NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 16 (12/22/16)

By Mark Dankenbring
DFS Football Value Plays – Week 16



With Week 16 of the NFL season upon us, let's take a look at who sets up to have the most value based on their salary in daily fantasy for DraftKings and FanDuel. With injuries opening up expanded roles for certain players, and favorable matchups determined after 15 weeks of action, we have a solid list of value plays this week. Value plays are centered around players who are below the average salary cost for their position and will produce the most points per dollar spent. Below are a list of some highlighted players on both platforms, but to see a full ranking of players and their value this week, visit our Optimizer tool for full control over your lineup.

Each player is listed with their salary and projected points for the week.

DraftKings

Quarterbacks



RG3 and the Browns will host the Chargers in Cleveland this Saturday. RG3 has continued to struggle passing the ball this season, as he's yet to eclipse 200 yards in a game, and he hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in his three starts this season. However, he has created fantasy value with his legs, as he's run for 79 yards and two touchdowns in his past two games. He'll face a Chargers defense that has allowed a touchdown pass in all but two games this season, and 200+ passing yards in all but one game. With a Cleveland defense that is still struggling to stop all aspects of the opposing team's offensive attack, expect the Browns to be playing from behind again and to look to Griffin III to lead a comeback.



Bortles enters Saturday coming off the first sub 100-yard passing game of his career. Luckily for him, he'll face a Titans defense in which he posted his best game of the season against. In their first matchup, Bortles threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns, and also led the team in rushing with 22 yards. Tennessee's secondary has continued to struggle all season, as they've allowed the third most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks on the season. Bortles will be chomping at the bit to play a weak secondary, as he's faced the Broncos, Vikings, and Texans in three consecutive weeks. Look for the Jaguars to continue to air it out under interim head coach Doug Marrone, and for Bortles to have a solid performance coming off the worst game of his career.



The Bears will host the Washington Redskins on Saturday, who will have a very short week to prepare as they just played on Monday night. Washington has struggled mightily against the pass this season, and have allowed quarterbacks to throw for at least 300 yards in five of their last six games. Barkley just added Alshon Jeffery back into his arsenal of weapons, and has posted 300+ yard passing games in two of his three home games this season (the other being the snow game against the 49ers). Therefore, facing off against a Redskins team that has allowed the fourth most FanDuel points to opposing QBs lines Barkley up well to have another solid passing day in Chicago.

Running Backs



Yeldon enters Saturday stuck in a time share with Chris Ivory, but has clearly emerged as the favorite back on passing downs. After catching five more passes last week, Yeldon is now up to 50 receptions on the season. The Titans have been stingy against running backs on the ground, but have allowed opposing backs to catch plenty of passes out of the backfield. In their first matchup, Yeldon caught four passes for 36 yards. He has been decent on the ground as well over the past few games, averaging over 3.5 yards per carry which has led to three straight games of at least 11.2 DraftKings points. In a game that the Jaguars will likely be trailing, look for Yeldon to get the majority of the action in the backfield once the Jaguars are forced to throw.



Sproles enters Week 16 after missing last week's game with a concussion. He'll square off against a Giants team tonight as the clear number two back in Philly now that Kenjon Barner and Wendell Smallwood have both landed on the IR. In their first matchup with the Giants, Sproles ran for 57 yards on 13 carries, and was also targeted nine times in the passing game. He was only able to haul in three, but it's clear they want to utilize him against a tough Giants defense. In his last seven games, Sproles has eclipsed 10 DraftKings points in six of them, and has over 15 points in three of those. Look for Sproles to be involved plenty in the passing game tonight, and for him to see even more carries with Barner and Smallwood on the sideline.


Wide Receivers



After coming back from injury in Week 9, Coleman has caught at least three passes in every game. It's clear the Browns want to get Coleman more involved in the offense, as he's been targeted 15 times in the two recent games he's played with RG3, and has seen at least seven targets in five of his eight games this season. The Browns passing attack hasn't been much outside of Terrelle Pryor this year, so look for them to continue to get Coleman involved this Saturday against the Chargers. He's a big play waiting to happen, so one catch can make his fantasy week. At his lowest salary of the year at only $3,900 this week, he could provide great value for a Browns team that is desperate for a win.



