NFL Week 3: In-Depth Analysis

By Rob Pizzola

Thursday, September 21 at 8:25 PM ET:

San Francisco 49ers +3 vs Los Angeles Rams (Covers 56.2%), UNDER 39.5 (Covers 51.2%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Los Angeles 19.7 - San Francisco 19.1
SU Pick and Win%: Los Angeles wins 52.2%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #12
ATS Pick and Win%: San Francisco 49ers +3 covers 56.2%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Wager for $50 player: $40
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (39.5) 51.2%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #14
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: LA SF
Straight-Up Record 1-1 0-2
Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 1-1
Over/Under Record 2-0 0-2
Avg. Points For vs. Against 33.0-18.0 6.0-17.5
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #19 #21
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #17 #24
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #27 #6
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #7 #20
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #13 #27
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 52.2%/47.8% #66.7%/33.3%
Turnover Margin 0 -1

Injured Players: Lance Dunbar, RB, Los Angeles Rams, Dominique Easley, DT, Los Angeles Rams, Temarrick Hemingway, TE, Los Angeles Rams, Mike Thomas, WR, Los Angeles Rams, Ronald Blair, DE, San Francisco 49ers, Reuben Foster, LB, San Francisco 49ers, Joshua Garnett, T, San Francisco 49ers, Eric Reid, S, San Francisco 49ers, Malcolm Smith, LB, San Francisco 49ers, Joe Williams, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 58% Los Angeles, 42% San Francisco; O/U Bets - 43% Over, 57% Under

Boxscore: Los Angeles Rams, 20 @ San Francisco 49ers, 19

Analysis: The 49ers have yet to score a touchdown this season and that's all that anyone seems to really be talking about. There is no doubt that the San Fran offense is subpar, but the 49ers were handed no breaks with the Panthers and Seahawks as their first two matchups of the season. Even with Aaron Donald back in the mix, the Rams do not possess the defense anywhere close to that of Carolina or Seattle.

If there has been a strength for this 49ers squad thus far, it has been their running game, averaging a whopping 6.18 yards per carry. Los Angeles just got torched for over 200 yards rushing by the Skins, which bodes well for the 49ers offense heading into this week.

After an amazing performance against what is essentially a bottom-two team in the league in the Colts, the Rams followed it up with a clunker at home. Jared Goff admittedly looks better than he did a season ago, but that's really not saying much. Even with the 49ers having some key injuries on defense (Reuben Foster, Eric Reid), it's hard to envision the Rams moving the ball consistently in this contest.

The current betting line implies that the Rams would be roughly nine-point favorites at home if this matchup were in Los Angeles, which leaves little doubt that this number is inflated.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Sunday, September 24 at 9:30 AM ET:

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Covers 54.9%), UNDER 40 (Covers 56.4%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Baltimore 20.9 - Jacksonville 15.7
SU Pick and Win%: Baltimore wins 63.7%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #6
ATS Pick and Win%: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 covers 54.9%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #6
ATS Wager for $50 player: $26
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (40) 56.4%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #2
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $42

The Teams: BAL JAC
Straight-Up Record 2-0 1-1
Against-the-Spread Record 2-0 1-1
Over/Under Record 0-2 1-1
Avg. Points For vs. Against 22.0-5.0 22.5-22.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #20 #16
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #19 #18
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #17 #21
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #3 #13
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #4 #28
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 42.2%/57.8% #47.1%/52.9%
Turnover Margin +7 +2

Injured Players: Bam Bradley, LB, Baltimore Ravens, Maurice Canady, CB, Baltimore Ravens, Kenneth Dixon, RB, Baltimore Ravens, Crockett Gillmore, TE, Baltimore Ravens, Alex Lewis, T, Baltimore Ravens, Albert McClellan, LB, Baltimore Ravens, Sheldon Price, CB, Baltimore Ravens, Za'Darius Smith, LB, Baltimore Ravens, Darren Waller, TE, Baltimore Ravens, Danny Woodhead, RB, Baltimore Ravens, Marshal Yanda, T, Baltimore Ravens, Tavon Young, CB, Baltimore Ravens, Michael Bennett, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars, Calvin Pryor, S, Jacksonville Jaguars, Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carson Tinker, C, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dede Westbrook, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 53% Baltimore, 47% Jacksonville; O/U Bets - 19% Over, 81% Under

Boxscore: Baltimore Ravens, 21 @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 16

Analysis: These teams are simply at different levels right now. With Jacksonville coming off of a stinker, there will certainly be motivation to get back on track, but that's easier said than done with Blake Bortles at quarterback. Bortles is simply not an NFL calibre quarterback, and it showed once again last week with some untimely turnovers against the Titans.

