NFL Week 10: In-Depth Analysis

By Paul Bessire

Thursday, November 16 at 8:25 PM ET:

Tennessee Titans +7 @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Covers 55.1%), UNDER 44 (Covers 53.4%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Tennessee 18.4 - Pittsburgh 23.6
SU Pick and Win%: Pittsburgh wins 63.9%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #5
ATS Pick and Win%: Tennessee Titans +7 covers 55.1%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #7
ATS Wager for $50 player: $29
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (44) 53.4%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #6
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $11

The Teams: TEN PIT
Straight-Up Record 6-3 7-2
Against-the-Spread Record 3-6 5-4
Over/Under Record 5-3 1-8
Avg. Points For vs. Against 22.8-23.7 20.8-16.4
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #28 #16
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #15 #5
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #8 #15
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #14 #6
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #5 #21
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 55.0%/45.0% #54.4%/45.6%
Turnover Margin +1 -1

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 34% Tennessee, 66% Pittsburgh; O/U Bets - 83% Over, 17% Under

The Breakdown: Bye virtue of both being a heavy (seven point) underdog and seeing two thirds of all wagers on the opposition to cover as such a favorite, it is appropriate to say that the market has figured out that Tennessee is not "6-3" good. Said market seems to be overreacting to that fact, however, just to play the other side.

While Pittsburgh's defense has looked good as a whole (16.4 points allowed; the UNDER is 8-1 in their games), the Steelers have the sixth ranked passing defense in our numbers, while only coming in 21st in run defense. Pittsburgh has allowed a league-average schedule to rush for 4.2 yards-per-carry (NFL average is 4.0 ypc this year and 3.8 all time).

As two of the league's most run-heavy teams meet on Thursday night, Tennessee's clear advantage on the ground (the Titans are better than Pittsburgh in run offense and run defense), gives the road team a clear path to being competitive in what should be a defensive oriented (and likely uneventful) game. Not too surprisingly, we like the under and the underdog in a correlated play.

Boxscore: Tennessee Titans, 18 @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 24

Individual Pick: Game Pick

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA

Sunday, November 19 at 1:00 PM ET:

Baltimore Ravens -2 @ Green Bay Packers (Covers 56.3%), UNDER 38 (Covers 51.4%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Baltimore 20.8 - Green Bay 16.4
SU Pick and Win%: Baltimore wins 61.3%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #8
ATS Pick and Win%: Baltimore Ravens -2 covers 56.3%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Wager for $50 player: $41
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (38) 51.4%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #10
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: BAL GB
Straight-Up Record 4-5 5-4
Against-the-Spread Record 5-4 4-5
Over/Under Record 5-3 6-3
Avg. Points For vs. Against 21.1-19.0 22.7-23.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #24 #4
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #23 #22
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #10 #7
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #1 #23
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #19 #8
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 55.6%/44.4% #62.1%/37.9%
Turnover Margin +4 +6

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 48% Baltimore, 52% Green Bay; O/U Bets - 89% Over, 11% Under

The Breakdown: No Rodgers and no running game (Packers' top two running back also out this week) for Green Bay suggests that they will pose little threat against a Ravens team coming off a bye week and much healthier.

Sure, Joe Flacco has been terrible this season. He has thrown for just 5.33 yards-per-pass on the year and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. Brett Hundley has thrown for 5.44 yards-per-pass in his 132 career attempts and also has (2.5 times) more interceptions than touchdowns. He also has not won a Super Bowl, is generally not allowed to take chances down field and is facing the league's best pass defense. Flacco to Lambeau Field to take on a bottom ten pass defense in the league.

It's often oversimplifying things to focus on the quarterbacks, especially when their numbers look similar, but their respective matchups this week and total body of work suggest that, for one of the few times in multiple seasons (especially on the road), the Ravens have an edge because of Joe Flacco.

