NFL Line Movement (12/05/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Colts, Bengals and Texans. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.



As we enter the final turn of the NFL season, we pause to look at some of the more interesting games in Week 14 to see how the current lines got where they are today.

Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Colts, Bengals and Texans.

Colts vs. Browns


The Cleveland Browns are staying the course, Brian Hoyer will start and Johnny Manziel will continue to ride the bench. The decision has little impact, by our numbers, on Cleveland's odds to win this game or make the playoffs.

Indy opened as field goal favorites on the road. The Colts are coming off an impressive offensive performance against the Redskins in which they scored six touchdowns of 30 or more yards. The line has bounced around never getting to Colts -6 but not returning to Indy -3 either.

This game is likely to kick off with Indy favored by slightly more than a field goal.

Will Andrew Luck break the record of 13 games in a Season with 300 or more Passing Yards?
  • Yes: +500
  • No: -800

The record for 300 passing yard games in a season is 13 by Drew Brees in 2011. Luck is currently at 10 games with 300 or more passing yards. To break Brees' record, Luck will need to throw for 300 yards in each of his last four games this season.

According to our rest of season fantasy projections, Luck passes for 300 yards in three of his last four games failing to top 300 yards this week against the Browns.

Bengals vs. Steelers


Who will be King of the North? Cincinnati is eyeing a second straight division title but Pittsburgh controls its own fate. The Bengals just completed a three game road sweep that has netted them a one and a half game lead over the rest of the division.

We project the Bengals to win the division, but an upset by the Steelers in Paul Brown Stadium throws those simulations out the window.

Cincinnati opened as a favorite in the Vegas Zone – a Bill Simmons' phrase for a betting line in the NFL that ranges from 4 to 5.5 points when Las Vegas isn't sure how much to favor a team. Money has come in on Pittsburgh and Cincinnati is currently favored by traditional home field advantage, three points.

Will Andy Dalton have more TD's or Interceptions in the 2014 Regular Season?
  • TDs: -200
  • Interceptions: +160

Andy Dalton has thrown 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions thus far. We project Dalton to finish with approximately six touchdowns and four interceptions. The good news: Dalton doesn't finish with more picks than scores. The bad news: he finishes behind players like Colt McCoy, Zach Mettenberger and Shaun Hill – players not on a playoff team, in our projections.

Dalton will potentially battle Drew Stanton, Mark Sanchez, and Ryan Tannehill for the worst starting quarterback in this postseason.

Texans vs. Jaguars


The Houston Texans are playing for the postseason. The Jacksonville Jaguars are heading for the top of the draft (the Jags have had a top ten pick in seven straight drafts).

This is a must win game for the Texans. A loss to Jacksonville and a win by Indianapolis eliminates Houston from the playoffs.

The Texans opened as four point road favorites and are now favored over the Jags by six points.

J.J. Watt - Total TD's in the 2014 Regular Season?
  • Over/Under: 6

Watt is currently at five touchdowns. The all-defensive player has more touchdowns this season than Keenan Allen and Michael Crabtree and is tied with Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones – all players paid to score touchdowns.