Baltimore's defense has only allowed ten points in two weeks and there is no glaring weakness in this defensive core. The Ravens front seven can dominate at the line of scrimmage, and there's a good chance that Bortles makes some costly mistakes under pressure again this week.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Sunday, September 24 at 1:00 PM ET:

Buffalo Bills +3 vs Denver Broncos (Covers 57.4%), UNDER 40 (Covers 56.1%)
ATS Play Type: Normal
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Denver 18.4 - Buffalo 18.6
SU Pick and Win%: Buffalo wins 50.2%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #15
ATS Pick and Win%: Buffalo Bills +3 covers 57.4%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #1
ATS Wager for $50 player: $53
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (40) 56.1%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #3
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $39

The Teams: DEN BUF
Straight-Up Record 2-0 1-1
Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 1-0
Over/Under Record 2-0 0-2
Avg. Points For vs. Against 33.0-19.0 12.0-10.5
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #2 #28
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #15 #26
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #22 #4
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #1 #8
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #23 #26
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 46.8%/53.2% #47.2%/52.8%
Turnover Margin -1 +1

Injured Players: Garrett Bolles, T, Denver Broncos, Devontae Booker, RB, Denver Broncos, Jake Butt, TE, Denver Broncos, Jared Crick, DE, Denver Broncos, Carlos Henderson, WR, Denver Broncos, Paxton Lynch, QB, Denver Broncos, Shane Ray, LB, Denver Broncos, Billy Winn, NT, Denver Broncos, Anquan Boldin, WR, Buffalo Bills, T.J. Yates, QB, Buffalo Bills

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 91% Denver, 9% Buffalo; O/U Bets - 8% Over, 92% Under

Boxscore: Denver Broncos, 18 @ Buffalo Bills, 19

Analysis: Denver is a fairly solid football team, but they are likely not as good as they've looked to date. The Broncos capitalized on a depleted Cowboys defense last week, and were lucky to avoid a fourth quarter collapse in Week 1 against the Chargers. Both of those games were at home, where opposing defenses were sucking wind at high altitude for the majority of the game. We anticipate things will get much more difficult for the Broncos on the road.

While the Bills offense leaves a lot to be desired, their defense has performed admirably to start the season. In a game with a low total, where points will be difficult to come by, this already has us leaning to the underdog. Trevor Siemian carved up the Cowboys last week, but again, let's not take too much away from that game considering Dallas' cornerbacks were dropping like flies. The Broncos will also be without Garrett Bolles on their offensive line, making life a bit more difficult for Siemian this week.

An interesting matchup to watch will be LeSean McCoy against the Broncos front seven. While McCoy really hasn't gotten on track this season, this figures to be a good matchup for the Bills rush offense. Yes, Denver just held Ezekiel Elliott to less than double-digit yardage, but that was an aberration. Denver can be exposed on the ground just as they were plenty of times a year ago.

Buffalo closed as a 6.5-point underdog in Carolina last week and now we're expected to believe that they would be nine-point underdogs if this game was in Denver? There is some severe inflation happing here with a team that has yet to play away from home this season. It may be an ugly one to watch but the Bills are offering more value than any other team this week.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Sunday, September 24 at 1:00 PM ET:

Chicago Bears +7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers (Covers 55.8%), UNDER 44 (Covers 51.9%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Pittsburgh 23.8 - Chicago 19.0
SU Pick and Win%: Pittsburgh wins 62.6%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #7
ATS Pick and Win%: Chicago Bears +7 covers 55.8%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #5
ATS Wager for $50 player: $36
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (44) 51.9%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #13
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: PIT CHI
Straight-Up Record 2-0 0-2
Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 1-1
Over/Under Record 0-2 0-2
Avg. Points For vs. Against 23.5-13.5 12.0-26.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #6 #17
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #9 #21
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #7 #14
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #11 #23
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #9 #5
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 60.2%/39.8% #72.0%/28.0%
Turnover Margin +1 -3

