NFL Week 14: In-Depth Analysis

By Paul Bessire
As of the time of publishing, the Tampa Bay vs. Detroit and Buffalo vs. Indianapolis games are off the board due to concerns related to quarterback injuries. We will update the Game Picks page when those liens become available and more information is known.

Thursday, December 7 at 8:25 PM ET:

Atlanta Falcons +1.5 vs New Orleans Saints (Covers 56.6%), OVER 53.5 (Covers 50.6%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: New Orleans 26.1 - Atlanta 27.9
SU Pick and Win%: Atlanta wins 53.6%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #10
ATS Pick and Win%: Atlanta Falcons +1.5 covers 56.6%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #1
ATS Wager for $50 player: $44
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (53.5) 50.6%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #13
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: NO ATL
Straight-Up Record 9-3 7-5
Against-the-Spread Record 7-5 6-6
Over/Under Record 5-5 4-8
Avg. Points For vs. Against 29.4-20.3 22.8-20.3
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #6 #11
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #3 #4
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #1 #7
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #12 #10
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #27 #20
Turnover Margin +3 -3

The Breakdown: In one of the biggest games of the entire week, two of the top eight teams in our NFL Power Rankings face each other in Atlanta to start a full slate of action. The wrong team is favored. Aside from home field advantage, these teams are not that different (they even both should get start cornerbacks - Marshon Lattirmore and Marcus Trufant - back for this contest after injuries).

Atlanta leads all teams in the NFL by out-gaining opponents by a 1.1 yards-per-play. New Orleans is second on that list. Both teams rank in the top ten overall in run offense and pass offense efficiency (strength-of-schedule adjusted - Patriots only other team that can say that). Both have experienced quarterbacks, good offensive lines anchored by elite centers and a stable of weapons. And, both are pretty good against the pass and terrible against the run.

Look for a healthy Devonta Freeman and fellow RB Tevin Coleman to have big games en route to a home win on Thursday night.

Boxscore: New Orleans Saints, 26 @ Atlanta Falcons, 28

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA

Sunday, December 10 at 1:00 PM ET:

Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs Green Bay Packers (Covers 55.9%), UNDER 40.5 (Covers 53.7%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Green Bay 19.9 - Cleveland 18.6
SU Pick and Win%: Green Bay wins 54.4%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #9
ATS Pick and Win%: Cleveland Browns +3.5 covers 55.9%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Wager for $50 player: $37
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (40.5) 53.7%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #10
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $14

The Teams: GB CLE
Straight-Up Record 6-6 0-12
Against-the-Spread Record 6-6 3-9
Over/Under Record 8-4 5-7
Avg. Points For vs. Against 21.5-23.4 14.7-25.7
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #4 #12
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #26 #28
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #3 #16
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #21 #24
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #5 #4
Turnover Margin +4 -19

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 71% Green Bay, 29% Cleveland; O/U Bets - 41% Over, 59% Under

The Breakdown: The look-ahead line for this game between Brett Hundley's Packers and the Browns in Cleveland was Green Bay -6 on the road. The spread is now -3.5 as a consensus and -3 in many books. That is despite more than two thirds of wagers on Green Bay. That is because sharps know that the Packers are not all that good and that Cleveland is not as bad as its record.

In fact, the Browns have been out gained by 0.4 yards-per-play. On the year, the Packers have been out gained by 0.5 yards per play. Including only games without Aaron Rodgers at QB, the Packers would rank third worst in the NFL being out gained by a full yard per play.

This is actually a bad matchup for the Packers as well. They are built to run the ball now with Hundley along with Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones. Cleveland is one of the best defenses against the run. While it's hard to trust the Browns to win or at least come very close to doing so, it's even tougher to trust Brett Hundley to lead a team to a win by more than a field goal on the road without a successful running game.

