4-Team Playoff Odds (07/09/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Odds to make or miss the College Football Playoff. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.

Who's in your four-team College Football Playoff?

It probably includes a few of the oddsmakers' favorites to qualify for the second ever playoff.

Since winning the championship, Ohio State, with fifteen returning starters, has been the early favorite to repeat. The Buckeyes are the only team that does not have plus money odds to make the playoffs. Urban Meyer's team is -250 (bet $250 to win $100) to return to the postseason.

If TCU hadn't blown a 21-point fourth quarter lead to Baylor last season the Horned Frogs go undefeated and are likely invited to the four-team playoff, and from there anything could have happened. It is tough to swallow missing out on the postseason when you are a one-loss co-champion of your conference but TCU will have a chance to wash that bad taste out of its mouth when the 2015 season kicks off. With Heisman favorite (6/1) Trevone Boykin leading one of the most explosive offenses in the country, the Horned Frogs have the second best odds (+140) to make the playoffs.

The SEC has four teams with odds to reach the playoffs: Alabama +175, Auburn +300, Georgia +400 and LSU +550. Could two teams from the same conference make the four-team playoff? The bookmakers give +300 odds to have two of the four spots taken by teams from the same league (-500 that it doesn't occur).

All four teams from last year's College Football Playoff have odds to return but Oregon and Florida State are each -500 to miss the postseason.

Oklahoma is the biggest longshot to make the playoffs (+800). The Sooners are -2500 to not finish as one of the top four teams in college football.

According to the odds, the most likely playoff will include Ohio State, TCU and Alabama. The fourth member is up in the air. Auburn, Florida State, Oregon and USC are all +300 to make the playoff, and Baylor and Georgia are each +400 to be one of the final four teams.

Odds to make and miss the four-team playoff

Team Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Miss Playoffs
Alabama +175 -250
Auburn +300 -500
Baylor +400 -750
Clemson +450 -750
Florida State +300 -500
Georgia +400 -750
LSU +550 -1200
Michigan State +550 -1200
Notre Dame +600 -1600
Ohio State -250 +175
Oklahoma +800 -2500
Oregon +300 -500
TCU +140 -180
UCLA +600 -1600
USC +300 -500