Soaring Scoring (07/10/14)

By Paul Bessire
Over the next few weeks we will reveal a prediction involving an interesting player or team prediction leading into the 2014 NFL season.



Prediction: Scoring will Soar

Scoring across the NFL will continue to increase. In 50,000 simulations of the season, a total of 12,700 points are projected. In 2013, 11,985 points were scored, suggesting a likely 6% increase in points or nearly an extra field goal per game. This would be the fifth consecutive season with increased scoring. While a great defense, especially against the pass, seems to be a strong characteristic of successful teams in our 2014 projections, not every team has a good one. Meanwhile, just about every team has made tweaks to run faster, dictate tempo and/or pass more often in recent years. Heading into 2014, Miami and Pittsburgh are two examples of teams that intend to play a high-tempo, no-huddle offense unlike anything we have seen from those teams in the past.

In our projections, the Eagles lead the league in scoring at 31.5/game. Philadelphia is followed by (in order) the Broncos, Packers, Saints, Patriots, Colts and Cowboys. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Cowboys also allow a lot of points. In the projections, Dallas gives up almost four more points per game than any other team (Chicago is next). No team is projected to allow fewer than 300 points (Seattle gives up 301), which would be a first in NFL history if it occurs.