NFL Week 2: In-Depth Analysis

By Rob Pizzola

Thursday, September 14 at 8:25 PM ET:

Houston Texans +6.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals (Covers 56.3%), UNDER 38 (Covers 50.0%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Houston 16.8 - Cincinnati 21.2
SU Pick and Win%: Cincinnati wins 62.5%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #8
ATS Pick and Win%: Houston Texans +6.5 covers 56.3%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Wager for $50 player: $41
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (38) 50.0%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #16
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: HOU CIN
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #14 #15
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #31 #13
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #22 #20
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #5 #10
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #20 #32
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 29% Houston, 71% Cincinnati; O/U Bets - 60% Over, 40% Under

Boxscore: Houston Texans, 17 @ Cincinnati Bengals, 21

Analysis: Both of these teams enter this week off of embarrassing losses, and while Cincinnati is the better of the two teams (marginally), this line has gotten a bit out of hand.

Part of the reason for the early steam on the Bengals is the number of key injuries for the Texans. Duane Brown is still a holdout at left tackle, and that presents a major issue with Jeff Allen also missing on the offensive line. The Bengals can certainly exploit this matchup, but the same can be said on the opposite side of things.

As we predicted in last week's preview, the Ravens had their way with the Cincinnati offensive line, and that will continue all season long against teams with a good front seven. Enter the Houston Texans, who just so happen to have J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, and Whitney Mercilus on their defensive line. Andy Dalton figures to struggle again with an overmatched offensive line.

There's certainly some concern in backing a rookie quarterback on the road, especially with the amount of Texans players on the injury report, but at this point, we can only view Deshaun Watson as an upgrade to the woeful Tom Savage. Additionally, with a game total at 38 points, points will be hard to come, and we'd rather back the (almost) touchdown underdog than the (almost) touchdown favorite in a projected low scoring game.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 1:00 PM ET:

Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs (Covers 55.0%), UNDER 47.5 (Covers 54.5%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Philadelphia 20.5 - Kansas City 24.0
SU Pick and Win%: Kansas City wins 59.2%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #12
ATS Pick and Win%: Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 covers 55.0%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #5
ATS Wager for $50 player: $28
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (47.5) 54.5%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #4
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $22

The Teams: PHI KC
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #3 #13
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #20 #10
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #13 #8
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #19 #7
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #16 #19
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 31% Philadelphia, 69% Kansas City; O/U Bets - 69% Over, 31% Under

Boxscore: Philadelphia Eagles, 21 @ Kansas City Chiefs, 24

Analysis: The Chiefs looked extremely impressive in Week 1—enough to even vault them into the top five of our NFL Power Rankings (although the gap between #3 and #8 is tiny)—but that doesn't mean that you can expect that Week 1 performance in every week to come.

The Eagles are a solid team, and more importantly, a team that presents some more matchup problems for the Chiefs than the Patriots did a week ago. Kansas City dominated in the trenches last week, as the Pats could barely muster any pressure on Alex Smith whatsoever. That won't be the case against Philadelphia, who boast one of the best defensive front sevens in football.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have some concerns in their secondary. Having already lost Eric Berry for the season with an Achilles injury, Marcus Peters is listed as questionable with a calf injury. Berry figured to see a lot of coverage on Zach Ertz, who is a heavily targeted player in this Eagles offense, and Peters figures to line up across Alshon Jeffrey a lot. We are currently assuming that Peters will play, but the edge on the Eagles could increase if the Chiefs are without another huge playmaker in their secondary. Due to the nature of the Chiefs offense (last week being an exception to the rule), our model rarely projects them to win in blowout fashion, and we expect another close game here.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 1:00 PM ET:

New Orleans Saints +7 vs New England Patriots (Covers 54.8%), OVER 56 (Covers 53.6%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: New England 31.9 - New Orleans 26.9
SU Pick and Win%: New England wins 60.9%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #10
ATS Pick and Win%: New Orleans Saints +7 covers 54.8%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #6
ATS Wager for $50 player: $25
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (56) 53.6%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #6
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $13

