Conference Odds (10/13/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Power Five conference and division win percentages. Plus the probability undefeated teams win out.



Who's in? That's the question surrounding the College Football Playoff. Before it can be answered we need to figure out which teams will win their respective conferences, as championships won are a criteria for inclusion.

Below are the conference and division win percentages for Power Five teams.

ACC

It's the usual suspects at the top of the ACC. Florida State and Clemson are undefeated and combined have greater than a 65 percent chance to win the conference. Duke and North Carolina could play spoiler. It's a toss-up between the Blue Devils and Tar Heels for the Coastal Division.

Undefeated (chance of winning out)
  • Florida State: 0.0%
  • Clemson: 19.5%

Team Division Win% Conference Win%
Florida State Seminoles 29.1 18.8
Clemson Tigers 69.4 46.8
North Carolina Tar Heels 41.1 16.3
Duke Devils 49.1 15.3
Miami (FL) Hurricanes 0.5 1.2
Louisville Cardinals 1.5 0.7
Pittsburgh Panthers 8.9 2.0
Boston College Eagles 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech Jackets 0.1 0.0
Virginia Tech Hokies 0.2 0.0
North Carolina State Wolfpack 0.0 0.0
Syracuse Orange 0.1 0.0
Wake Forest Deacons 0.0 0.0
Virginia Cavaliers 0.0 0.0

Big Ten

Ohio State was supposed to run away with the conference as defending National Champions but the Buckeyes are no longer the favorite to win the Big Ten. Michigan, +1600 before the season started, is for real. With a stout defense, Jim Harbaugh has the Wolverines competing for the conference title in his first season.

Michigan State is ranked in the AP top ten but barely in the top 25 of our Power Rankings. Sparty is not a real challenger for the title.

Undefeated (chance of winning out)
  • Ohio State: 26.4%, down from 53.3% after beating Virginia Tech in the season opener.
  • Michigan State: 0.4%
  • Iowa: 17.9%

Team Division Win% Conference Win%
Michigan Wolverines 50.5 34.6
Ohio State Buckeyes 43.9 35.2
Iowa Hawkeyes 4.0 1.6
Northwestern Wildcats 3.2 0.7
Wisconsin Badgers 6.4 1.3
Michigan State Spartans 4.0 1.6
Illinois Illini 3.9 0.6
Penn State Lions 1.5 0.6
Minnesota Gophers 0.8 0.1
Nebraska Cornhuskers 0.7 0.1
Indiana Hoosiers 0.1 0.0
Rutgers Knights 0.0 0.0
Maryland Terrapins 0.0 0.0
Purdue Boilermakers 0.0 0.0

Big 12

Baylor's soft schedule, ranks 117th out of 128 teams, but it doesn't matter. The Bears, No. 1 in our Power Rankings, lay waste to all-comers and are the biggest favorites to win their conference of any Power Five program.

TCU and Oklahoma State are each a perfect 6-0 but neither team is a threat to win the Big 12. After an embarrassing loss to Texas as 17-point favorites, Oklahoma has less than a two percent chance to win the conference.

Undefeated (chance of winning out)
  • Baylor: 35.9%
  • TCU: 10.0%
  • Oklahoma State: 1.9%

Team Conference Win%
Baylor Bears 76.9
TCU Frogs 16.3
Oklahoma State Cowboys 5.8
Oklahoma Sooners 1.0
Texas Tech Raiders 0.0
West Virginia Mountaineers 0.0
Kansas State Wildcats 0.0
Texas Longhorns 0.0
Iowa State Cyclones 0.0
Kansas Jayhawks 0.0

Pac-12

Utah is the last remaining undefeated team in the Pac-12 but the Utes aren't getting any love from us. USC, a team with a losing conference record that just had its coach fired, is more likely to win the Pac-12. The real champion, is quietly flying under the radar. Stanford is well positioned to win the conference. The Cardinal is a fringe top ten team that benefits from an underperforming USC and an overrated Utah.

Undefeated (chance of winning out)
  • Utah: 0.6%

Team Division Win% Conference Win%
Stanford Cardinal 85.4 58.9
USC Trojans 19.6 10.4
Utah Utes 27.6 6.5
UCLA Bruins 17.6 5.4
Arizona State Devils 22.7 5.9
California Bears 11.9 7.0
Arizona Wildcats 12.3 4.6
Washington Huskies 1.7 0.7
Oregon Ducks 1.0 0.5
Washington State Cougars 0.0 0.0
Oregon State Beavers 0.0 0.0
Colorado Buffaloes 0.3 0.0

SEC

Alabama is the better team, but LSU is the most likely champion. Leonard Fournette has the Bayou Bengals in the driver's seat for the SEC title but the conference is far from decided. LSU, Bama, A&M and Ole Miss could all win the West. The East is a two horse race that got more interesting with the suspension of Florida's starting quarterback. Will Grier's PED suspension lowered the Gators' chance of winning the East by eight percent and its SEC title odds by seven percent.

Undefeated (chance of winning out)
  • LSU: 0.0%
  • Texas A&M: 0.0%
  • Florida: 0.9%

Team Division Win% Conference Win%
LSU Tigers 53.5 40.0
Alabama Tide 31.9 21.4
Florida Gators 76.1 18.9
Georgia Bulldogs 23.3 11.7
Texas A&M Aggies 7.0 3.4
Ole Miss Rebels 5.9 3.5
Arkansas Razorbacks 1.5 0.9
Kentucky Wildcats 0.3 0.0
Tennessee Volunteers 0.2 0.0
Missouri Tigers 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt Commodores 0.1 0.0
South Carolina Gamecocks 0.0 0.0
Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.0 0.0
Auburn Tigers 0.1 0.0