MVP, Rush, Pass, Rec Odds (08/21/13)

By John Ewing
Odds are, you’re ready for some football. NFL Football Player Props: MVP, passing, rushing, and receiving yards leaders. A look at the odds for all the top players. Lines courtesy of

If you are reading this, then you already know we offer over/under win totals, futures picks, and projected scores for every game, which you can happily wager on. If you like wagers like these, then you will love the NFL player props. Below we look at the odds to win the MVP and odds on which player will lead the league in passing, rushing, and receiving yards. Lines courtesy of 
Peyton Manning – 5/1
Projected stats: 4,461 passing yards, 37 TDs, 15 INTs
Manning is the odds on favorite at 5/1 (last year he was 10/1); his odds imply that he wins his fifth MVP 16.6% of the time. Denver is the most likely team to make the playoffs (91.1%) and our second favorite Super Bowl winner (14.6%). I’ve always been a fan of Manning but his odds are too high, pass. 
Note: Manning’s rushing statistics are not listed because they are irrelevant.
Aaron Rodgers – 13/2
Projected stats: 4,204 passing yards, 39 TDs, 12 INTs, 165 rushing yards, 2 TDs
Rodgers won the MVP in 2011 after propelling the Packers to a 15-1 record; he was 5th in yards (4,643) and 2nd in touchdowns (45). Rodgers was the favorite to begin last season at 11/2 and has slightly worse odds this season but still not a lot of value in his line.
Colin Kaepernick – 10/1
Projected stats: 3,750 passing yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs, 519 rushing yards, 6 TDs
If I were going to pick one of the favorites it would be Kaepernick. His flair for the dramatic and his ability to make highlight reels could thrust him into his first MVP, plus 10/1 odds aren’t bad. He will have the numbers to back up what we expect to be a Super Bowl season for the 49ers (20.1% likely to win). However, I want longer odds.
My Pick: Cam Newton – 33/1
Projected stats: 3,852 passing yards, 23 TDs, 14 INTs, 716 rushing yards, 7 TDs
At 33/1 you only have to believe that Newton has better than 2.9% chance of winning the MVP to feel comfortable placing this wager. We believe the NFC South is wide open, all teams win between 7.5 and 8.5 games. The Panthers tie the Falcons for the best record in the division and have a 30.3% chance to make the playoffs. A projected strong season, impressive statistics and long odds make Newton my MVP value pick.

Player Odds
Peyton Manning  5/1
Aaron Rodgers  13/2
Colin Kaepernick  10/1
Drew Brees  10/1
Adrian Peterson  12/1
Tom Brady  12/1
Matt Ryan  15/1
Robert Griffin III  18/1
Russell Wilson  18/1
Andrew Luck  25/1
Calvin Johnson  25/1
Eli Manning  25/1
Arian Foster  33/1
Ben Roethlisberger  33/1
Cam Newton  33/1
Matthew Stafford  33/1
Michael Vick  33/1
Tony Romo  33/1
Matt Schaub  40/1
J.J. Watt  40/1
Chris Johnson  50/1
Joe Flacco  50/1
Marshawn Lynch  50/1
Philip Rivers  50/1
Jay Cutler  66/1
Ray Rice  66/1
Alfred Morris  66/1
Jamaal Charles  66/1
Matt Forte  66/1
Steven Jackson  66/1
Doug Martin  66/1
Andy Dalton  75/1
Alex Smith  75/1
Josh Freeman  75/1
Sam Bradford  75/1
A.J. Green  100/1
Andre Johnson  100/1
Brandon Marshall  100/1
Reggie Bush  150/1
Passing Leader