The Teams: NE NO
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #32 #11
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #1 #6
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #21 #15
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #13 #32
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #10 #12
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 74% New England, 26% New Orleans; O/U Bets - 86% Over, 14% Under

Boxscore: New England Patriots, 32 @ New Orleans Saints, 27

Analysis: By now, you're probably aware of how good the Patriots are coming off of a loss. It's pretty incredible. New England will even have the luxury of having an extra few days to prepare, while the Saints are coming off of a Monday Night Football game.

With that being said, this number is a tad inflated. New England is certainly going to get their fair share of points here. While everyone has been busy asking themselves if Tom Brady is finished (LOL), they seem to have forgotten that the Pats put up 27 points against a stout Chiefs defense. The Saints defense is a far cry from the Chiefs defense and that may be the understatement of the millennium.

The issue with New England is that they gave up 537 total yards to a usually pedestrian Chiefs offense. Yes, Alex Smith looked great. Yes, Kareem Hunt looked great. But 537 yards to the Chiefs offense just doesn't happen. The Patriots lacked a pass rush all night, and things will be dire for them again this week with Don't'a Hightower expected to miss the contest with a knee injury. So while the Pats offense will likely put up a ton of points, there's little reason to believe they can slow down the Saints offense in New Orleans. The home team and the over are offering some value here.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 1:00 PM ET:

Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 vs Minnesota Vikings (Covers 54.2%), UNDER 45.5 (Covers 51.5%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Minnesota 18.8 - Pittsburgh 25.8
SU Pick and Win%: Pittsburgh wins 68.3%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #5
ATS Pick and Win%: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 covers 54.2%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #9
ATS Wager for $50 player: $19
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (45.5) 51.5%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #10
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: MIN PIT
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #26 #6
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #15 #5
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #31 #3
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #3 #15
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #18 #9
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 85% Minnesota, 15% Pittsburgh; O/U Bets - 17% Over, 83% Under

Boxscore: Minnesota Vikings, 19 @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 26

Analysis: The theme of Week 2 will be not overreacting to Week 1, and this game is a perfect illustration of that.

Minnesota is coming off of a Monday night destruction of the Saints. Sam Bradford played arguably the best game of his professional career, but how much of that had to do with New Orleans posing no threat as a defense? It at least had something to do with it; that's for sure. Pittsburgh's defense is much better than it gets credit for, having held eight of their last 11 opponents to less than 21 points.

While Bradford undoubtedly looked great, we are hard-pressed to believe that all of his past problems have immediately been solved.
Another thing to keep in mind with the Steelers is that home-field advantage is critical with this team. Pittsburgh scored an average of almost 29 points at home last season, and while Ben Roethlisberger has been successful on the road in his career, he boasts a whopping 8.2 yards per attempt at home. Last week's performances allow us to capitalize on a short number here.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 1:00 PM ET:

Baltimore Ravens -9 vs Cleveland Browns (Covers 53.3%), OVER 38.5 (Covers 51.5%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Cleveland 14.6 - Baltimore 24.6
SU Pick and Win%: Baltimore wins 76.8%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Pick and Win%: Baltimore Ravens -9 covers 53.3%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #10
ATS Wager for $50 player: $10
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (38.5) 51.5%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #11
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: CLE BAL
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #1 #21
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #28 #24
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #7 #26
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #27 #4
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #31 #3
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 61% Cleveland, 39% Baltimore; O/U Bets - 68% Over, 32% Under

Boxscore: Cleveland Browns, 15 @ Baltimore Ravens, 25

Analysis: Cleveland was mired in a tight affair with the Steelers last week, and arguably could have won that game. We may have to pump the brakes on the Browns though. Cleveland will certainly be better this season than they were a year ago, but they still have major weaknesses on both sides of the ball.