Boxscore: Baltimore Ravens, 21 @ Green Bay Packers, 16

Individual Pick: Game Pick

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA

Sunday, November 19 at 1:00 PM ET:

Washington Redskins +8 @ New Orleans Saints (Covers 55.6%), UNDER 51 (Covers 50.9%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Washington 22.3 - New Orleans 28.1
SU Pick and Win%: New Orleans wins 63.8%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #6
ATS Pick and Win%: Washington Redskins +8 covers 55.6%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Wager for $50 player: $34
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (51) 50.9%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #12
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: WAS NO
Straight-Up Record 4-5 7-2
Against-the-Spread Record 3-6 6-3
Over/Under Record 5-4 3-4
Avg. Points For vs. Against 23.0-25.8 29.8-18.3
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #2 #6
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #6 #2
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #25 #2
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #19 #10
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #15 #28
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 59.2%/40.8% #52.7%/47.3%
Turnover Margin -1 +3

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 46% Washington, 54% New Orleans; O/U Bets - 91% Over, 9% Under

The Breakdown: The Saints are up to #4 in our most recent NFL Power Rankings, suggesting that their 7-2 mark to start the year is no fluke. That being said, that improvement this season is almost exclusively due to a markedly better pass defense than before. And, where the pass defense does not explain advancements for the Saints, the running game does. In fact, the Saints are the fifth-most run-heavy team in the league right now. A good defense and solid running game are obviously important to winning in the NFL, yet rarely lead to winning big. And winning by more than a touchdown is winning big at this level.

Furthermore, the Redskins have an above average run defense and an offense willing and capable of taking the shots it needs to remain competitive (even if that has not always led to success this season). Inside, on turf may actually benefit the Redskins' style, explosiveness and talent.

Washington has played the second-toughest schedule to-date. It does not get much easier for them this week, yet that schedule suggests the Redskins are going to be undervalued for much of the rest of the year. Plus, the Saints are just 12-20 ATS (37%) as 8+ point favorites in the Drew Brees era, including failing to cover in five straight such games (losing three outright). Most of those games were with much worse defenses, but a run-dominant team is actually less likely to win big than the high-flying Saints of old.

Boxscore: Washington Redskins, 22 @ New Orleans Saints, 28

Individual Pick: Game Pick

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA

Sunday, November 19 at 1:00 PM ET:

New York Giants +11 vs Kansas City Chiefs (Covers 55.2%), OVER 45 (Covers 56.4%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Kansas City 29.1 - New York 19.9
SU Pick and Win%: Kansas City wins 72.5%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #1
ATS Pick and Win%: New York Giants +11 covers 55.2%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #6
ATS Wager for $50 player: $30
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (45) 56.4%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #2
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $42

The Teams: KC NYG
Straight-Up Record 6-3 1-8
Against-the-Spread Record 6-3 3-6
Over/Under Record 4-5 5-4
Avg. Points For vs. Against 28.1-23.1 16.7-26.4
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #3 #8
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #4 #19
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #1 #12
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #15 #28
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #24 #23
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 59.1%/40.9% #64.3%/35.7%
Turnover Margin +9 -2

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 65% Kansas City, 35% New York; O/U Bets - 99% Over, 1% Under

The Breakdown: Knowns: The Giants are not good. Andy Reid is awesome coming out of the bye week (historically). The Giants are 0-4 ATS at home this season. Odell Beckham Jr. is not playing.

I get it.

More importantly though, 11 points is A LOT of points to give up at home in the NFL. In the past ten NFL seasons, there have only been 20 such games and only seven different teams (the Giants are not one of them) are represented in that list of home underdogs. In the recorded history of the NFL betting line, it has only happened 90 times (the favorite is 39-49-2 ATS). While that is not in itself predictive or WHY the Chiefs fail to cover in this simulation, it illustrates how rare such a feat is.

With this matchup, the Giants have clearly looked very bad as of late, yet have kept games within ten points in more than half (5) of their games this year (9). They have also improved significantly on the ground recently, with Orleans Darkwa as lead back averaging 5.1 yards-per-carry. Kansas City is among the ten worst teams in the NFL at run defense. If the Giants get the opportunity to focus on the run, they should keep this game close and may even have a chance to win. Either way, the Chiefs do not appear dominant enough to expect to win this easily.

