Player vs Player Props (02/04/16)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Player vs. Player Props for Super Bowl 50.



All projected stats are averages from the 50,000 simulations of Super Bowl 50. All props are courtesy of Bovada.LV.

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Manning vs. Newton

Who will have more passing yards? Team Position Spread
Peyton Manning DEN QB -150
Cam Newton CAR QB +120

Denver throws the ball more often than league average and Carolina is one of two teams to run more than it passed the ball this season. Peyton is favored to attempt and complete more passes in the Super Bowl. Manning is also favored to finish with more passing yards. Yet, in our simulations the two quarterbacks battle to a draw facing two of the best pass defenses of the last decade.

Projected Passing Yards: Manning 226.8, Newton 226.0
Pick: Newton

Thomas vs. Sanders

Who will have more receiving yards? Team Position Spread
Demaryius Thomas DEN WR Even
Emmanuel Sanders DEN WR -130

In the regular season Thomas was Manning's favorite target. “Bay Bay” caught 105 balls for 1,304 yards. Sanders was second on the team with 76 catches for 1,135 receiving yards. In the postseason Manning has distributed his passes equally (Thomas 15, Sanders 16) but it is Sanders who has been more productive. The former Steelers wideout has averaged 14.7 yards per catch. Sanders is projected to continue doing more with his targets in Super Bowl 50.

Projected Receiving Yards: Thomas 66.4, Sanders 70.2
Pick: Sanders

Newton vs. Anderson

Who will have more rushing yards? Team Position Spread
Cam Newton CAR QB +17.5 (-115)
C.J. Anderson DEN RB -17.5 (-115)

The public loves Cam Newton. The Panthers quarterback is a 5/7 favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP. Cam can burn teams with his arm and legs. Newton led all quarterbacks in the regular season in rushing (636 yards). There is even a prop for Cam to break the record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in the Super Bowl (he would need to top 64 yards on the ground). Even though the general consensus seems to be that Newton will have success against Denver, the right play here is to back Anderson. The Denver running back is favored by 17.5 yards and is projected to double up Newton on the ground.

Projected Yards: Newton 32.1, Anderson 74.9
Pick: Anderson -17.5

Stewart vs. Hillman



Who will have more rushing yards? Team Position Spread
Jonathan Stewart CAR RB -29.5 (-115)
Ronnie Hillman DEN RB +29.5 (-115)

Stewart is a big favorite over the second cog in Denver's backfield. The Carolina back gets the lion's share of touches having averaged 19 attempts in the Panthers' two playoff games. Hillman has been in a time share all season and it's been hard to project how the Broncos will split the carries from game to game. Still, Hillman should get double digit rushing attempts and he should be efficient enough to keep this matchup close.

Projected Yards: Stewart 60.3, Hillman 38.7
Pick: Hillman +29.5

Olsen vs. Daniels

Who will have more receiving yards? Team Position Spread
Greg Olsen CAR TE -35.5 (-115)
Owen Daniels DEN TE +35.5 (-115)

Don't get cute. Sure Daniels is fresh in your mind after catching two balls for touchdowns against the Patriots but he is the third option in the Broncos passing attack. Daniels has averaged fewer than five targets per game. Olsen, a Pro Bowler, gets nearly eight targets from Cam every time they suit up. Olsen is the better player and will get more opportunities.

Projected Yards: Olsen 68.9, Daniels 27.9
Pick: Olsen -35.5

Brown vs. Ginn

Who will have more receiving yards? Team Position Spread
Corey Brown CAR WR +2.5 (-115)
Ted Ginn Jr. CAR WR -2.5 (-115)

Ginn has some of the worst hands in the NFL, which is bad when you are a receiver. He has had three or fewer targets in five of the Panthers last seven games. Brown has averaged nearly five targets per game over that same stretch. Ginn is favored but Brown will be the winner.

Projected Yards: Ginn 37.9, Brown 39.6
Pick: Brown +2.5