NFL Line Movements (09/25/14)

By John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Eagles, Dolphins and Jaguars. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.



The NFL bye weeks have started. Six teams are out of commission. SIX! Including two undefeated squads – Cincinnati and Arizona. No need to fret.

With another week of upsets and surprises looming, we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today.

Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Eagles, Dolphins and Jaguars.

Jaguars vs. Chargers


Chad Henne is out, Blake Bortles is in. This line opened at San Diego -10 but is now at -13.5 as the Chargers are 10/1 to win this game straight-up.

The Jaguars are the worst team in our Power Rankings, yet since 2004, underdogs of 10 or more points are 199-155-3 (56% ATS). Bortles first start might not be a win but it could be a cover.

Total Passing Yards - Blake Bortles Week 4
Over/Under: 250.5

Total TD Passes - Blake Bortles Week 4
Over/Under: 1.5

Total Interceptions - Blake Bortles Week 4
Over/Under: 0.5

Bortles, Jacksonville's first pick and third overall in the draft, will get his first career NFL start. It might be ugly as we predict the under on total passing yards and touchdowns, yet over on interceptions.

49ers vs. Eagles


Philadelphia (3-0) is one of just three undefeated teams (only one not on a bye this week) and the first club in league history to win its first three games despite trailing by at least 10 points in each contest. Early money backed San Francisco as the better team despite back-to-back losses with the line opening at 49ers -4 before being bet up to -5.5.

The line has since settled at Eagles +4.5. Perhaps gamblers are aware that the Eagles, in the Chip Kelly era, as road dogs are 5-1 (83% ATS).

2nd half spread Eagles vs. 49ers
San Francisco 49ers: -2.5

The Eagles have the best second half differential in the league outscoring opponents 68-26. The 49ers are at the other end of the spectrum with the worst second half point differential being outscored 52-3.

Dolphins vs. Raiders


In the first of three regular season games to be played in London, Miami opened as 5 point favorites in the British capital. After starting the season upsetting New England, the Dolphins have dropped two in a row and now have quarterback drama, as Head Coach Joe Philbin is uncertain of Ryan Tannehill's future.

With the Miami quarterback controversy and improved play by Oakland last week (16-9 loss to New England), the line has moved to Miami -3.5.

Who will be the 1st coach fired?
  • Dennis Allen: 3/2
  • Joe Philbin: 3/1
  • Gus Bradley: 7/1
  • Jason Garrett: 10/1
  • Jim Harbaugh: 10/1
  • Rex Ryan: 12/1
  • Doug Marrone: 15/1
  • Jeff Fisher: 15/1
  • Ken Whisenhunt: 15/1
  • Lovie Smith: 20/1
  • Tom Coughlin: 25/1

This game could go a long way to determining which coach is fired first. Since 2012, Joe Philbin is 16-19 in Miami, while Dennis Allen is 8-27 and has lost nine straight.