Injured Players: Cameron Sutton, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ka'Deem Carey, RB, Chicago Bears, Jerrell Freeman, LB, Chicago Bears, Nick Kwiatkoski, LB, Chicago Bears, Cameron Meredith, WR, Chicago Bears, Patrick Scales, C, Chicago Bears, Kevin White, WR, Chicago Bears

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 66% Pittsburgh, 34% Chicago; O/U Bets - 11% Over, 89% Under

Boxscore: Pittsburgh Steelers, 24 @ Chicago Bears, 19

Analysis: This will be commonly repeated this season: Pittsburgh is a different team on the road than they are at home. This applies to all NFL teams but it is more exaggerated in the case of the Steelers. They almost lost to the Browns on the road in Week 1 for crying out loud, and this has been a common trend under Mike Tomlin for years now.

There's no denying that the Steelers are the better team here, but it's one thing to be the better team, and it's another to win by more than a touchdown on the road. It's difficult enough to win on the road, let alone by more than a touchdown.

Chicago got obliterated by the Bucs last week, and it certainly gives us some pause in backing the Bears in Week 3, but they are just one week removed from almost beating the former NFC champions. Chicago has an underrated defense that can force Big Ben into some critical mistakes. If Mike Glennon can manage the game like he did in Week 1, the Bears can hang around in this one.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Sunday, September 24 at 1:00 PM ET:

Miami Dolphins -6.5 @ New York Jets (Covers 54.8%), OVER 42 (Covers 50.7%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Miami 25.3 - New York 17.1
SU Pick and Win%: Miami wins 71.0%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Pick and Win%: Miami Dolphins -6.5 covers 54.8%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #7
ATS Wager for $50 player: $25
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (42) 50.7%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #15
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: MIA NYJ
Straight-Up Record 1-0 0-2
Against-the-Spread Record 1-0 0-1
Over/Under Record 0-1 1-1
Avg. Points For vs. Against 19.0-17.0 16.0-33.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #23 #18
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #12 #29
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #8 #25
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #15 #29
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #25 #22
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 52.9%/47.1% #63.3%/36.7%
Turnover Margin 0 -3

Injured Players: Tony Lippett, CB, Miami Dolphins, T.J. McDonald, S, Miami Dolphins, Raekwon McMillan, LB, Miami Dolphins, Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins, Lawrence Timmons, LB, Miami Dolphins, Quincy Enunwa, WR, New York Jets, Jalin Marshall, WR, New York Jets, Lorenzo Mauldin, LB, New York Jets, Lucky Whitehead, WR, New York Jets

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 79% Miami, 21% New York; O/U Bets - 49% Over, 51% Under

Boxscore: Miami Dolphins, 25 @ New York Jets, 17

Analysis: While we have been preaching the parity in the NFL this season, that simply does not apply to the Jets. New York is an abomination and everyone knows it. While they were at least capable of playing run defense a season ago, that is long gone with some key departures in the offseason, and gives them little chance of slowing down Jay Ajayi and the Dolphins offense.

We typically preach the “buy low, sell high” mentality but it's entirely possible that the Jets have not even come close to reaching their low point. This is one of the worst teams in a decade, and while there are some situational factors that work in their advantage, it's Miami or nothing here.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Sunday, September 24 at 1:00 PM ET:

Cleveland Browns -1 @ Indianapolis Colts (Covers 54.1%), OVER 40.5 (Covers 56.9%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Cleveland 23.7 - Indianapolis 20.9
SU Pick and Win%: Cleveland wins 56.5%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #11
ATS Pick and Win%: Cleveland Browns -1 covers 54.1%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #8
ATS Wager for $50 player: $18
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (40.5) 56.9%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #1
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $47

The Teams: CLE IND
Straight-Up Record 0-2 0-2
Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 1-1
Over/Under Record 0-2 1-1
Avg. Points For vs. Against 14.0-22.5 11.0-31.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #1 #26
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #27 #28
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #18 #23
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #21 #30
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #21 #11
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 64.1%/35.9% #55.5%/44.5%
Turnover Margin -3 -2

