NFL Line Movement (11/21/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Patriots, Packers and 49ers. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.



With another weekend of NFL betting action just around the corner, let's look at the line movements in some of the more interesting games to see how the current lines got where they are today.

Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Patriots, Packers and 49ers.

Patriots vs. Lions


After impressive back-to-back wins over the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts, using two very different offensive approaches (passing vs. Denver, rushing vs. Indy), New England opened as 3.5 points favorites against the Detroit Lions. Over 90 percent of the wagers have been on the Patriots to cover. New England is now favored over the Lions by a touchdown in Foxborough.

Fun fact: if the Lions lose to the Patriots, Matthew Stafford would drop to 0-16 all-time on the road against teams that finish the season with a winning record (per ESPN Stats & Info).

Total Rushing Yards Week 12 - Jonas Gray
  • Over/Under: 62.5

Jonas Gray carried the ball 37 times for 201 yards against Indianapolis last week. Gray had only rushed the ball 32 times in his previous three NFL games. Against a formidable Lions rushing defense, we project Gray to carry the ball 16 times and for less than 60 yards.

Packers vs. Vikings


In a showdown between NFC North rivals, little respect is being given to the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay opened as 6 point favorites but this line is threatening to cross the double digits threshold. The Packers are now favored by 9.5 points on the road after scoring 50 or more points in the team's previous two homes game.

The Vikings have only been home underdogs of 10 or more points once; Minnesota covered the spread (+11 vs. 49ers in 1985).

Will the Packers score 50 or more points Week 12?
  • Yes: +600
  • No: -1000

The Packers scored 50 or more points in back-to-back games (against Chicago and Philadelphia) for the first time in franchise history. Green Bay averages an NFL best 33.0 point per game. Six teams have scored 50 points in back-to-back games in NFL history, including one in each of the last three seasons.

After 50,000 simulations, the Packers score less than 30 points on average against Minnesota this week.

49ers vs. Redskins


San Francisco returns home after securing two road victories. Despite the winning streak, the 49ers are projected to miss the playoffs for the first time in three years. In a critical game for San Francisco's playoff hopes, the Niners opened as 7.5 point favorites against the Washington Redskins.

All the money is on the 49ers to win and cover, San Francisco is now favored by 9 points at home against Washington. Even though they are heavy favorites, the Niners can't get caught looking ahead to their Thanksgiving matchup with Seattle.

Will the Seahawks and 49ers both make the playoffs?
  • Yes: +200
  • No: -300

If the playoffs started today, both San Francisco and Seattle would be out of the playoffs. San Francisco has a 51.9 percent chance and Seattle has a 46.4 percent chance of reaching the postseason. There is no value in betting that both NFC West teams will make the playoffs.