Drew Brees – 4/1
Projected stats: 4,785 passing yards, 38 TDs, 15 INTs
Brees is the favorite and rightfully so, he has lead the league in passing yardage in each of the last two seasons and three out of the last five. We project Brees to lead the league in passing again this season with 4,784 yards. Brees is a safe bet and at 4/1 odds you just have to have more than 20% confidence in order to make this wager.
My Pick: Tom Brady – 12/1
Projected stats: 4,473 passing yards, 31 TDs, 14 INTs
Brady has the 5th best odds yet we project him with the 3rd highest passing yardage total (4,473) this season; Matt Ryan is second with 4,525 yards. If Amendola can stay healthy and Gronk plays the majority of the Patriots games, Brady has a real shot to lead the league in passing like he did in 2007. Plus, you only need 7.7% confidence in order to make this wager.
Player Odds
Drew Brees  4/1
Aaron Rodgers  6/1
Matthew Stafford  13/2
Peyton Manning  7/1
Matt Ryan  10/1
Tom Brady  12/1
Tony Romo  15/1
Andrew Luck  15/1
Eli Manning  20/1
Jay Cutler  28/1
Philip Rivers  33/1
Matt Schaub  33/1
Cam Newton  33/1
Ben Roethlisberger  33/1
Sam Bradford  40/1
Carson Palmer  40/1
Josh Freeman  40/1
Andy Dalton  40/1
Joe Flacco  40/1
Colin Kaepernick  40/1
Robert Griffin III  50/1
Ryan Tannehill  50/1
Alex Smith  50/1
Russell Wilson  66/1
Michael Vick  66/1
Mark Sanchez  200/1

Rushing Leader 

Adrian Peterson – 11/4
Projected stats: 1,728 rushing yards, 10 TDs
All Day, like Brees, is the favorite for a reason. His projected rushing total of 1,728 yards is 369 yards shy of his 2012 total but it is 329 yards more than the next highest projected back this season. At 11/4 odds you need greater than 26.7% confidence in order to make this wager.
My Pick: Alfred Morris – 12/1
Projected stats: 1,399 rushing yards, 12 TDs
As a rookie Morris was second in rushing touchdowns, rushing yards per game, and total rushing yards. We expect a strong sophomore campaign for Morris even though his projected yardage would be a 13% decrease from last year. At 12/1 odds you need greater than 7.7% confidence in order to make this wager.

Player Odds
Adrian Peterson  11/4
Marshawn Lynch  7/1
Doug Martin  10/1
Arian Foster  10/1
Alfred Morris  12/1
Jamaal Charles  14/1
C.J. Spiller  14/1
Trent Richardson  16/1
Chris Johnson  18/1
Ray Rice  18/1
LeSean McCoy  20/1
Maurice Jones-Drew  20/1
Stevan Ridley  25/1
Matt Forte  28/1
Steven Jackson  28/1
Frank Gore  33/1
DeMarco Murray  33/1
Darren McFadden  33/1
Reggie Bush  40/1
Lamar Miller  40/1
Montee Ball  40/1
Ryan Mathews  50/1
Rashard Mendenhall  50/1
Ahmad Bradshaw  50/1
Receiving Leader

Calvin Johnson – 11/4
Projected stats: 1,415 receiving yards, 9 TDs
Johnson was a monster last season setting an NFL record with 1,964 receiving yards. Megatron has led the league in receiving in each of the last two seasons. In his favor to repeat, Matthew Stafford is likely to lead the league in passing attempts, he topped 700 attempts last season. Of Stafford’s 727 attempts, 28.2% were thrown to Johnson.
My Pick: Dez Bryant – 8/1
Projected stats: 1,377 receiving yards, 10 TDs
Bryant is the clear No. 1 option in Dallas. With the Cowboys offense expected to throw a lot (projected 603 attempts, 4th most in NFL), there is reason to believe that Bryant’s numbers could increase across the board. 

Player Odds
Calvin Johnson  11/4
Dez Bryant  8/1
A.J. Green  9/1
Brandon Marshall  9/1
Julio Jones  14/1
Demaryius Thomas  14/1
Larry Fitzgerald  18/1
Andre Johnson  18/1
Roddy White  20/1
Randall Cobb  20/1
Vincent Jackson  20/1
Victor Cruz  20/1
Wes Welker  22/1
Danny Amendola  22/1
Dwayne Bowe  33/1
Marques Colston  33/1
Reggie Wayne  33/1
Steve Smith  33/1
Antonio Brown  40/1
Hakeem Nicks  40/1
Mike Wallace  40/1
Eric Decker  40/1
DeSean Jackson  40/1
Pierre Garcon  50/1
Jordy Nelson  50/1
Kenny Britt  50/1
Tavon Austin  50/1
Miles Austin  50/1
Anquan Boldin  50/1
Jimmy Graham  50/1
Cecil Shorts  66/1
Torrey Smith  66/1
Steve Johnson  75/1
Greg Jennings  100/1