Injured Players: Tank Carder, LB, Cleveland Browns, Corey Coleman, WR, Cleveland Browns, Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns, Howard Wilson, CB, Cleveland Browns, Vontae Davis, CB, Indianapolis Colts, Denzelle Good, T, Indianapolis Colts, Ryan Kelly, C, Indianapolis Colts, Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts, Erik Swoope, TE, Indianapolis Colts

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 48% Cleveland, 52% Indianapolis; O/U Bets - 37% Over, 63% Under

Boxscore: Cleveland Browns, 24 @ Indianapolis Colts, 21

Analysis: Some might be betting the Colts out of principle here, since they cannot believe that the Browns are favored on the road. Make no mistake though, Cleveland is the better team. Indianapolis upgraded at quarterback with Jacoby Brissett relieving Scott Tolzien of his duties, but Tolzien is so inept that there was nowhere to go but up. Brissett still struggled against the Cards last week and the Browns have actually been decent on defense in the early going.

Keep your eye on the status Colts cornerback Vontae Davis. Davis is a notable absence from a Colts defense that is extremely void of talent. DeShone Kizer hasn't looked out of his element against two much better defenses this year, as evidenced by a pretty strong 7.3 yards per attempt against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. We agree that Cleveland should be favored in this one and we also like their ability to put up points against a pedestrian Colts defense. The OVER is in play.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Sunday, September 24 at 1:00 PM ET:

Houston Texans +13.5 @ New England Patriots (Covers 51.9%), OVER 44 (Covers 52.1%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Houston 16.2 - New England 29.0
SU Pick and Win%: New England wins 81.3%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #1
ATS Pick and Win%: Houston Texans +13.5 covers 51.9%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #11
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (44) 52.1%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #12
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: HOU NE
Straight-Up Record 1-1 1-1
Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 1-1
Over/Under Record 0-2 1-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 10.0-19.0 31.5-31.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #13 #30
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #30 #1
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #12 #16
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #6 #17
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #10 #15
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 55.7%/44.3% #54.8%/45.2%
Turnover Margin -3 +1

Injured Players: Duane Brown, T, Houston Texans, Brian Cushing, LB, Houston Texans, C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Houston Texans, Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans, Kevin Johnson, CB, Houston Texans, Wendall Williams, WR, Houston Texans, Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots, Tony Garcia, T, New England Patriots, Cyrus Jones, CB, New England Patriots, Shea McClellin, LB, New England Patriots, Malcolm Mitchell, WR, New England Patriots, Derek Rivers, DE, New England Patriots

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 7% Houston, 93% New England; O/U Bets - 52% Over, 48% Under

Boxscore: Houston Texans, 16 @ New England Patriots, 29

Analysis: The Patriots have the Texans number. In the last two seasons, the Texans have lost three games by a combined 66 points to New England, including a 34-16 romping in New England in the playoffs last season. Is that relevant to Sunday's matchup? Not really.

What is relevant though is that the Texans could be down some key personnel in their secondary. Kevin Johnson is expected to miss at least four weeks with a knee injury, and the Texans could be without Johnathan Joseph as well. Considering the reports of Tom Brady's demise were LOL worthy, it's hard to envision the Texans competing on the road with a battered secondary. Houston is more than capable of generating pressure on Brady, but expecting to slow down the Pats offense away from home simply isn't realistic without your best players on the field.

Houston's offense also leaves a lot to be desired. Deshaun Watson is unquestionably an upgrade over Tom Savage, but it's clear that he is still quite a bit away from being an effective quarterback at the NFL level. Without Duane Brown on the offensive line (and potentially Jeff Allen again), the Texans simply cannot be expected to move the ball with any consistency.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Sunday, September 24 at 1:00 PM ET:

Detroit Lions +3 vs Atlanta Falcons (Covers 50.4%), OVER 50.5 (Covers 53.6%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Atlanta 27.9 - Detroit 25.0
SU Pick and Win%: Atlanta wins 56.8%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #10
ATS Pick and Win%: Detroit Lions +3 covers 50.4%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #13
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (50.5) 53.6%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #11
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $13

The Teams: ATL DET
Straight-Up Record 2-0 2-0
Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 2-0
Over/Under Record 1-1 1-1
Avg. Points For vs. Against 28.5-20.0 29.5-16.5
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #8 #22
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #2 #8
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #9 #19
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #9 #25
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #29 #24
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 55.8%/44.2% #52.8%/47.2%
Turnover Margin +2 +3

