 -12
97 Joique Bell RB DET 100 3
98 Marques Colston WR NO 91 -7
99 Allen Robinson WR JAC 47 -52
100 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA 98 -2
101 Michael Floyd WR ARI 121 20
102 Nelson Agholor WR PHI 131 29
103 Drew Brees QB NO 49 -54
104 Daniel Herron RB IND 182 78
105 Vernon Davis TE SF 142 37
106 Julius Thomas TE JAC 99 -7
108 Tyler Eifert TE CIN 97 -11
109 Duke Johnson RB CLE 110 1
110 Joe Flacco QB BAL 152 42
111 Michael Crabtree WR OAK 144 33
112 Charles Sims RB TB 129 17
113 Matt Ryan QB ATL 68 -45
114 Doug Martin RB TB 80 -34
115 Terrance Williams WR DAL 148 33
117 Rueben Randle WR NYG 140 23
118 Kyle Rudolph TE MIN 113 -5
120 Ryan Mathews RB PHI 112 -8
121 Roddy White WR ATL 60 -61
122 DeAngelo Williams RB PIT 175 53
123 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 79 -44
124 Arian Foster RB HOU 105 -19
125 David Johnson RB ARI 173 48
126 Kenny Stills WR MIA 116 -10
127 Andre Williams RB NYG 166 39
128 Torrey Smith WR SF 101 -27
129 Isaiah Crowell RB CLE 102 -27
130 Reggie Bush RB SF 88 -42
131 Davante Adams WR GB 117 -14
132 Stevie Johnson WR SD 123 -9
133 Brian Quick WR STL 147 14
134 Jordan Reed TE WAS 127 -7
135 Philip Rivers QB SD 109 -26
136 Dwayne Bowe WR CLE 150 14
138 Donte Moncrief WR IND 170 32
139 Andrew Hawkins WR CLE 172 33
140 Jared Cook TE STL N/A N/A
141 Montee Ball RB DEN N/A N/A
142 Stedman Bailey WR STL 188 46
143 Kenny Britt WR STL 185 42
144 Roy Helu RB OAK 137 -7
145 Charles Clay TE BUF 143 -2
146 Brian Hartline WR CLE N/A N/A
147 Theo Riddick RB DET N/A N/A
148 Nick Toon WR NO N/A N/A
149 Breshad Perriman WR BAL 161 12
150 Robert Turbin RB SEA N/A N/A