Boxscore: Green Bay Packers, 20 @ Cleveland Browns, 19

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA

Sunday, December 10 at 1:00 PM ET:

San Francisco 49ers +3 @ Houston Texans (Covers 55.5%), OVER 43 (Covers 55.9%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: San Francisco 22.9 - Houston 23.6
SU Pick and Win%: Houston wins 52.1%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #13
ATS Pick and Win%: San Francisco 49ers +3 covers 55.5%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Wager for $50 player: $33
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (43) 55.9%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #5
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $37

The Teams: SF HOU
Straight-Up Record 2-10 4-8
Against-the-Spread Record 6-6 6-5
Over/Under Record 5-7 7-5
Avg. Points For vs. Against 16.8-24.8 24.7-25.8
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #14 #13
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #17 #25
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #12 #21
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #26 #28
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #13 #6
Turnover Margin -5 -8

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 23% San Francisco, 77% Houston; O/U Bets - 81% Over, 19% Under

The Breakdown: Admittedly, there is not currently much value in the 1 pm ET schedule this week, but where there is any, it's almost exclusively with live underdogs with a good chance to win.

Jimmy Garoppolo has attempted 133 career passes, completing 68% of them for 7.5 yards-per-pass, six touchdowns and one interception. His teams have won every game (3) he has ever started. Clearly, that's a small sample size and the Patriots system, personnel and coaching all inflate those numbers, but it is tough to envision ever being able to say that about Tom Savage on any team. He has attempted 303 passes, completing 58% for 6.4 yards-per-pass, five touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Additionally, the 49ers have been improving in all respects as of late, while the Texans, due mostly to injuries (though they get Brian Cushing back from suspension this week), have regressed. San Francisco projects as better than Houston in matchup metrics except for a slightly better run defense and even then, run defense is a strength for both. The 49ers may win another game this week.

Boxscore: San Francisco 49ers, 23 @ Houston Texans, 24

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA

Sunday, December 10 at 1:00 PM ET:

Oakland Raiders +4 @ Kansas City Chiefs (Covers 54.0%), OVER 47 (Covers 55.5%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Oakland 24.2 - Kansas City 26.5
SU Pick and Win%: Kansas City wins 55.6%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #8
ATS Pick and Win%: Oakland Raiders +4 covers 54.0%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #7
ATS Wager for $50 player: $17
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (47) 55.5%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #8
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $33

The Teams: OAK KC
Straight-Up Record 6-6 6-6
Against-the-Spread Record 4-7 6-6
Over/Under Record 5-7 5-7
Avg. Points For vs. Against 20.8-23.2 25.3-22.8
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #23 #8
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #12 #8
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #15 #2
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #23 #22
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #12 #25
Turnover Margin -8 +6

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 49% Oakland, 51% Kansas City; O/U Bets - 92% Over, 8% Under

The Breakdown: How does Kansas City keep getting favored by more than a field goal? I get that the Chiefs should win, but it is nearly impossible to trust this team that has lost six of the last seven games to win convincingly, especially against a co-division leader with no concerns on motivation. The Chiefs have struggled for consistency in general and in each individual aspect of the game since early October. They will now be without their best remaining (after Eric Berry's injury) defensive player (Marcus Peters) due to suspension and facing a team that is equipped to exploit most of their weaknesses.

This looks more like an even matchup than an obvious win. In the NFL today, that means about a two point win, not twice that.

Boxscore: Oakland Raiders, 24 @ Kansas City Chiefs, 26

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA

Sunday, December 10 at 1:00 PM ET:

Minnesota Vikings -2.5 @ Carolina Panthers (Covers 52.7%), UNDER 41 (Covers 55.9%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Minnesota 20.6 - Carolina 17.1
SU Pick and Win%: Minnesota wins 59.0%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #6
ATS Pick and Win%: Minnesota Vikings -2.5 covers 52.7%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #12
ATS Wager for $50 player: $3
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (41) 55.9%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #6
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $37

The Teams: MIN CAR
Straight-Up Record 10-2 8-4
Against-the-Spread Record 9-2 7-5
Over/Under Record 5-6 7-5
Avg. Points For vs. Against 23.8-17.0 22.4-19.8
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #10 #5
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #6 #18
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #20 #10
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #6 #11
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #1 #9
Turnover Margin +4 -6

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 59% Minnesota, 41% Carolina; O/U Bets - 57% Over, 43% Under

The Breakdown: Minnesota is for real. Am I the first to have said that this week? The Vikings are #3 in our NFL Power Rankings, only behind Super Bowl favorites, the Eagles and Patriots. More notably, they have the best run defense in the NFL and supplement that with a top ten pass defense that is dominated on the edge by Xavier Rhodes eliminating opposing top wide receivers. The Eagles are the only other team that ranks top ten in run and pass defense.

