NFL Line Movement (12/12/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Browns, 49ers and Steelers. Lines courtesy of

With three weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, we pause to look at some of the more interesting games in Week 15 to see how the current lines got where they are today.

Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Browns, 49ers and Steelers.

Browns vs. Bengals

One touchdown and eight interceptions across four games have cost Brian Hoyer his job. Johnny Manziel will make his first professional start Sunday against division rival Cincinnati.

The AFC North leading Bengals opened as two point road favorites. The money is split on which side will cover but Cleveland became a one point favorite after the former Heisman winner was announced as the starter.

Johnny Manziel Total TD Passes Week 15
  • Over/Under: 1.5

This season Johnny Football has dropped back to pass 11 times but only attempted nine passes, completing five for 63 yards. We project Manziel to complete just less than 60 percent of his passes for 1.1 passing touchdowns on average.

Seahawks vs. 49ers

Seattle dominated San Francisco on Thanksgiving and followed that performance by manhandling the NFC East leading Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday. The 49ers, after the embarrassing loss to the Hawks, were further humiliated and most likely knocked out of the playoffs by the Oakland Raiders in Week 14.

The defending Super Bowl Champions opened as 7.5 point home favorites. Over 80 percent of the public is on the Seahawks to cover. Seattle is now a 10 point favorite over San Francisco. This is the first time in the Jim Harbaugh era that the 49ers are double-digit underdogs.

Will Colin Kaepernick throw a 4th quarter TD Pass Week 15?
  • Yes: +300
  • No: -500

Colin Kaepernick's star has dimmed. Just two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance, the young quarterback has struggled and is taking blame for the 49ers poor season. Through 13 games, Kaepernick has yet to throw a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter.

Steelers vs. Falcons

One team is 8-5, the other 5-8 but both are in contention for the playoffs. Pittsburgh is a half-game behind Cincinnati for the AFC North lead. Atlanta is tied with New Orleans in the NFC South.

The Steelers opened as small favorites (-1) and are now flirting with becoming field goal favorites on the road.

Atlanta is 1-8 this season against non-division opponents. Pittsburgh averages 21.7 points on the road, almost two touchdowns fewer than when the Steelers play at home. Which trend will continue?

Neither team can afford a loss, yet one team's playoff hopes could be dashed.

Will Le'Veon Bell record 200 or more yards from scrimmage for the 4th straight week?
  • Yes: +450
  • No: -700

In the Steelers last three games, Le'Veon Bell has totaled 711 yards and five touchdowns. Bell joined Hall of Famer Walter Payton as the only running backs to post at least 200 yards from scrimmage in three consecutive games.