NFL Line Movements (10/10/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Broncos, Lions and Chargers. Lines courtesy of

Last week, five teams won after trailing by double-digits and the league's last remaining undefeated teams (Bengals and Cardinals) got thrashed. ­Week 6 is likely to be just as entertaining.

Let's take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today.

Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Broncos, Lions and Chargers.

Broncos vs. Jets

This is a matchup featuring two teams heading in opposite directions. The Broncos are No. 2 in our Power Rankings and Denver is the most likely team to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Jets on the other hand are battling the Jaguars for the worst pass defense in the league having allowed 12 passing touchdowns against just one interception, not great when Peyton Manning is coming to town.

The Broncos opened as 4.5 point favorites in the look-ahead lines before last Sunday's action. With Denver rolling Arizona and the Jets being shut out by the Chargers, this line has been pounded. Over 90 percent of the action is on Denver to cover. The Broncos are now 9.5 point road favorites.

When will Peyton Manning break Brett Favre's record of 508 career TD Passes?
  • Week 6 vs. the Jets: 12/1
  • Week 7 1st Half vs. 49ers: 5/2
  • Week 7 2nd Half vs. 49ers: 9/5
  • Week 8 1st Half vs. Chargers: 5/2
  • Week 8 2nd Half vs. Chargers: 5/1
  • Week 9 or after: 10/1

Manning is on the verge of breaking Brett Favre's NFL record of 508 touchdowns thrown and the former Packer great couldn't be happier. Manning is five touchdowns shy of tying the record. The Broncos quarterback has thrown at least five touchdowns in eight career games, twice last year.

The odds favor Manning breaking the record in the 2nd Half of Denver's Week 7 tilt against San Francisco.

Lions vs. Vikings

Detroit opened as more than a field goal favorite. However, injury issues (positive for Minnesota and negative for Detroit) have swung this line to a pick'em. The Lions may be without All-Pro Calvin Johnson (high ankle sprain), while the Vikings are expecting first round pick Teddy Bridgewater to be fully recovered from an ankle injury of his own.

Megatron's absence would be a blow to a Lions team that struggles on the road. Since 2011, with Matthew Stafford starting every game, Detroit as a road favorite is just 4-7-1 (36% ATS).

Will Matt Prater miss a Field Goal in Week 6?
  • Yes: 2/1
  • No: 1/3

Prater will be the third kicker used by the Lions this season. A Detroit kicker has missed at least one field goal in each game this season.

Chargers vs. Raiders

San Diego is looking for its fifth straight win. Oakland is winless. The Chargers were initially less than a touchdown favorite on the road but now have been bet up to 7 point favorites as 80 percent of wagers are backing Philip Rivers.

Who will record more Rushing Yards Week 6?
  • Andre Williams (NYG) RB: 1/1
  • Brandon Oliver (SD) RB: 1/1
  • Ronnie Hillman (DEN) RB: 5/1

San Diego has dealt with a number of injuries to its offensive line as well as at running back. The Chargers are down to undrafted rookie Branden Oliver after Donald Brown sustained a concussion. Oliver, along with Andre Williams and Ronnie Hillman were the hot waiver wire adds in your fantasy league.

Which player will record more rushing yards this week?

Oliver is projected to be a top 10 fantasy running back but Williams is projected to record the most rushing yards of the trio of new starters.