Boxscore: Kansas City Chiefs, 29 @ New York Giants, 20

Individual Pick: Game Pick

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA

Sunday, November 19 at 1:00 PM ET:

Houston Texans +1 vs Arizona Cardinals (Covers 54.6%), OVER 40 (Covers 51.4%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Arizona 19.5 - Houston 21.3
SU Pick and Win%: Houston wins 54.4%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #10
ATS Pick and Win%: Houston Texans +1 covers 54.6%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #9
ATS Wager for $50 player: $23
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (40) 51.4%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #11
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: ARI HOU
Straight-Up Record 4-5 3-6
Against-the-Spread Record 2-6 5-4
Over/Under Record 2-7 5-4
Avg. Points For vs. Against 17.2-24.8 26.2-26.8
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #19 #14
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #26 #24
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #27 #11
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #18 #24
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #13 #12
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 64.2%/35.8% #55.0%/45.0%
Turnover Margin -5 -5

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 46% Arizona, 54% Houston; O/U Bets - 1% Over, 99% Under

The Breakdown: Coming out of college and entering the draft, we evaluated Blaine Gabbert as the tenth ranked quarterback in his class. He went as the tenth player drafted overall. In his career, he has thrown for 6.00 yards-per-pass on 56% completions and has either been intercepted or fumbled 61 times to just 41 touchdowns. The fact that he may actually be better than Drew Stanton (whom he is replacing for the Cardinals this week) or Tom Savage (the Texans' quarterback) does not hide the fact that he is terrible. Plus, in our metrics, the Cardinals passing offense ranks the same (26th overall) with either Stanton or Gabbert and slightly behind the Texans (#24).

Additionally, the Texans are a better running team (offensively and defensively), have played a tougher strength-of-schedule and are playing at home. As bad as Savage and as beat up as the defense are, the Texans should not be an underdog. It's close (the teams are even on a neutral field) and it's definitely not pretty, but the Texans should be expected to pull off a win.

Boxscore: Arizona Cardinals, 19 @ Houston Texans, 21

Individual Pick: Game Pick

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA

Sunday, November 19 at 1:00 PM ET:

Chicago Bears +3 vs Detroit Lions (Covers 54.3%), OVER 41 (Covers 50.0%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Detroit 21.2 - Chicago 19.8
SU Pick and Win%: Detroit wins 53.8%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #11
ATS Pick and Win%: Chicago Bears +3 covers 54.3%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #11
ATS Wager for $50 player: $20
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (41) 50.0%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #14
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: DET CHI
Straight-Up Record 5-4 3-6
Against-the-Spread Record 5-4 5-3
Over/Under Record 6-3 3-6
Avg. Points For vs. Against 27.1-23.3 16.7-21.6
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #11 #1
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #11 #20
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #24 #17
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #20 #16
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #9 #11
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 62.3%/37.7% #51.9%/48.1%
Turnover Margin +7 -5

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 75% Detroit, 25% Chicago; O/U Bets - 36% Over, 64% Under

The Breakdown: The Lions just won by 14 points at home over the winless Browns. That may sound reasonable, but our expected points model suggests that they should have actually lost based off yardage gained and allowed over the game itself. The Browns fell apart at the end of each half, but the game was far more competitive than the final score.

It's not really a compliment, but the Bears are similar to the Browns in many ways. They have an inexperienced rookie quarterback who can make plays with his legs and has a strong arm and very little idea what he is doing with the football. They also are run-heavy with a strong stable of running backs. They have a good, experienced offensive line. And, they have plenty of young, athletic pass rushers on defense. That may not always be a recipe for winning games, but it goes a long way toward covering the spread, especially as a home underdog.

The Lions have relied heavily on turnovers to top .500, while the Bears are on the opposite side of that. Some of that is sustainable due to talent, coaching and experience, but it is difficult to count on it as the differentiator. Also, the Bears have played the league's toughest schedule and have gone 4-1 ATS with Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback.