You typically don't want to lay a large number with an offense as stagnant as Baltimore's, but there's reason for optimism against the Browns defense. Cleveland's road games saw them allow 29, 30, 21, 28, 31, 28, 33, and 27 points a season ago! And while the Browns defense practically shut down the Steelers offense last week, Pittsburgh is known for frequently laying eggs away from home.

Baltimore's defense will also benefit from some game film on DeShone Kizer. Kizer was more than competent last week, but we often see this from rookie quarterbacks. Having some tape to watch will give an experienced defense like Baltimore's all it needs to slow down Cleveland's offense. This number is a bit short.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 1:00 PM ET:

Arizona Cardinals -7 @ Indianapolis Colts (Covers 51.3%), UNDER 44 (Covers 50.4%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Arizona 25.6 - Indianapolis 18.2
SU Pick and Win%: Arizona wins 68.4%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Pick and Win%: Arizona Cardinals -7 covers 51.3%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #12
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (44) 50.4%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #15
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: ARI IND
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #31 #28
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #25 #30
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #25 #18
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #9 #30
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #4 #27
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 74% Arizona, 26% Indianapolis; O/U Bets - 5% Over, 95% Under

Boxscore: Arizona Cardinals, 26 @ Indianapolis Colts, 18

Analysis: The thought of writing a full breakdown of this game is vomit inducing, so I couldn't be happier that our simulation engine turned up a no play/no play for this one. Carson Palmer might be washed up but the Colts just made Jared Goff look like the second coming of Joe Montana.

For those wondering, half of these games were simulated with Scott Tolzien under center while the other half were with Jacoby Brissett. It is still unclear who will be starting at quarterback for Indianapolis, and while Brissett is undoubtedly the better option, the Colts will have to run a vanilla version of the offense for the newly acquired QB. Pass all around.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 1:00 PM ET:

Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 vs Tennessee Titans (Covers 50.9%), OVER 43 (Covers 57.8%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Normal

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Tennessee 25.0 - Jacksonville 22.9
SU Pick and Win%: Tennessee wins 55.0%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #14
ATS Pick and Win%: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 covers 50.9%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #13
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (43) 57.8%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #1
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $57

The Teams: TEN JAC
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #29 #17
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #16 #27
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #9 #19
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #18 #16
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #11 #8
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 83% Tennessee, 17% Jacksonville; O/U Bets - 35% Over, 65% Under

Boxscore: Tennessee Titans, 25 @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 23

Analysis: Early in the season, it's important not to read too much into last week's games. Jacksonville looked outstanding, while Tennessee looked awful. If only wagering on football was that easy.

While the value on a Titans bounce-back has been sucked dry from the early week line movement, there remains some value on the over. The Jaguars defense registered a whopping 10 sacks against the Texans makeshift offensive line, but they aren't going to replicate that success against arguably the best offensive line in football. Sure, Tennessee scored just 16 points against a subpar Raiders defense last week, but we'd prefer to use a larger sample size than just a single game. The Titans' last 14 contests have seen them average over 25 points per game.

The Jags suffered a big blow last week with the loss of Allen Robinson for the year, but with a legitimate running game this season, a lot of pressure will be taken off of Blake Bortles. The Titans defense doesn't have any glaring holes, but it also doesn't have any major strength. This total is a bit too low at the moment.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 1:00 PM ET:

Chicago Bears +7 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Covers 50.8%), OVER 43 (Covers 51.4%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Chicago 18.5 - Tampa Bay 25.2
SU Pick and Win%: Tampa Bay wins 67.7%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #7
ATS Pick and Win%: Chicago Bears +7 covers 50.8%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #14
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (43) 51.4%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #12
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: CHI TB
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #18 #7
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #23 #17
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #12 #29
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #24 #17
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #23 #21
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 45% Chicago, 55% Tampa Bay; O/U Bets - 67% Over, 33% Under