Injured Players: Vic Beasley, LB, Atlanta Falcons, Jalen Collins, CB, Atlanta Falcons, Devin Fuller, WR, Atlanta Falcons, LaRoy Reynolds, LB, Atlanta Falcons, Armonty Bryant, DE, Detroit Lions, Brandon Copeland, LB, Detroit Lions, Taylor Decker, T, Detroit Lions, Jordan Hill, DT, Detroit Lions, Kerry Hyder, DE, Detroit Lions, Kasey Redfern, P, Detroit Lions, Corey Robinson, T, Detroit Lions, Khyri Thornton, DT, Detroit Lions

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 74% Atlanta, 26% Detroit; O/U Bets - 99% Over, 1% Under

Boxscore: Atlanta Falcons, 28 @ Detroit Lions, 25

Analysis: Our model is slowly starting to come around on the Lions, but not enough to put the Lions into playable range this week. It doesn't appear to be the best matchup for Detroit, stylistically. For one, the Lions don't generate much of a pass rush (yes, they teed off on Eli on Monday night but that's because the Giants offensive line is an atrocity), and two, they don't have the secondary capable of slowing down Atlanta's weapons.

Conversely, Atlanta can be susceptible on defense when opponents can run on them and work the play action pass (see Chicago in Week 1), but the Lions don't really boast much of a running game. The Falcons will have a big hole on defense though with the absence of Vic Beasley, and that will surely have an impact. While the side isn't playable, the OVER is worth a small play.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Sunday, September 24 at 1:00 PM ET:

New York Giants +6 @ Philadelphia Eagles (Covers 50.3%), UNDER 42.5 (Covers 54.0%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: New York 17.2 - Philadelphia 23.1
SU Pick and Win%: Philadelphia wins 65.6%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Pick and Win%: New York Giants +6 covers 50.3%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #14
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (42.5) 54.0%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #9
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $17

The Teams: NYG PHI
Straight-Up Record 0-2 1-1
Against-the-Spread Record 0-2 1-1
Over/Under Record 0-2 0-2
Avg. Points For vs. Against 6.5-21.5 25.0-22.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #15 #3
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #22 #11
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #30 #13
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #14 #16
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #2 #18
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 72.2%/27.8% #69.4%/30.6%
Turnover Margin -1 0

Injured Players: Ronald Darby, CB, Philadelphia Eagles, Donnel Pumphrey, RB, Philadelphia Eagles, Caleb Sturgis, K, Philadelphia Eagles

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 17% New York, 83% Philadelphia; O/U Bets - 13% Over, 87% Under

Boxscore: New York Giants, 17 @ Philadelphia Eagles, 23

Analysis: It's a shame that the Giants played back-to-back stinkers on national TV because they could have made for a great fade for weeks to come. Unfortunately, the market has quickly reacted to how poor this team is, and all value has been lost.

Some might view this as an overreaction, but having a short week to prepare for an opponent that has dominated this series in past years is not something that we want to step in front of. The UNDER holds some value here due to the Giants' continued offensive struggles.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Sunday, September 24 at 1:00 PM ET:

Carolina Panthers -5.5 vs New Orleans Saints (Covers 50.3%), UNDER 46.5 (Covers 55.7%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: New Orleans 18.8 - Carolina 24.4
SU Pick and Win%: Carolina wins 65.0%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #5
ATS Pick and Win%: Carolina Panthers -5.5 covers 50.3%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #15
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (46.5) 55.7%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #4
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $35

The Teams: NO CAR
Straight-Up Record 0-2 2-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-2 1-1
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-2
Avg. Points For vs. Against 19.5-32.5 16.0-3.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #10 #5
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #7 #25
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #20 #26
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #27 #4
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #7 #1
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 68.9%/31.1% #48.8%/51.2%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Injured Players: Delvin Breaux, CB, New Orleans Saints, Jon Dorenbos, C, New Orleans Saints, Dannell Ellerbe, LB, New Orleans Saints, Mitchell Loewen, DT, New Orleans Saints, Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans Saints, Zach Strief, T, New Orleans Saints, Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 64% New Orleans, 36% Carolina; O/U Bets - 6% Over, 94% Under

Boxscore: New Orleans Saints, 19 @ Carolina Panthers, 24

Analysis: It seems like there are key injuries across the board in the NFL this week, and this game is no different. Cam Newton loses his favorite target, Greg Olsen, due to a broken foot, which could have a lasting impact for the season. Newton seems like he's struggling to find his form and the Panthers receiving corps was thin to begin with, so this will likely pose an issue going forward. It remains to be seen whether the Saints are actually capable of generating a stop though.