Boxscore: Detroit Lions, 21 @ Chicago Bears, 20

Individual Pick: Game Pick

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA

Sunday, November 19 at 1:00 PM ET:

Cleveland Browns +7.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars (Covers 52.9%), OVER 37.5 (Covers 50.2%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Jacksonville 22.1 - Cleveland 15.5
SU Pick and Win%: Jacksonville wins 68.5%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Pick and Win%: Cleveland Browns +7.5 covers 52.9%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #12
ATS Wager for $50 player: $5
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (37.5) 50.2%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #13
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: JAC CLE
Straight-Up Record 6-3 0-9
Against-the-Spread Record 5-4 2-7
Over/Under Record 4-5 4-5
Avg. Points For vs. Against 25.1-14.9 15.9-26.7
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #23 #18
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #18 #28
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #4 #13
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #2 #22
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #26 #1
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 49.8%/50.2% #63.0%/37.0%
Turnover Margin +7 -13

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 71% Jacksonville, 29% Cleveland; O/U Bets - 50% Over, 50% Under

The Breakdown: A very light play on the Browns comes for many of the reasons mentioned above relative to the Browns game at Detroit last week. They should have been more competitive in the final score of that game and get an opportunity to come back with a respectable performance at home. A major factor in this specific match up is the league's top ranked run defense in Cleveland (just 3.0 yards-per-carry) facing the NFL's most run-heavy team (Jacksonville is the only team to run more than pass).

Boxscore: Jacksonville Jaguars, 22 @ Cleveland Browns, 15

Individual Pick: Game Pick

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA

Sunday, November 19 at 1:00 PM ET:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers PK @ Miami Dolphins (Covers 52.4%), OVER 40.5 (Covers 54.2%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Tampa Bay 22.0 - Miami 20.9
SU Pick and Win%: Tampa Bay wins 52.4%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #13
ATS Pick and Win%: Tampa Bay Buccaneers PK covers 52.4%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #13
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (40.5) 54.2%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #4
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $19

The Teams: TB MIA
Straight-Up Record 3-6 4-5
Against-the-Spread Record 3-5 3-4
Over/Under Record 4-5 4-5
Avg. Points For vs. Against 19.2-23.1 15.2-24.9
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #13 #9
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #17 #25
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #22 #26
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #25 #26
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #7 #6
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 63.2%/36.8% #62.9%/37.1%
Turnover Margin 0 -4

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 81% Tampa Bay, 19% Miami; O/U Bets - 43% Over, 57% Under

The Breakdown: Recent movement in the line coming out of the Monday Night Football mess for the Dolphins has stripped all value from this pick. Earlier in the week, the Dolphins were favored by 2.5 points and we would have been projecting an upset here. In a very close game and the PK spread, there is no longer real value.

Boxscore: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 22 @ Miami Dolphins, 21

Individual Pick: Game Pick

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA

Sunday, November 19 at 1:00 PM ET:

Los Angeles Rams +2.5 @ Minnesota Vikings (Covers 50.1%), UNDER 46 (Covers 54.5%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Los Angeles 20.4 - Minnesota 22.9
SU Pick and Win%: Minnesota wins 56.2%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #9
ATS Pick and Win%: Los Angeles Rams +2.5 covers 50.1%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #14
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (46) 54.5%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #3
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $22

The Teams: LA MIN
Straight-Up Record 7-2 7-2
Against-the-Spread Record 6-3 6-2
Over/Under Record 6-3 4-4
Avg. Points For vs. Against 32.9-18.0 24.1-18.3
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #26 #15
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #3 #8
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #16 #19
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #5 #4
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #25 #2
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 51.8%/48.2% #53.9%/46.1%
Turnover Margin +7 +1

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 54% Los Angeles, 46% Minnesota; O/U Bets - 72% Over, 28% Under

The Breakdown: The best game of the day (record wise at least) is the only true "no pick" of the week. That's uneventful, but means that these teams are pretty evenly matched - as the records would lead one to believe. On a neutral field, this is a coin flip. In Minnesota, it looks like around a field goal win for the Vikings.