Boxscore: Chicago Bears, 19 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 25

Analysis: In Tampa's first game of the season, our model sees this as a no play/no play. Chicago hung around with Atlanta at home last week, and one could argue that they should have won that game if it weren't for a Jordan Howard drop at the goal line. With that said, the Bears are without Jerrell Freeman at linebacker, and could be without Prince Amukamara and Kyle Long once again this week. Pass.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 1:00 PM ET:

Carolina Panthers -7 vs Buffalo Bills (Covers 50.0%), OVER 43 (Covers 50.4%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Buffalo 18.1 - Carolina 25.1
SU Pick and Win%: Carolina wins 68.1%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #6
ATS Pick and Win%: Carolina Panthers -7 covers 50.0%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #16
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (43) 50.4%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #14
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: BUF CAR
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #30 #5
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #26 #21
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #2 #17
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #22 #12
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #29 #5
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 64% Buffalo, 36% Carolina; O/U Bets - 87% Over, 13% Under

Boxscore: Buffalo Bills, 18 @ Carolina Panthers, 25

Analysis: Sean McDermott's return to Carolina doesn't offer any value on the side or total. It's hard to take anything away from either team's game from a week ago, since both the Bills and Panthers battled two of the league's worst three teams at the moment. Another pass, unfortunately.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 4:05 PM ET:

Oakland Raiders -14 vs New York Jets (Covers 55.3%), OVER 43.5 (Covers 53.9%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: New York 15.1 - Oakland 30.8
SU Pick and Win%: Oakland wins 86.8%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #1
ATS Pick and Win%: Oakland Raiders -14 covers 55.3%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Wager for $50 player: $31
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (43.5) 53.9%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #5
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $16

The Teams: NYJ OAK
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #19 #4
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #32 #7
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #28 #4
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #29 #23
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #14 #15
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 42% New York, 58% Oakland; O/U Bets - 72% Over, 28% Under

Boxscore: New York Jets, 15 @ Oakland Raiders, 31

Analysis: Simply put, the Jets got outgained by nearly 200 yards in Buffalo last week. That's not good. And if the Bills offense, with a lack of weapons aside from LeSean McCoy, can expose the Jets defense, it's likely that the Raiders offense will have a field day.

New York used to be able to at least stop the run but they can't even do that anymore with Sheldon Richardson and Damon Harrison gone. Oakland should be able to move the ball at ease here, which is why our model likes the Raiders and the over.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 4:05 PM ET:

Miami Dolphins +4.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers (Covers 51.5%), UNDER 45.5 (Covers 52.7%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Miami 20.0 - Los Angeles 23.9
SU Pick and Win%: Los Angeles wins 60.1%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #11
ATS Pick and Win%: Miami Dolphins +4.5 covers 51.5%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #11
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (45.5) 52.7%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #7
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $3

The Teams: MIA LAC
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #24 #12
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #14 #11
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #10 #27
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #6 #20
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #28 #17
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 46% Miami, 54% Los Angeles; O/U Bets - 97% Over, 3% Under

Boxscore: Miami Dolphins, 20 @ Los Angeles Chargers, 24

Analysis: Another pass with one of the Hurricane Irma teams. The Chargers were one of our stronger ATS plays last week and we will readily admit that we got lucky with a fourth quarter back door cover against the Broncos.

Los Angeles would have been a play here this week if they had any semblance of a home-field advantage, but we don't think that there will be much of one early on this season.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 4:25 PM ET:

Washington Redskins +3 @ Los Angeles Rams (Covers 57.2%), UNDER 46 (Covers 54.9%)
ATS Play Type: Normal
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Washington 21.7 - Los Angeles 21.3
SU Pick and Win%: Los Angeles wins 50.1%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #15
ATS Pick and Win%: Washington Redskins +3 covers 57.2%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #1
ATS Wager for $50 player: $51
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (46) 54.9%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #3
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $26

The Teams: WAS LA
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #8 #20
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #9 #29
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #14 #24
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #26 #11
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #25 #7
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 55% Washington, 45% Los Angeles; O/U Bets - 53% Over, 47% Under

Boxscore: Washington Redskins, 22 @ Los Angeles Rams, 21

Analysis: What have we been saying about overreactions?

