NHL Futures (1/13/14)

By John Ewing
After 50,000 simulations of the NHL Playoffs we find value in Stanley Cup odds. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.


 
To setup our NHL Playoffs, we used our rest of season projections to determine which teams would make the postseason. As a result, a couple teams (Detroit and Minnesota) that are currently in the postseason, if the playoffs started today, miss out. To better understand the NHL’s new playoff format, use this guide to 2013-14 NHL realignment.
 
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Stanley Cup and compare that to our projected odds that they win the Cup. For example, St. Louis is listed at 6/1 to win the championship; in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Blues they would need to win it all 14.3% (which is 1/(1+6)) of the time. We project St. Louis to win it all 42.5% of the time, meaning there is value in placing a bet at 6/1 odds.
 
St. Louis Blues (31-8-5, 67 points, 2nd in Central)
Current odds: 6/1, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 14.3%
St. Louis wins the Stanley Cup 42.5% of the time
 
The Blues are No. 1 in our Power Rankings. They are the only team that is top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency rankings. Favorite stat: five on five goals for/against ratio, Blues best in NHL with a difference of 1.6 goals.
 
Pittsburgh Penguins (31-8-5, 67 points, 2nd in Central)
Current odds: 13/2, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 13.3%
Pittsburgh wins the Stanley Cup 15.9% of the time
 
Sidney Crosby is a 1/6 favorite to win the Hart Memorial Trophy, the NHL’s most valuable player award. Crosby leads the NHL in points (67) with 25 goals and 42 assists. If Crosby can stay healthy the Penguins are set to make a deep run in the playoffs.
 
Below are the odds for each team to win the Stanley Cup, plus odds needed to place a wager and our projected odds for each team.
 
Team Stanley Cup Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
Blackhawks 11/2 15.4% 12.6%
Blues 6/1 14.3% 42.5%
Penguins 13/2 13.3% 15.9%
Ducks 8/1 11.1% 7.1%
Bruins 8/1 11.1% 7.8%
Sharks 9/1 10.0% 4.0%
Kings 14/1 6.7% 3.7%
Avalanche 22/1 4.3% 0.4%
Lightning 22/1 4.3% 3.0%
Canadiens 25/1 3.8% 1.2%
Flyers 25/1 3.8% 0.2%
Canucks 25/1 3.8% 0.2%
Rangers 28/1 3.4% 0.3%
Capitals 33/1 2.9% 0.8%
Devils 50/1 2.0% 0.2%
Coyotes 50/1 2.0% 0.1%