Boxscore: Los Angeles Rams, 20 @ Minnesota Vikings, 23

Individual Pick: Game Pick

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA

Sunday, November 19 at 4:05 PM ET:

Los Angeles Chargers -4 vs Buffalo Bills (Covers 55.3%), UNDER 43.5 (Covers 53.6%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Buffalo 17.8 - Los Angeles 23.7
SU Pick and Win%: Los Angeles wins 65.6%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Pick and Win%: Los Angeles Chargers -4 covers 55.3%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #5
ATS Wager for $50 player: $31
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (43.5) 53.6%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #5
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $13

The Teams: BUF LAC
Straight-Up Record 5-4 3-6
Against-the-Spread Record 4-3 5-4
Over/Under Record 5-4 3-6
Avg. Points For vs. Against 20.4-21.8 18.6-19.1
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #20 #7
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #21 #14
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #23 #21
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #17 #8
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #16 #27
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 52.4%/47.6% #61.5%/38.5%
Turnover Margin +11 +1

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 32% Buffalo, 68% Los Angeles; O/U Bets - 100% Over, 0% Under

The Breakdown: Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane seem to have come from the Pete Carroll and John Schneider school of immediately overhauling every part of the roster to fit their approach and style. It worked for the Seahawks and has worked thus far in the Bills exceeding expectations. That being said, it is hard to make the case that starting Nathan Peterman over Tyrod Taylor this week makes them more competitive. In fact, with respect to size, athleticism, capabilities, etc. it's essentially the opposite of choosing Russell Wilson over Matt Flynn.

Peterman is a fairly-immobile (he ran 123 times in 35 college games) pocket passer with just seven career college games with 25+ pass attempts. He threw 43 pass attempts in two years at Tennessee (completing just 20 of them) before transferring to Pitt and attempting just 620 passes in 26 career games. He threw for 5,142 yards (8.2 yards-per-attempt), 47 TDs and 15 INTs at Pitt. His yards-per-pass would rank 26th in the nation this season and multiple QBs are on pace to throw for more attempts and yards in this season alone. Peterman is ok, but nothing worth excitement.

That's really true of the entire Bills team. Buffalo is 5-4 despite being out-scored by a below average schedule. The Bills do not rank above average in any of our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics. The Chargers are significantly better, yet they are better and at home. The Chargers have the offensive and defensive passing edge, which is certainly relevant when throwing the ball 60%+ as they do.

***Philip Rivers is technically still in the concussion protocol. Were he not to play, that would change this projection. The fact that the game is on the board and no discussions seem to permeate regarding Kellen Clemens or Cardale Jones playing seems to suggest that Rivers will play. if he does not, we will update as soon as we know that information.***

Boxscore: Buffalo Bills, 18 @ Los Angeles Chargers, 24

Individual Pick: Game Pick

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA

Sunday, November 19 at 4:25 PM ET:

New England Patriots -6.5 @ Oakland Raiders (Covers 57.4%), OVER 53.5 (Covers 51.9%)
ATS Play Type: Normal
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: New England 32.0 - Oakland 22.8
SU Pick and Win%: New England wins 71.7%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Pick and Win%: New England Patriots -6.5 covers 57.4%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #1
ATS Wager for $50 player: $53
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (53.5) 51.9%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #9
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: NE OAK
Straight-Up Record 7-2 4-5
Against-the-Spread Record 4-5 3-5
Over/Under Record 4-4 5-4
Avg. Points For vs. Against 28.6-21.7 21.8-23.8
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #12 #21
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #1 #12
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #9 #14
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #21 #27
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #22 #10
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 59.5%/40.5% #62.9%/37.1%
Turnover Margin +6 -7

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 81% New England, 19% Oakland; O/U Bets - 91% Over, 9% Under

The Breakdown: What the *$@&? This is the 16th time that the New England Patriots have been featured as part of the NFL Lock of the Week in PredictionMachine.com's history. It is the FIRST time in the 157 week history of the site that the Patriots are the team the simulation engine is picking in the Lock of the Week. While we do seem to agree with the vast majority of the public (the line has already moved to -7 in many places), I think there are three main components leading to value here:

1) Neutral Field - Many fans and casual bettors looking at this game may assume that it is being played at Oakland. It is actually being played in Mexico City, which we can assume to be neutral. Oftentimes, the spread is off in such (non Super Bowl) games by a point or two to exploit those who blindly look at teams listed as "home" or "away."