The Rams put together arguably the best Week 1 performance of any team, hammering the Colts 46-9 at home. We're not ready to take anything away from that contest though. Indianapolis is a bottom three team in the league without Andrew Luck under center and Vontae Davis in the secondary.

Washington isn't exactly one of the better teams around but they sure have a lot more talent than the Colts. Jared Goff threw for an insane 10.6 yards per attempt last week, but let's not forget that he is one year removed from a dismal 5.3 yards per attempt. It is entirely possible that Goff could have a breakout year, but until we see some continued success against a non-dumpster fire, we will be skeptical.

Meanwhile, the Redskins hung around with an improved Eagles team. Kirk Cousins threw a costly red zone interception and a fumble six was inexplicably not overturned in the fourth quarter, as the Skins fell apart towards the end of the contest. This is still a strong offense that was able to move the ball against an improved defense.

This line implies that the Rams and Redskins are currently equals, and that simply isn't the case. Los Angeles entered the year as a consensus bottom five team in the league, and all of a sudden, people have forgotten about that after a beatdown of an inferior opponent. We have to back the dog here.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 4:25 PM ET:

San Francisco 49ers +14 @ Seattle Seahawks (Covers 56.8%), OVER 42 (Covers 52.1%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: San Francisco 15.8 - Seattle 27.5
SU Pick and Win%: Seattle wins 79.9%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Pick and Win%: San Francisco 49ers +14 covers 56.8%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Wager for $50 player: $46
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (42) 52.1%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #8
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: SF SEA
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #22 #27
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #18 #12
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #11 #16
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #25 #2
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #30 #2
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 22% San Francisco, 78% Seattle; O/U Bets - 15% Over, 85% Under

Boxscore: San Francisco 49ers, 16 @ Seattle Seahawks, 27

Analysis: All the talk about the 49ers being a much improved team went right out the window after a shellacking at the hands of the Panthers last week.

We're not going to sit here and argue that the 9ers are anything but a bottom-feeder, but this is a lot of points to lay with a Seahawks offense that looks abysmal a week ago. The Packers, who don't have an elite pass rush by any means, were constantly wreaking havoc on Russell Wilson, so there's no reason to believe that the 49ers can't do the same. Seattle has an atrocious offensive line, and until they find a way to correct that, it's not easy to envision them moving the ball with any regularity.

Yet, despite the struggles of the Seahawks last week, they find themselves as two touchdown favorites when they were only -11.5 in the look-ahead lines. The narrative is that the Seahawks will be motivated following a loss, but are we to believe that the 49ers won't be as well? Big, ugly dog.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 4:25 PM ET:

Denver Broncos +2 vs Dallas Cowboys (Covers 54.6%), OVER 42 (Covers 51.7%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Dallas 21.4 - Denver 21.5
SU Pick and Win%: Dallas wins 50.1%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #16
ATS Pick and Win%: Denver Broncos +2 covers 54.6%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #8
ATS Wager for $50 player: $23
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (42) 51.7%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #9
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: DAL DEN
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #25 #2
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #4 #19
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #1 #30
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #21 #1
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #6 #26
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 81% Dallas, 19% Denver; O/U Bets - 66% Over, 34% Under

Boxscore: Dallas Cowboys, 21 @ Denver Broncos, 22

Analysis: Dallas' defense looked like the real deal on Sunday Night Football, but that was likely just a farce. Without Odell Beckham Jr. in the lineup to stretch the field, the Cowboys played closer to the line of scrimmage and kept large gains to a minimum. One of the biggest under-the-radar losses this week was Cowboys cornerback Orlando Scandrick breaking his hand. Dallas already was thin at cornerback having lost Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr in the offseason, so you can bet that the Broncos dynamic duo at receiver is going to have a field day.

