NFL Week 9 Daily Fantasy Targets (11/04/16)
We have simulated every Week 9 game 50,000 times. This allows us to rank all players based on their expected fantasy football output in the upcoming game. For salary cap leagues, we have added $/FP to uncover players with the greatest value. Salary values represent the cost per projected fantasy point for default public leagues on DraftKings and FanDuel, two of the top websites that specialize in daily fantasy sports games.
Check out the Optimal Daily Fantasy Lineups for the week and build Customized Projections and Lineups. You can also use our Next Man Up Tool to remove certain players and resimulate the game to get updated projections.
Pretty simply, Prescott will face a terrible Browns defense this week and his price is too low. He is at leaest $1,000 cheaper than the top tier guys against one of the worst defenses in the league. Dez Bryant came back from injury last week and Prescott looked more willing to throw the ball down the field. His completion percentage was not great, but points are not acquired in daily fantasy for completion percentage. Dak completed a number of deep throws to Dez Bryant and threw for 282 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for one.
Despite the Cowboys' offense running the ball successfully, Dak still attempted 39 throws, his highest since Week 1. If he comes anywhere close to that this week, he should have a lot of success. The Browns rank second to last in yards per play (6.4 yards) and yards per attempt passing (8.4 yards).
Colin Kaepernick is not an attractive option for fantasy players. In his first two starts this season, he's completed 13 of 29 and 16 of 34 pass attempts for a 46% completion rate. We should expect this to increase this week against another terrible Saints defense. Despite the poor performances, Kaepernick has thrown for two touchdowns thus far but a more attractive piece of his game is his rushing ability under Chip Kelly.
Kaep has attempted 17 rushes in his two starts for 152 yards. He should have a decent chance to break 100 yards rushing this week against the Saints. The Saints haven't faced a quarterback that is willing to run this year, either. They did face Cam Newton and Russell Wilson, but both have been dinged up and much less willing to run the ball themselves.
The Saints haven't held an offense to under 300 yards all season and have only held three offenses to under 400 yards. If this turns into a typical Saints shootout game, Kaepernick should be an attractive tournament play.
With Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles likely missing this week, West becomes a must-own. Nothing will stop Andy Reid's Chiefs from attempting a lot of rushing plays and dump offs to running backs on passing plays. The Chiefs have even signed Bishop Sankey to fill in as a backup. Assuming he's not completely up to speed with the offense, West is going to get a ton of touches.
There isn't much available on West. He's seemingly an average running back that can catch the ball out of the backfield. He's just impossible to pass up with his price as a starting running back for the Chiefs.
The Eagles running back usage is about as random as it gets in the NFL. They use three or four guys with different workloads each week. Darren Sproles would strictly be considered to be a tournment play for that reason. One good sign is he has emerged as their best all-around option out of the backfield.
Sproles rushed the ball 15 times for 86 yards against the Cowboys on Sunday night, both being highs of his season. Carson Wentz also seems unwilling to stretch the field with his arm making Sproles a nice PPR option. He has been targed four times per game this year and has a chance to break a long catch and run with his speed every time he touches it.
Emmanuel Sanders has been one of the most under-appreciated wide receivers this year. He's gotten 75 targets in eight games, including ten last week. His lowest number of targets this year has been six and has gotten eight or more in the other seven games. Sanders is priced a second-tier receiver this week partly because he only caught four passes last week. However, he was targeted ten times.
The Broncos will also face the worst passing defense in the NFL this year. The Raiders have the worst defense in yards per play and yards per attempt passing. Look for the Broncos to attempt a bit more passes than usual and Sanders to get a bulk of those throws his way. With the matchup and Sanders' consistency this year, he's near impossible to pass up.
Mike Wallace has been the ultimate boom or bust his entire career. He's a big play receiver and has a favorable matchup this week. The Steelers defense doesn't have much to offer to stop small, big, or medium passing plays. With Steve Smith likely out, Mike Wallace becomes the number one option for Joe Flacco.
Flacco has had an up and down season but has consistently attempted a ton passes each game. Flacco has attempted at least 40 passes in every game since Week 1. In the games since Smith has been out or dinged up, Flacco has thrown towards Mike Wallace nine, eleven, nine, and thirteen times. He'll have a high variance on whether those passes are caught and for how many yards, which makes him a great tournament play.
Unlike Wallace, Dennis Pitta is a bit more reliable for the frequent throwing Joe Flacco. Over the last three games, Pitta has gotten 28 targets. Steve Smith being out, a largely targeted receiver for Flacco, also helps Pitta. He may also be pretty low-owned considering he only caught four of ten targets last week. For the season, though, Pitta has caught two-thirds of his targets from Flacco. That trend should continue this week against a shaky Steelers secondary.
Gary Barnidge hasn't caught a touchdown pass all year. In a microcosm of the Browns' season, he's been disappointing. Nonetheless, Josh McCown seems to love throwing his way. McCown has thrown his five or more times in each of his starts and seven times in each of the last two games. He only caught three balls last week for 42 yards; thus, we'd expect him to be pretty low owned considering there's quite a few top options at tight end with Graham, Olsen, and Rudolph. With the exception of Sean Lee, Barnidge will go up against a set of bad Cowyboys linebackers and should have a good chane to grab his first touchdown of the season this week.