2) Bye Week - One may believe that, because Oakland is coming off its bye week, it should improve. That would assume that either Oakland is talented and well coached enough to improve or that it needed to get healthy. Neither is true. Oakland is not very good. Last season was more the anomaly than this year's 4-5 start to the season. The pass defense for Oakland was among the worst in the league all year in 2016 and is again in 2017. Oakland has been out-gained on a per-play basis despite playing an easy schedule.

3) New England's Defense - Overall, New England's defensive numbers do not look good on the year. Enter the best coaching staff in football. The Patriots have only given up six more points in the last five games than they did in their first two this season, with no opponent since October 1 scoring more than 17 or gaining more than 410 total yards against the team.

The Patriots have the league's best passing offense, a top ten run offense and an improving defense facing another below average opponent. They have won four straight by a touchdown or more and look to do the same in Mexico City this week.

Boxscore: New England Patriots, 32 @ Oakland Raiders, 23

Individual Pick: Game Pick

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA

Sunday, November 19 at 4:25 PM ET:

Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 @ Denver Broncos (Covers 54.4%), UNDER 39 (Covers 52.2%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Not Playable

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Cincinnati 18.5 - Denver 19.4
SU Pick and Win%: Denver wins 52.5%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #12
ATS Pick and Win%: Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 covers 54.4%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #10
ATS Wager for $50 player: $21
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (39) 52.2%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #8
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

The Teams: CIN DEN
Straight-Up Record 3-6 3-6
Against-the-Spread Record 4-5 2-7
Over/Under Record 4-5 6-3
Avg. Points For vs. Against 16.6-20.2 18.4-26.6
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #22 #5
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #16 #27
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #28 #20
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #3 #13
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #20 #4
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 59.4%/40.6% #58.9%/41.1%
Turnover Margin -9 -14

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 17% Cincinnati, 83% Denver; O/U Bets - 48% Over, 52% Under

The Breakdown: This is not a chalky play... Cincinnati is receiving just 17% of the wagers thus far at this line. It's likely that the public has seen Andy Dalton's play this season, remembers the elite nature of Denver's pass defense and thinks that the Bengals will struggle to score. They will. Denver should too, though. Brock Osweiler is objectively worse than Dalton and, this year and as presently constructed, at least the Bengals defense has actually been even better than the Broncos against the pass. In fact, Cincinnati is out-gaining opponents by a full yard per pass attempt this year, while the Broncos have been out-gained through the air by about a half a yard per pass (a number that has not improved with Brock Osweiler at quarterback). It's an ugly, defensive game, but the edge goes to the team getting points.

Boxscore: Cincinnati Bengals, 19 @ Denver Broncos, 19

Individual Pick: Game Pick

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA

Sunday, November 19 at 8:30 PM ET:

Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ Dallas Cowboys (Covers 54.9%), UNDER 48 (Covers 56.5%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Philadelphia 24.4 - Dallas 19.5
SU Pick and Win%: Philadelphia wins 62.2%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #7
ATS Pick and Win%: Philadelphia Eagles -3 covers 54.9%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #8
ATS Wager for $50 player: $26
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (48) 56.5%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #1
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $43

The Teams: PHI DAL
Straight-Up Record 8-1 5-4
Against-the-Spread Record 7-2 5-4
Over/Under Record 5-4 5-4
Avg. Points For vs. Against 31.4-19.9 25.9-22.8
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #25 #17
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #9 #13
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #6 #5
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #7 #11
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #3 #17
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 52.8%/47.2% #53.6%/46.4%
Turnover Margin +6 +2

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 88% Philadelphia, 12% Dallas; O/U Bets - 86% Over, 14% Under

The Breakdown: This is chalky for the most bet game of the week, sure. But it checks out in the numbers that the Eagles should be winning this game. Ezekiel Elliott is suspended, Sean Lee is reportedly out the next three games with a bad hamstring and left tackle Tyron Smith's Week 11 status remains uncertain as he works back from a groin injury.