Well, the Panthers run the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the league and have one of the most target-dominant receivers (Devin Funchess) in the game.

Carolina is good and worthy of its record, yet is not better than Minnesota in any specific respect.

Minnesota has not lost on the road since September 17th with all of its wins coming by at least three points. Carolina has already lost to the Saints and Eagles at home, two teams that rank similarly to the Vikings in our overall Power Rankings. The Panthers are currently a level below what the Vikings are and home field advantage does not overcome that.

Boxscore: Minnesota Vikings, 21 @ Carolina Panthers, 17

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA

Sunday, December 10 at 1:00 PM ET:

New York Giants +4.5 vs Dallas Cowboys (Covers 50.6%), OVER 41.5 (Covers 55.2%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Dallas 24.4 - New York 20.1
SU Pick and Win%: Dallas wins 60.7%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #5
ATS Pick and Win%: New York Giants +4.5 covers 50.6%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #13
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (41.5) 55.2%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #9
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $30

The Teams: DAL NYG
Straight-Up Record 6-6 2-10
Against-the-Spread Record 6-6 5-7
Over/Under Record 6-6 5-7
Avg. Points For vs. Against 23.8-23.7 15.8-24.3
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #21 #7
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #15 #20
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #4 #11
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #18 #27
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #17 #24
Turnover Margin 0 -1

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 62% Dallas, 38% New York; O/U Bets - 94% Over, 6% Under

The Breakdown: There is no playable pick on this game. The Giants are bad, but the Cowboys are not quite good enough to expect an easy win. There is a little value in the over with Eli Manning back in the fold. Both defenses are below average against the run and the pass.

Boxscore: Dallas Cowboys, 24 @ New York Giants, 20

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA

Sunday, December 10 at 1:00 PM ET:

Chicago Bears +6 @ Cincinnati Bengals (Covers 50.6%), UNDER 39.5 (Covers 55.8%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Chicago 15.3 - Cincinnati 21.1
SU Pick and Win%: Cincinnati wins 65.8%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Pick and Win%: Chicago Bears +6 covers 50.6%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #14
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (39.5) 55.8%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #7
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $36

The Teams: CHI CIN
Straight-Up Record 3-9 5-7
Against-the-Spread Record 5-5 7-5
Over/Under Record 4-8 5-7
Avg. Points For vs. Against 15.9-22.3 18.3-19.8
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #2 #25
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #23 #13
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #14 #27
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #20 #5
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #7 #19
Turnover Margin -2 -6

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 20% Chicago, 80% Cincinnati; O/U Bets - 82% Over, 18% Under

The Breakdown: The Bears rank second-to-last in the NFL in plays-per-game. They have built a conservative strategy led by John Fox to minimize the potential harm that rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky can do by slowing the tempo down about as far as possible. "As far as possible" actually applies to the Bengals, who have run the fewest plays per game in the NFL this year. Both teams also average less than five yards per play on the season. Cincinnati should win, but do not expect many points. Zzzzz....

Boxscore: Chicago Bears, 15 @ Cincinnati Bengals, 21

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA

Sunday, December 10 at 4:05 PM ET:

Arizona Cardinals +3 vs Tennessee Titans (Covers 54.7%), UNDER 44 (Covers 56.3%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Tennessee 20.8 - Arizona 19.7
SU Pick and Win%: Tennessee wins 53.1%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #11
ATS Pick and Win%: Arizona Cardinals +3 covers 54.7%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #5
ATS Wager for $50 player: $24
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (44) 56.3%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #4
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $41

The Teams: TEN ARI
Straight-Up Record 8-4 5-7
Against-the-Spread Record 5-7 3-8
Over/Under Record 6-5 5-7
Avg. Points For vs. Against 22.2-23.5 18.3-25.8
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #26 #16
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #16 #21
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #13 #28
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #13 #15
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #3 #8
Turnover Margin -4 -5

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 26% Tennessee, 74% Arizona; O/U Bets - 18% Over, 82% Under

The Breakdown: While I would love to build a case that Arizona is better than public perception, I do not think they actually are. In fact, they are currently among the ten worst teams in the league. This pick has almost everything to do with the Titans. Tennessee is 8-4 and likely making the playoffs, but the team has played the sixth easiest schedule and, despite winning two-thirds of their games, has been out scored on the season. Tennessee is better in literally all of our metrics, but, aside from Marcus Mariota's mobility (something Drew Stanton decidedly lacks), the teams are built with similar strengths and weaknesses.