After getting carved up in back-to-back games by Sam Bradford and Tom Brady, this will be New Orleans' best chance in the early season to stop the bleeding. Cam Newton looks like a shell of his former self and is operating behind an offensive line that is having problems holding up. While the Saints secondary has surrendered almost 800 yards through the air this season, there is a possibility of generating some stops this week with their pass rush.

The problem for New Orleans is that they are experiencing similar issues on the offensive line. Zach Strief will be out again this Sunday, and Terron Armstead is listed as questionable. It's hard to win in this day and age without your two starting tackles, especially against a front seven as lethal as Carolina's. Drew Brees is still an elite quarterback but he is only capable of so much. With both teams having major issues in pass protection, it's hard not to look at the UNDER here.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Sunday, September 24 at 4:05 PM ET:

Seattle Seahawks +3 @ Tennessee Titans (Covers 56.7%), UNDER 42 (Covers 54.1%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Seattle 19.7 - Tennessee 20.0
SU Pick and Win%: Tennessee wins 51.2%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #13
ATS Pick and Win%: Seattle Seahawks +3 covers 56.7%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Wager for $50 player: $45
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (42) 54.1%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #8
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $18

The Teams: SEA TEN
Straight-Up Record 1-1 1-1
Against-the-Spread Record 0-2 1-1
Over/Under Record 0-2 1-1
Avg. Points For vs. Against 10.5-13.0 26.5-21.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #25 #27
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #16 #14
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #15 #5
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #2 #18
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #16 #12
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 56.7%/43.3% #55.1%/44.9%
Turnover Margin +1 +2

Injured Players: George Fant, T, Seattle Seahawks, DeShawn Shead, CB, Seattle Seahawks, Johnathan Cyprien, S, Tennessee Titans, Tajae Sharpe, WR, Tennessee Titans

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 27% Seattle, 73% Tennessee; O/U Bets - 11% Over, 89% Under

Boxscore: Seattle Seahawks, 20 @ Tennessee Titans, 20

Analysis: This betting line suggests that these teams are essentially even on a neutral field, and while we do think the Titans will be successful this season, we are not ready to echo that sentiment.

All the focus has been on Seattle's issues on offense, while their defense is largely being ignored. Simply put, Seattle's defense should be one of the most feared units in all of football, with no glaring weaknesses whatsoever. Tennessee struggled to move the ball consistently against Oakland in Week 1, and really struggled to generate offense last week against Jacksonville until Blake Bortles started giving the game away with costly turnovers.

There is no doubt that the Seahawks offense leaves much to be desired at the moment, but backing an underdog with an elite defense is difficult to pass up nowadays. And while the offensive line is a complete mess for Seattle, they still have a great quarterback calling the shots, which isn't the same for many other teams with offensive line issues around the league (see NYG, HOU, CIN).

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Sunday, September 24 at 4:25 PM ET:

Kansas City Chiefs -3 @ Los Angeles Chargers (Covers 54.0%), OVER 47.5 (Covers 55.2%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Kansas City 27.7 - Los Angeles 23.1
SU Pick and Win%: Kansas City wins 61.0%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #8
ATS Pick and Win%: Kansas City Chiefs -3 covers 54.0%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #9
ATS Wager for $50 player: $17
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (47.5) 55.2%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #6
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $30

The Teams: KC LAC
Straight-Up Record 2-0 0-2
Against-the-Spread Record 2-0 1-1
Over/Under Record 1-1 1-1
Avg. Points For vs. Against 34.5-23.5 19.0-21.5
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #12 #11
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #3 #13
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #1 #24
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #10 #24
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #19 #20
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 60.3%/39.7% #67.3%/32.7%
Turnover Margin +1 +1