Trevor Siemian looked very good on Monday Night Football, as he was consistently able to move the chains against a Chargers defense that features four former Pro Bowl corners. He also moved the chains with his feet regularly, showing the evolution he is making at quarterback. We are preaching not to overreact to one game, but it's far more encouraging to see a quarterback like Siemian move the ball against a good defense than it is against the likes of the Colts or Saints.

Dallas is a solid football team, but making them a favorite just doesn't sit well with us. The home team, with a large home-field advantage, is the play here.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Sunday, September 17 at 8:30 PM ET:

Green Bay Packers +3 @ Atlanta Falcons (Covers 50.4%), OVER 53.5 (Covers 55.9%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Green Bay 27.5 - Atlanta 30.3
SU Pick and Win%: Atlanta wins 56.1%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #13
ATS Pick and Win%: Green Bay Packers +3 covers 50.4%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #15
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (53.5) 55.9%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #2
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $37

The Teams: GB ATL
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #10 #9
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #3 #2
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #5 #6
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #28 #14
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #13 #22
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 49% Green Bay, 51% Atlanta; O/U Bets - 63% Over, 37% Under

Boxscore: Green Bay Packers, 27 @ Atlanta Falcons, 30

Analysis: From the outside looking in, this spread seems to make sense. These teams are pretty close to equal so it's no surprise to see the Falcons as three-point favorites at home, and our model agrees.

Where we do see value is on the over. And while this will surely be the “square” side, we have seen plenty of these high totals fly over in recent years. These teams met twice a season ago with each game resulting in a total of 65 points. Both teams' strength is through the air, and both of these teams can be susceptible to the pass. Except a lot of points on Sunday Night Football.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG

Monday, September 18 at 8:30 PM ET:

New York Giants -3 vs Detroit Lions (Covers 54.7%), OVER 43.5 (Covers 51.3%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Detroit 19.7 - New York 24.5
SU Pick and Win%: New York wins 61.7%
Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #9
ATS Pick and Win%: New York Giants -3 covers 54.7%
Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #7
ATS Wager for $50 player: $24
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (43.5) 51.3%
Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #13
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: DET NYG
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #23 #16
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #8 #22
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #23 #32
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #31 #8
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #24 #1
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 87% Detroit, 13% New York; O/U Bets - 73% Over, 27% Under

Boxscore: Detroit Lions, 20 @ New York Giants, 25

Analysis: We are assuming that Odell Beckham Jr. will be on the field after missing last week's game against the Cowboys.

Two teams in the NFL have trailed entering the fourth quarter 16 times over the past two seasons. One is the Browns… they are 0-16 in those 16 games. The other is the Lions… they are 9-7 in those games. One would figure that eventually this string of miraculous comebacks will end, and here we have a case of buy low and sell high.

The Giants season win total entering the season was 8.5 juiced to the over, while the Lions was 7.5 juiced to the under. Yet here we are in Week 2 with the point spread implying that these teams are close to equal on a neutral field.

New York's offense line will be a season-long issue but it's not like the Lions are a team that can expose that issue. Detroit has one of the worst pass rushes in the entire league, and their limited secondary has virtually no shot of containing both OBJ and Brandon Marshall on the outside.

If there's one thing we know about the Giants, it's that they can play defense. Limiting the Cowboys offense to 19 points on the road is no easy feat, and while Detroit's offense is strong, we'd say they're a step behind Dallas'. Don't overreact to Week 1. Line value is with the home team.

HOU @ CIN PHI @ KC NE @ NO MIN @ PIT CLE @ BAL ARI @ IND TEN @ JAC CHI @ TB BUF @ CAR NYJ @ OAK MIA @ LAC WAS @ LA SF @ SEA DAL @ DEN GB @ ATL DET @ NYG