Boxscore: Tennessee Titans, 21 @ Arizona Cardinals, 20

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA

Sunday, December 10 at 4:05 PM ET:

Los Angeles Chargers -6 vs Washington Redskins (Covers 53.9%), UNDER 46 (Covers 50.1%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Washington 19.3 - Los Angeles 26.7
SU Pick and Win%: Los Angeles wins 67.9%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Pick and Win%: Los Angeles Chargers -6 covers 53.9%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #8
ATS Wager for $50 player: $16
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (46) 50.1%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #14
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: WAS LAC
Straight-Up Record 5-7 6-6
Against-the-Spread Record 5-7 7-5
Over/Under Record 7-5 4-8
Avg. Points For vs. Against 22.7-26.2 22.3-17.7
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #1 #22
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #9 #5
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #26 #24
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #19 #3
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #23 #28
Turnover Margin -4 +11

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 43% Washington, 57% Los Angeles; O/U Bets - 100% Over, 0% Under

The Breakdown: The Chargers are for real. I have to be the first one ever to say that (actually, it's not even the first time I've written that in the last three weeks). Los Angeles is known for having Philip Rivers and down field, explosive weapons, but the Chargers' strength is far more in its ability to defend the pass.

Los Angeles has an elite pass rushing tandem off the edges in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, one of the league's best corners in Casey Heyward and a solid group of versatile, fast linebackers and safeties that seem to always be in the right spot. The Chargers are allowing just six yards per pass attempt (sixth best in NFL) on the season, have notched a sack on 8% of dropbacks (third best) and have intercepted 4% of opponents' passes (third). Remarkably they are behind Jacksonville in each of those metrics. Like Jacksonville, the team is built around speed, length, versatility and depth.

So, fewer matchups would be worse for the Redskins, who we often like to keep games competitive as underdogs due to their strong, playmaking, downfield passing attack with Kirk Cousins. They literally are below average in everything else in the game - and very banged up across the board regardless. Take away the passing game and the Chargers should win handily.

Boxscore: Washington Redskins, 19 @ Los Angeles Chargers, 27

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA

Sunday, December 10 at 4:05 PM ET:

New York Jets -1 @ Denver Broncos (Covers 53.1%), UNDER 41 (Covers 57.8%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Normal

The Vitals:

Projected Score: New York 19.6 - Denver 17.3
SU Pick and Win%: New York wins 55.6%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #7
ATS Pick and Win%: New York Jets -1 covers 53.1%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #9
ATS Wager for $50 player: $8
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (41) 57.8%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #2
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $57

The Teams: NYJ DEN
Straight-Up Record 5-7 3-9
Against-the-Spread Record 6-4 2-10
Over/Under Record 6-6 7-5
Avg. Points For vs. Against 22.2-24.0 17.2-26.3
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #18 #9
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #14 #27
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #22 #23
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #14 #16
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #15 #11
Turnover Margin 0 -16

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 89% New York, 11% Denver; O/U Bets - 72% Over, 28% Under

The Breakdown: This is a light play on a mediocre team and it is also in line with one of the "chalkiest" decisions of the week (~90% of wagers on Jets). During an eight game losing streak - both straight up and against the spread - the Broncos have averaged just 4.1 yards-per-play, which is last in the NFL. The Jets have averaged 1.3 yards every play more than that in that timeframe. The Broncos have seemingly lost their way, losing by double digits in seven of those games and by 3+ scores four times since mid-October. They have barely been competitive. It's one thing to look at the Browns and see a team that has some youth and talent that is trying and just not winning, but it is another to evaluate this Broncos' squad that has a decent defense, yet a putrid offense that rarely allows them to be in the game. It is incredibly difficult to trust a team like that to win against any team, even the New York Jets.

