Player vs. Player Props (01/27/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Super Bowl Player vs. Player Props –All projected stats are averages from the 50,000 simulations of Super Bowl XLIX. All props courtesy of Bovada.LV.

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Brady vs. Wilson

Who will have more Passing TDs in the game? Team Position Spread
Tom Brady NE QB -0.5 (-130)
Russell Wilson SEA QB +0.5 (+100)

Brady threw 33 touchdowns passes in the regular season and has tossed six more in the playoffs. Wilson has just 24 touchdown passes in 18 games. It's clear why Brady is favored yet our projections have the Super Bowl quarterbacks battling to a draw.

Projected Touchdowns: Brady 1.4, Wilson 1.3

Pick: Wilson +0.5

Blount vs. Lynch

Who will have more Rushing Yards in the game? Team Position Spread
LeGarrette Blount NE RB +29.5 (-115)
Marshawn Lynch SEA RB -29.5 (-115)

The key matchup in our analysis is Seattle's run offense, led by Lynch, vs. New England's run defense. The Patriots rank 14th in defensive rushing efficiency, the only unit for either team ranked outside the top ten.

We expect Lynch to approach his season averages in efficiency with a slight step up in production.

Projected Yards: Blount 58.7, Lynch 100.7

Pick: Lynch -29.5

Vereen vs. Turbin

Who will have more Rushing Yards in the game? Team Position Spread
Shane Vereen NE RB Pick (-115)
Robert Turbin SEA RB Pick (-115)

The oddsmakers do not have an opinion on this prop as it is listed a Pick but we do. Turbin averaged 4.6 carries and 19.4 yards per game in the regular season, Vereen averaged 24.4 yards per game on six carries. In a matchup where we expect the Seahawks to exploit the Patriots run defense, there is value in betting Lynch's backup even though Vereen has a better regular season average.

Projected Yards: Vereen 12.7, Turbin 20.5

Pick: Turbin Pick

Edelman vs. Kearse

Who will have more Receiving Yards in the game? Team Position Spread
Julian Edelman NE WR -25.5 (-115)
Jermaine Kearse SEA WR +25.5 (-115)

In 14 regular season games Edelman averaged nearly 70 yards per contest and in the playoffs he has been Brady's favorite target. Kearse is a boom-or-bust receiver but the receiver that caught the game winning touchdown in the NFC Championship is expected to keep it close.

Projected Yards: Edelman 61.6, Kearse 48.8

Pick: Kearse +25.5

Amendola vs. Lynch

Who will have more Receiving Yards in the game? Team Position Spread
Danny Amendola NE WR Pick (EVEN)
Marshawn Lynch SEA RB Pick (-130)

If Kearse can be inconsistent then Amendola can be completely irrelevant from game to game. Wes Welker's replacement has been targeted once or zero times in eight games this season. Amendola produced a monster game against the Ravens in the playoffs totaling 81 yards and two touchdowns but then disappeared against the Colts in the AFC Championship Game (one catch, eight yards).

Lynch isn't heavily involved in the Seahawks passing game but he should be able to beat a player that often goes missing from the boxscore.

Projected Yards: Amendola 14.0, Lynch 22.1

Pick: Lynch Pick

Edelman vs. Gronkowski

Who will have more Receiving Yards in the game? Team Position Spread
Julian Edelman NE WR +4.5 (-115)
Rob Gronkowski NE TE -4.5 (-115)

We fully expect Gronkowski to Gronk this prop bet. The Patriots tight end is projected to lead all players in receiving yards in the Super Bowl. Hopefully his Gronking doesn't cause any deflation.

Projected Yards: Edelman 61.6, Gronkowski 70.7

Pick: Gronkowski -4.5