Injured Players: Eric Berry, S, Kansas City Chiefs, Ashton Lampkin, CB, Kansas City Chiefs, Mitch Morse, C, Kansas City Chiefs, Steven Nelson, CB, Kansas City Chiefs, Spencer Ware, RB, Kansas City Chiefs, Forrest Lamp, T, Los Angeles Chargers, Denzel Perryman, LB, Los Angeles Chargers, Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 83% Kansas City, 17% Los Angeles; O/U Bets - 99% Over, 1% Under

Boxscore: Kansas City Chiefs, 28 @ Los Angeles Chargers, 23

Analysis: Through two weeks of the season, it's apparent that this isn't the same old dink-and-dunk Chiefs offense. Kareem Hunt has burst onto the scene and looks like a true stud at running back, while Alex Smith is actually throwing passes more than ten yards past the line of scrimmage. It is truly something to behold. There's reason to believe that the Chiefs offense will continue to have success, especially if Jason Verrett is unable to suit up for the Chargers again this week.

While it's true that the Chargers could potentially be 2-0 instead of 0-2 if some special teams luck went their way, it's hard to say that they were deserving of winning either game against Denver or Miami. The Chargers continue to shoot themselves in the foot on a weekly basis, which has been the case for several years under several different coaching staffs. The Chiefs defense isn't a truly elite unit—especially with Eric Berry out for the season—as they often give up plenty of yardage and rely on turnovers to swing things in their favor, but it sure looks like Kansas City holds the edge on both offense and defense in this one.

One of the bigger issues for this Chargers team is that they have virtually no home-field advantage whatsoever, and that plays a factor in all of our simulations of this contest. The road team and the OVER are both worth a look.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Sunday, September 24 at 4:25 PM ET:

Cincinnati Bengals +9 @ Green Bay Packers (Covers 52.2%), OVER 44.5 (Covers 55.2%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Cincinnati 19.8 - Green Bay 28.0
SU Pick and Win%: Green Bay wins 70.0%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Pick and Win%: Cincinnati Bengals +9 covers 52.2%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #10
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (44.5) 55.2%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #7
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $30

The Teams: CIN GB
Straight-Up Record 0-2 1-1
Against-the-Spread Record 0-2 1-1
Over/Under Record 0-2 1-1
Avg. Points For vs. Against 4.5-16.5 20.0-21.5
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #14 #9
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #23 #6
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #28 #11
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #5 #26
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #30 #17
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 61.7%/38.3% #69.7%/30.3%
Turnover Margin -5 -2

Injured Players: Vontaze Burfict, LB, Cincinnati Bengals, Trey Hopkins, T, Cincinnati Bengals, Cedric Peerman, RB, Cincinnati Bengals, Don Barclay, T, Green Bay Packers

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 8% Cincinnati, 92% Green Bay; O/U Bets - 36% Over, 64% Under

Boxscore: Cincinnati Bengals, 20 @ Green Bay Packers, 28

Analysis: This is one of the toughest games to project this week due to multiple injuries for both teams. Green Bay is decimated on offense, as they have several injuries on their line and in the receiving corps. We are merely guessing at who's going to play here, but with Green Bay having a short turnaround in Week 4, we'd expect the Packers coaching staff to err on the side of caution. A healthy Packers squad likely decimates the Bengals at home here, but that is far from the case.

Meanwhile, it's impossible to get into the Bengals players' state of mind right now. Multiple reports have surfaced that there is turmoil in the locker room and it appears that this team may have given up on head coach Marvin Lewis. The Bengals failed to score a touchdown in two home games to open the season, and while the Packers pass rush is not as strong as that of Baltimore or Houston, it likely won't make a difference. Green Bay ravaged a similarly bad Seahawks offensive line in Week 1 and they figure to disrupt Andy Dalton in the backfield all afternoon long.