Boxscore: New York Jets, 20 @ Denver Broncos, 17

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA

Sunday, December 10 at 4:25 PM ET:

Seattle Seahawks +3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Covers 55.8%), UNDER 39.5 (Covers 53.5%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Seattle 18.4 - Jacksonville 19.2
SU Pick and Win%: Jacksonville wins 52.6%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #12
ATS Pick and Win%: Seattle Seahawks +3 covers 55.8%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Wager for $50 player: $36
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (39.5) 53.5%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #11
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $12

The Teams: SEA JAC
Straight-Up Record 8-4 8-4
Against-the-Spread Record 5-6 7-5
Over/Under Record 4-8 5-7
Avg. Points For vs. Against 24.2-18.5 24.9-14.8
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #27 #28
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #11 #19
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #9 #8
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #9 #1
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #10 #22
Turnover Margin +6 +12

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 89% Seattle, 11% Jacksonville; O/U Bets - 57% Over, 43% Under

The Breakdown: Despite the 8-4 record and chance to catch the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West, two things have plagued Seattle this season: shoddy blocking and offensive penalties. Through 12 games, the Seahawks have been flagged a league-high 114 times for a league-high 967 yards - 120 more penalty yards than the Jets who rank second.

However, if you've caught their past two games, in which they are 2-0, the whistles haven't blown and laundry hasn't flown as often. Seattle only committed five penalties for 46 yards in the Seahawks' win over the Eagles and six for 35 yards in their win over the 49ers. Now compare that to an average of 117 penalty yards in the three games before that, in which they were 1-2, and their 22-16 win at Arizona came against Drew Stanton. If the Seahawks continue to play clean and keep the football ahead of the chains, that makes Russell Wilson even more dangerous.

Do you know which Seattle running back leads the team in rushing? It's Chris Carson. The guy who hasn't played since October 1st. So, when third-year back Mike Davis is inserted into the lineup two weeks ago and proceeds to make an impact on the ground and passing game, the Seahawks welcome the unexpected, but desperately coveted, production. Davis racked over 100 total yards against the Eagles' league-leading rush defense last week. Davis as a viable threat opens up the option and play-action play calls, which are huge weapons for Wilson.

Leonard Fournette is obviously hampered by his bum ankle. He's rushed for less than 3.0 yards per carry in three out of his past four games; a span of 77 attempts. His lack of production places more pressure on Blake Bortles. Although the Jaguars quarterback has shined in two games against the Colts this season, he's still completing less than 60 percent of his passes and now faces Seattle's pass rush, which is arguably his toughest test to-date. Marqise Lee can only bail out Bortles so many times and Lee disappeared against the Cardinals when Patrick Peterson shadowed him. It could be deja vu all over again this Sunday.

Boxscore: Seattle Seahawks, 18 @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 19

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA

Sunday, December 10 at 4:25 PM ET:

Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 @ Los Angeles Rams (Covers 54.3%), UNDER 49 (Covers 52.0%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Philadelphia 23.5 - Los Angeles 24.1
SU Pick and Win%: Los Angeles wins 51.6%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #14
ATS Pick and Win%: Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 covers 54.3%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #6
ATS Wager for $50 player: $20
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (49) 52.0%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #12
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: PHI LA
Straight-Up Record 10-2 9-3
Against-the-Spread Record 9-3 8-4
Over/Under Record 5-7 7-5
Avg. Points For vs. Against 30.1-17.9 30.1-18.5
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #24 #20
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #10 #2
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #5 #18
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #4 #8
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #2 #26
Turnover Margin +7 +7

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 80% Philadelphia, 20% Los Angeles; O/U Bets - 31% Over, 69% Under

The Breakdown: The narrative around this game sets up almost as well as last week. Going into last week, the Eagles were considered broadly to be the clear best team in the NFL with an unstoppable offense facing a depleted defense. The spread and public love for them got out of hand in a very dangerous spot for the team and they only put up 10 points against that defense (en route to winning Prediction Machine its lock of the week on the Seahawks).

Now, the perception is that the Eagles are flawed after struggling so publicly and that everything may be about to fall apart for a young coach and quarterback. Meanwhile, an even younger coach and quarterback in LA have an offense that aided in putting up 32 points on the road last week and has been one of the most compelling on field stories of the season.

