NFL Picks - 9/24/2017

Last Updated: 9/25/2017 1:50 AM ET
If you are getting a different line than our projection, simply access the Play Analyzer, which allows you to see picks at current consensus lines or input your own against-the-spread and over/under lines. Sign up for weekly Play Analyzer email alerts on Sunday mornings here. Also, to know who we project to be OUT of each game, check out our injuries information. The Play Value ($) assumes a "normal" $50 play.
Full analysis for each Week 3 game can be found in our NFL Week 3: In-Depth Analysis article.

Update: The Vikings/Bucs matchup has now been simulated after confirmation that Sam Bradford is OUT and a betting line has been widely posted.

AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times) Print Table
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $ Calc
470 1:00 PM @BUF Upset Watch Lock of the Week DEN 3 0.2 57.4 $53
481 4:05 PM SEA @ TEN 3 -0.4 56.7 $45
466 1:00 PM @CHI PIT 7 -4.9 55.8 $36
461 9:30 AM BAL @ JAC -3.5 5.2 54.9 $26
467 1:00 PM MIA @ NYJ -6.5 8.1 54.8 $25
463 1:00 PM CLE @ IND -1 2.8 54.1 $18
483 4:25 PM KC @ LAC -3 4.6 54.0 $17
485 4:25 PM CIN @ GB 9 -8.2 52.2 $0
471 1:00 PM HOU @ NE 13.5 -12.8 51.9 $0
476 1:00 PM @MIN TB 2.5 -2.0 51.2 $0
487 8:30 PM OAK @ WAS -3 3.4 51.0 $0
478 1:00 PM @DET ATL 3 -2.8 50.4 $0
479 1:00 PM NYG @ PHI 6 -5.9 50.3 $0
474 1:00 PM @CAR NO -5.5 5.6 50.3 $0


STRAIGHT-UP PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times) Print Table
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win%
472 1:00 PM @ NE HOU 29.0 16.2 81.3
467 1:00 PM MIA @ NYJ 25.3 17.1 71.0
486 4:25 PM @ GB CIN 28.0 19.8 70.0
480 1:00 PM @ PHI NYG 23.1 17.2 65.6
474 1:00 PM @ CAR NO 24.4 18.8 65.0
461 9:30 AM BAL vs JAC 20.9 15.7 63.7
465 1:00 PM PIT @ CHI 23.8 19.0 62.6
483 4:25 PM KC @ LAC 27.7 23.1 61.0
487 8:30 PM OAK @ WAS 30.6 27.2 57.8
477 1:00 PM ATL @ DET 27.9 25.0 56.8
463 1:00 PM CLE @ IND 23.7 20.9 56.5
475 1:00 PM TB @ MIN 20.7 18.7 55.2
482 4:05 PM @ TEN SEA 20.0 19.7 51.2
470 1:00 PM @ BUF DEN 18.6 18.4 50.2


OVER/UNDER PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times) Print Table
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% $ Calc
464 1:00 PM CLE @ IND 40.5 44.6 Over 56.9 $47
462 9:30 AM BAL vs JAC 40 36.7 Under 56.4 $42
470 1:00 PM DEN @ BUF 40 36.9 Under 56.1 $39
474 1:00 PM NO @ CAR 46.5 43.2 Under 55.7 $35
488 8:30 PM OAK @ WAS 54 57.8 Over 55.2 $30
484 4:25 PM KC @ LAC 47.5 50.8 Over 55.2 $30
486 4:25 PM CIN @ GB 44.5 47.8 Over 55.2 $30
482 4:05 PM SEA @ TEN 42 39.7 Under 54.1 $18
480 1:00 PM NYG @ PHI 42.5 40.3 Under 54.0 $17
478 1:00 PM ATL @ DET 50.5 52.9 Over 53.6 $13
472 1:00 PM HOU @ NE 44 45.2 Over 52.1 $0
466 1:00 PM PIT @ CHI 44 42.8 Under 51.9 $0
476 1:00 PM TB @ MIN 39 39.4 Over 50.8 $0
468 1:00 PM MIA @ NYJ 42 42.4 Over 50.7 $0

ADDITIONAL GAME INFORMATION
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Boxscore Breakdown Broadcast Analyze Live
462 9:30 AM BAL vs JAC Boxscore Breakdown Not available Analyze Live
464 1:00 PM CLE @ IND Boxscore Breakdown CBS Analyze Live
466 1:00 PM PIT @ CHI Boxscore Breakdown CBS Analyze Live
468 1:00 PM MIA @ NYJ Boxscore Breakdown CBS Analyze Live
470 1:00 PM DEN @ BUF Boxscore Breakdown CBS Analyze Live
472 1:00 PM HOU @ NE Boxscore Breakdown CBS Analyze Live
474 1:00 PM NO @ CAR Boxscore Breakdown FOX Analyze Live
476 1:00 PM TB @ MIN Boxscore Breakdown FOX Analyze Live
478 1:00 PM ATL @ DET Boxscore Breakdown FOX Analyze Live
480 1:00 PM NYG @ PHI Boxscore Breakdown FOX Analyze Live
482 4:05 PM SEA @ TEN Boxscore Breakdown FOX Analyze Live
484 4:25 PM KC @ LAC Boxscore Breakdown CBS Analyze Live
486 4:25 PM CIN @ GB Boxscore Breakdown CBS Analyze Live
488 8:30 PM OAK @ WAS Boxscore Breakdown NBC Analyze Live

In the picks above, Margin, Points For, Points Against and Total Points are averages from 50,000 games played. The Win% ATS is the percentage of games in which the team picked covers the noted spread. Similarly, the Pick% in the Over/Under table is the percentage of time that the Over or Under pick covers the total. These values represent the Predictalator's confidence in the pick and are used in the Play Value Key and Calculator. With RL and O/U plays assumed to be -110, anything less than 52.38% confidence is not considered to be a worthwhile pick. To alter odds or to evaluate money-line plays, click on "Calc" and adjust the Odds in the Play Value Calculator. Clicking on the "Play" button will allow you to run that game through the Customizable Predictalator. An "Upset Watch" icon will appear next to games where we believe the underdog is more like than not to win outright. Picks will be updated as needed due to injury (up to one hour before game time).