With Zeke out, Dak Prescott becomes the focal point of the Cowboys' offense. He needs better protection than he received Week 10 when Atlanta sacked him eight times with Adrian Clayborn's six illustrating the importance of a healthy and active Tyron Smith. The Falcons finished with 11 tackles for loss and held Dallas to 3.9 yards per play. The Cowboys per play average on the season has dipped from 5.6 to 4.9 the past three games. Dez Bryant has been held under 65 receiving yards in all but two games this season and yet he leads the team in receiving.

So, it's not the best time for the hottest team in football, coming off their BYE, to come to town. Philadelphia has won seven straight and averaged 33.3 points per win. However, lost in the glitter and gleam of Carson Wentz's spectacular sophomore season is how the Eagles defense is also improving as the season plays out. Over the past three games, they've allowed just 4.3 yards per play – third-fewest in the NFL. As it pertains to a potentially undermanned Dallas offensive line, Philly has 11 sacks in that three-game stretch and 25 on the season (t-10th).

Led by Wentz, the Eagles rank sixth in yards per play at 5.7 yards per pop. Without Lee on the field, you can expect a heavy dose of Jay Ajayi and Zach Ertz - who is expected to return after missing Week 9 with a hamstring injury.

With Dallas missing so many pieces to the puzzle that helped them win 13 games a season ago, expect the regression observed against the Falcons to continue this weekend.

Boxscore: Philadelphia Eagles, 24 @ Dallas Cowboys, 20

Individual Pick: Game Breakdown

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA

Monday, November 20 at 8:30 PM ET:

Atlanta Falcons +3 @ Seattle Seahawks (Covers 55.8%), OVER 45 (Covers 52.5%)
ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
O/U Play Type: Light

The Vitals:

Projected Score: Atlanta 23.0 - Seattle 23.6
SU Pick and Win%: Seattle wins 51.4%
Week 11 SU Confidence Rank: #14
ATS Pick and Win%: Atlanta Falcons +3 covers 55.8%
Week 11 ATS Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Wager for $50 player: $36
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (45) 52.5%
Week 11 O/U Confidence Rank: #7
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $1

The Teams: ATL SEA
Straight-Up Record 5-4 6-3
Against-the-Spread Record 4-5 3-5
Over/Under Record 2-7 3-6
Avg. Points For vs. Against 21.9-19.9 23.4-18.3
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #10 #27
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #7 #10
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #3 #18
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #9 #12
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #18 #14
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 57.5%/42.5% #60.1%/39.9%
Turnover Margin -3 +6

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 54% Atlanta, 46% Seattle; O/U Bets - 68% Over, 32% Under

The Breakdown: Legion of ... wait. Richard Sherman is out for the year. Earl Thomas is banged up. Kam Chancellor is playing, yet at less than 100%. The team just signed former Seahawk and recent Falcons cast-off Byron Maxwell to play corner. Even if it is not nearly as exciting an offense as it was under Kyle Shanahan last season, the Falcons have enough talent to exploit these Seahawk issues in the secondary.

Oh yeah, also hurt for the Seahawks are Cliff Avril, Jarran Reed, three different running backs, recently acquired LT Duane Brown (previous LT, Rees Odhiambo is on IR) and Paul Richardson. Facing a Falcons team that quietly has a top ten pass defense - to go with a top ten run and pass offense - will be very difficult for Seattle with a depleted secondary and banged-up/bad offensive line, even in primetime at home. The best way to counter the Falcons is to run right at them. That has often been Pete Carroll's MO, but the team is throwing 60%+ of the time and does not have an RB on the roster with more than 50 carries, 210 yards or 4.2 yards-per-carry on the year. Russell Wilson cannot do it all by himself. An upset is very possible on Monday night.

Boxscore: Atlanta Falcons, 23 @ Seattle Seahawks, 24

Individual Pick: Game Pick

TEN @ PIT BAL @ GB WAS @ NO KC @ NYG ARI @ HOU DET @ CHI JAC @ CLE TB @ MIA LA @ MIN BUF @ LAC NE @ OAK CIN @ DEN PHI @ DAL ATL @ SEA