Well, the Eagles still rank first overall in our NFL Power Rankings and would be favored by about a field goal against the Rams on a neutral field. They literally rank in the top ten in all of our efficiency categories and are out gaining opponents by 0.9 yards-per-play. The Rams are fun to watch and have a great offense, but they are suspect defensively, especially against the run and recently lost Alec Ogletree, Connor Barwin and Robert Woods. They are likelier the team who is about to fall apart.

Boxscore: Philadelphia Eagles, 24 @ Los Angeles Rams, 24

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA

Sunday, December 10 at 8:30 PM ET:

Baltimore Ravens +6 @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Covers 52.8%), UNDER 43.5 (Covers 58.1%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Normal

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Baltimore 16.9 - Pittsburgh 21.9
SU Pick and Win%: Pittsburgh wins 63.3%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Pick and Win%: Baltimore Ravens +6 covers 52.8%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #11
ATS Wager for $50 player: $4
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (43.5) 58.1%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #1
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $60

The Teams: BAL PIT
Straight-Up Record 7-5 10-2
Against-the-Spread Record 7-4 6-6
Over/Under Record 7-4 3-9
Avg. Points For vs. Against 23.3-17.3 23.4-17.8
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #19 #17
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #24 #7
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #17 #19
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #2 #7
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #14 #18
Turnover Margin +14 -1

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 84% Baltimore, 16% Pittsburgh; O/U Bets - 0% Over, 100% Under

The Breakdown: With Ryan Shazier out and JuJu Smith-Schuster suspended (on the heels of some ugly play in two straight field goal wins against inferior opponents, the spread on this game has already dropped from the Steelers -7 in their fourth straight primetime game to -5.5 and still 80%+ of action is on the Ravens. That's disappointing because we liked the Ravens much more at +7, but value is quickly fleeting. The Ravens elite defense is noteworthy as is their propensity to play close games against the Steelers. In the last decade, 17 of the 22 matchups between these teams have been decided by a touchdown or less. Both teams are 10-10-2 ATS in that stretch. On the year, the Steelers have played in seven games decided by a touchdown or less.

Boxscore: Baltimore Ravens, 17 @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 22

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA

Monday, December 11 at 8:30 PM ET:

New England Patriots -11 @ Miami Dolphins (Covers 53.1%), OVER 47 (Covers 57.5%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Normal

The Vitals:

Projected Score: New England 31.9 - Miami 19.9
SU Pick and Win%: New England wins 78.9%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #1
ATS Pick and Win%: New England Patriots -11 covers 53.1%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #10
ATS Wager for $50 player: $8
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (47) 57.5%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #3
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $54

The Teams: NE MIA
Straight-Up Record 10-2 5-7
Against-the-Spread Record 7-5 4-6
Over/Under Record 5-6 7-5
Avg. Points For vs. Against 29.0-18.6 17.4-24.8
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #15 #3
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #1 #22
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #6 #25
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #17 #25
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #21 #16
Turnover Margin +9 -10

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 88% New England, 12% Miami; O/U Bets - 4% Over, 96% Under

The Breakdown: Congratulations to the Dolphins for moving up three spots in our Power Rankings after getting Jay Cutler back (he of the 6.1 yards-per-attempt and 15:11 TD-to-INT ratio) and winning easily over the Broncos. You are still one of the five worst teams in the NFL and literally not above average in any of our metrics. Miami has been outgained on the year by 0.75 yards per play and out scored by more than six points a game despite a 5-7 record.

The Patriots come to town without Rob Gronkowski, but with a team out gaining opponents by more than two yards a play in the last three weeks. New England is dominating as we initially expected before the season; it just took a couple weeks for the defense to get there. We rarely have opinions on double-digit road favorites or the Patriots, yet New England has won four straight by at least 18 points and faces a terrible team. This should not be close.

Boxscore: New England Patriots, 32 @ Miami Dolphins, 20

Game Pick: Game Breakdown

NO @ ATL GB @ CLE SF @ HOU OAK @ KC MIN @ CAR DAL @ NYG CHI @ CIN TEN @ ARI WAS @ LAC NYJ @ DEN SEA @ JAC PHI @ LA BAL @ PIT NE @ MIA