Our only play here is on the OVER but we will monitor the injury situation in Green Bay and update our projection if there are any drastic changes as the week goes on.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Sunday, September 24 at 8:30 PM ET:

Oakland Raiders -3 @ Washington Redskins (Covers 51.0%), OVER 54 (Covers 55.2%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Oakland 30.6 - Washington 27.2
SU Pick and Win%: Oakland wins 57.8%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #9
ATS Pick and Win%: Oakland Raiders -3 covers 51.0%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #12
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (54) 55.2%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #5
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $30

The Teams: OAK WAS
Straight-Up Record 2-0 1-1
Against-the-Spread Record 2-0 1-1
Over/Under Record 1-1 1-1
Avg. Points For vs. Against 35.5-18.0 22.0-25.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #4 #7
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #5 #10
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #3 #10
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #22 #28
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #14 #8
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 52.5%/47.5% #56.6%/43.4%
Turnover Margin +2 0

Injured Players: Sebastian Janikowski, K, Oakland Raiders, Denver Kirkland, T, Oakland Raiders, Obi Melifonwu, S, Oakland Raiders, Su'a Cravens, S, Washington Redskins, Robert Kelley, RB, Washington Redskins, Keith Marshall, RB, Washington Redskins, Trent Murphy, LB, Washington Redskins

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 73% Oakland, 27% Washington; O/U Bets - 67% Over, 33% Under

Boxscore: Oakland Raiders, 31 @ Washington Redskins, 27

Analysis: While Washington cashed in for us as our “Lock of the Week” a week ago, there's a pretty vast difference between going up against the Rams and going up against the Raiders. Oakland is extremely dangerous on offense and they match up well with the Skins defense because Josh Norman can't take both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree out of the game. And while this is the classic “west coast team playing on the east coast” game, it actually works in the Raiders favor to have a late start since their body clocks won't feel like it's morning.

One thing we've talked about exhaustingly with Oakland is that they have a poor defense, which is true, but the gap between the Raiders offense and Redskins defense is much larger than the gap between the Redskins offense and Raiders defense. With that being said, the Redskins do have home-field advantage here and they can do enough offensively to keep this game competitive.

If you're going to look to anything here, look to the OVER. Both teams are very efficient through the air and neither team possesses the pass rush or secondary to pose much of a threat to the opponent's vertical passing game.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI

Monday, September 25 at 8:30 PM ET:

Arizona Cardinals +3 vs Dallas Cowboys (Covers 57.2%), UNDER 47 (Covers 54.0%)
ATS Play Type: Normal
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Dallas 22.0 - Arizona 22.5
SU Pick and Win%: Arizona wins 50.2%
Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #14
ATS Pick and Win%: Arizona Cardinals +3 covers 57.2%
Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Wager for $50 player: $51
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (47) 54.0%
Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #10
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $17

The Teams: DAL ARI
Straight-Up Record 1-1 1-1
Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 0-2
Over/Under Record 1-1 1-1
Avg. Points For vs. Against 18.0-22.5 19.5-24.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #24 #29
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #4 #20
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #2 #29
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #19 #12
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #6 #3
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 67.2%/32.8% #67.4%/32.6%
Turnover Margin +1 -3

Injured Players: Randy Gregory, DE, Dallas Cowboys, Anthony Hitchens, LB, Dallas Cowboys, David Irving, DT, Dallas Cowboys, D.J. Humphries, T, Arizona Cardinals, David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals, T.J. Logan, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 79% Dallas, 21% Arizona; O/U Bets - 23% Over, 77% Under

Boxscore: Dallas Cowboys, 22 @ Arizona Cardinals, 22

Analysis: We played against the Cowboys a week ago and outlined the injury to cornerback Orlando Scandrick as one of the main reasons why. Well, Scandrick is likely to miss this week's contest again, while Dallas may also be without Nolan Carroll in the secondary. Carson Palmer is on his last legs, but Trevor Siemian was able to shred the Dallas defense a week ago and there's potential for Palmer to do the same. With the emergence of J.J. Nelson at wide receiver, the Cards have a bunch of options through the air that Dallas simply cannot compete with.

Denver laid out the blueprint for slowing down the Cowboys offense, and while it's not easy to duplicate, the Cardinals have the horses in place to do the same. Arizona is strong enough in the secondary to devote bodies to stopping the run. It will be on Dak Prescott to move the sticks, and through two weeks, there are very little positives to take away from his play.

It's easy to dismiss Arizona after two lacklustre performances, but don't forget that this is their first home game of the season, and that the Cardinals boast a big home-field advantage in primetime. Once again, the value lies in playing against “America's Team”.

LA @ SF BAL @ JAC DEN @ BUF PIT @ CHI MIA @ NYJ CLE @ IND HOU @ NE ATL @ DET NYG @ PHI NO @ CAR SEA @ TEN KC @ LAC CIN @ GB OAK @ WAS DAL @ ARI