After Brock Osweiler exited the game last Sunday, Hopkins found much more success with backup Tom Savage. Hopkins caught 8 of 14 targets for 87 yards from Savage, good enough for his second most catches and yards in a game this season. With Savage announced as the starter, Hopkins will finally have WR1 value against the Bengals on Saturday night. The Bengals secondary doesn't have a shutdown corner to stick on Hopkins all game, as they're more successful by committee, so look for Hopkins to remain heavily involved in the offensive game plan as he was targeted 17 times last week. With a salary all the way down from $8,800 at the beginning of the season, Hopkins lines up to be a great value play this Saturday.



Thomas enters Week 16 about to face a Buccaneers defense that didn't see him due to a foot injury in their first matchup two weeks ago. Thomas and the Saints will head back to the Superdome, and will hope to light up Tampa Bay, who didn't allow a touchdown to the Saints in Week 14. It's hard to imagine a defense holding Drew Brees without a touchdown multiple times in one season, especially now that he'll have his full compliment of weapons. Thomas has been targeted 26 times in the last three games, including two games of 10+ targets, which has led to 202 yards receiving and three touchdowns. Look for Thomas to be heavily involved against a defense that did not see him in their first matchup, and for Brees to be on his game this Saturday at home.

Tight Ends



Witten and the Cowboys will square off against the Lions at home this Monday, where Witten just caught all 10 of his targets last week against the Buccaneers. The Lions will come into Dallas having allowed the 7th most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends this season. Witten has been a safety blanket for Prescott all season, and will likely be once again in Week 16 as the Lions have allowed 20 points or less in their last eight games. They've been solid against the run and against wide receivers this season, so look for Witten to be a key part of the offensive attack this Monday night.



The Colts will head to Oakland and face off against a Raiders team that is the third highest scoring team in the league. Therefore, with the Colts possessing a defense that is bottom 10 in the NFL in scoring, the offense will likely have to pick up the slack and create a shootout to potentially beat the Raiders. Doyle has been a consistent target in the offense for Andrew Luck, as he's caught at least four passes in the last three games. The Raiders have been susceptible to opposing tight ends this year, as they've allowed the 11th most DraftKings points to them on the season, including two straight games of at least 14.8 points to opposing TEs. Look for Doyle to get several looks this Saturday in Oakland, and to potentially turn one of them into a touchdown.


FanDuel

Quarterbacks



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Running Backs



Ware and the Chiefs will square off against the Broncos on Sunday night for the second time in the last five weeks. Ware accounted for 96 total yards in the first matchup, but failed to make it into the end zone. Denver has been pretty susceptible to the run this year, allowing nearly 22 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs, and have struggled even more in recent weeks, having allowed over 130 yards and a touchdown in their last two games. Ware continues to be the primary workhorse in the Chiefs' backfield, as he's seen at least 15 touches in all but two games this season. Also, the weather is supposed to be sloppy in Kansas City on Sunday night, so look for the Chiefs to rely on Ware even more against a Denver defense that has struggled much more against the run this year compared to the pass.



In taking over the RB1 position from Matt Forte for the last two weeks, Powell has shown he's more than capable of handling an extensive workload. As we enter Week 16, Forte missed practice on Wednesday with a nerve issue in his shoulder, and is still dealing with a torn meniscus in his knee, which complicates his status for Saturday even more. Powell has been great in his absence, totaling over 150 yards from scrimmage again last week in Miami, as he ran for 84 yards on 16 carries and caught 11 passes for 78 yards out of the backfield. Powell is clearly the most dynamic option in the Jets offense at this point, so Petty will likely try to feed him the ball as much as possible against the Patriots. Look for Powell to have another solid week carrying the load for the Jets.

Wide Receivers



Crabtree will enter Saturday's game against the Colts having had at least 15 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. Crabtree has been a target machine for Oakland, as he's averaging 10 per game over his last eight games. Indianapolis has been solid against wide receivers in fantasy this season, but have been exposed against teams with multiple weapons at the wide out position. They allowed three touchdowns to opposing wide receivers on Green Bay and Pittsburgh, and allowed the Chiefs and Jaguars to each score two as well. I expect Crabtree and the Raiders offense to have a successful day against the Colts, so look for him to provide solid value this Saturday.



Snead will face off against a Buccaneers defense this weekend in which he caught six of eight targets against for 85 yards two weeks ago in Tampa Bay. Snead has been a model of consistency at the wide receiver position, as he's seen at least seven targets in eight of the last ten games, with the other two games totaling 11 targets. It's hard to imagine a team holding the Saints without a touchdown in two consecutive games, so I expect New Orleans' offense to be rolling this Saturday at home. With that being said, look for Snead and the rest of the receiving corps to have a solid day against the Buccaneers.



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Tight Ends



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