NHL Playoff Odds

Last Updated: 8/19/2014 10:04 PM ET
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The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. Each Stanley Cup bracket is played individually, with the team that wins the series in each unique instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

In the most likely Stanley Cup Finals, the Boston Bruins (18.1% overall to win Cup) win over the St. Louis Blues (11.2%) in a matchup between two number two seeds. The Pittsburgh Penguins, the East's fourth seed, have a 16.6% chance to win it all. The New Jersey Devils, a six seed in the East and the Detroit Red Wings a five seed in the West, are the only teams projected to win (more often than not) their first round series in upsets (over the Florida Panthers and Nashville Predators respectively). While the Chicago Blackhawks vs. Phoenix Coyotes series is the closest in the first round (Coyotes win 51.0% of the time), the most important first round series may be between in-state rivals Pittsburgh and the Philadelphia Flyers. The winner of that series goes on to win the Stanley Cup 23.9% of the time (the most of any series - by far). In total, the Eastern Conference has a 55.7% chance to win the title.

NHL Stanley Cup Odds (based on 2012 NHL Playoffs played 50,000 times):
RegionSeedTeamConf SemifinalsConf FinalsStanley Cup FinalsChamp.
Eastern1NYR62.0%29.0%14.2%7.4%
Eastern8Ott38.0%13.7%5.3%2.1%
Eastern4Pit59.5%45.0%26.1%16.6%
Eastern5Phi40.6%27.6%13.8%7.3%
Eastern3Fla40.2%9.6%2.7%0.8%
Eastern6NJ59.8%17.8%6.3%2.6%
Eastern2Bos77.1%49.0%28.9%18.1%
Eastern7Was22.9%8.3%2.6%0.8%
RegionSeedTeamConf SemifinalsConf FinalsStanley Cup FinalsChamp.
Western1Van62.7%34.6%21.2%10.8%
Western8LA37.3%16.1%7.5%2.6%
Western4Nsh47.2%26.0%11.5%4.6%
Western5Det52.8%31.4%15.2%6.8%
Western3Pho51.0%22.3%8.9%3.3%
Western6Chi49.0%20.3%7.9%2.9%
Western2StL65.0%35.4%21.9%11.2%
Western7SJ35.0%13.9%5.9%2.1%
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