NFL Line Movement (11/14/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Packers, Seahawks and Lions. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.



Week 10 saw Justin Bieber jinx the Steelers, lots of blowouts as eight of the thirteen games were decided by two touchdowns or more, a cat become a fan of the Browns (a team with a dog as the unofficial mascot, and the NFL South implode (except for Atlanta, which won) as the entire division might finish with losing records.

With another weekend of NFL betting action just around the corner, let's look at the line movements in some of the more interesting games to see how the current lines got where they are today.

Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Packers, Seahawks and Lions.

Packers vs. Eagles


Aaron Rodgers tied an NFL record with six touchdown passes in the first half of the Packers 55-14 blowout of Chicago. Even though Philadelphia easily dispatched Carolina in Mark Sanchez's first start in nearly two years, Green Bay opened as 3.5 point favorites. With three-fourths of the bets on the Packers to cover, Aaron Rodgers and company are now favored by 6 points over the Eagles in Lambeau.

Will Aaron Rodgers thrown an interception at home in the 2014 Regular Season?
  • Yes: -250
  • No: +175

The Packers are 32-3 in their last 35 regular-season home games with Aaron Rodgers. One reason for the impressive record, the 2011 NFL MVP hasn't thrown an interception at home since December 2012.

Seahawks vs. Chiefs


Seattle has won three straight games thanks to its running game. The Seahawks lead the league averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Kansas City's defense has struggled to stop the run ranking 30th in yards per carry allowed. Obviously the Hawks would be favored on the road, right?

The defending champions opened as 1.5 point road favorites, but the line has swung to Kansas City -2, though Seattle appears to have a major matchup advantage. Perhaps the public wants to keep betting a good thing. The Chiefs have covered eight straight games.

How many 100 or more Rushing Yard games will Russell Wilson have in the 2014 Regular Season?
  • Over/Under: 3.5

Russell Wilson joined Michael Vick as the only NFL quarterbacks with three 100-yard rushing games in a season. Wilson has 500 rushing yards on the season and is averaging over seven yards per carry.

Cardinals vs. Lions


Arizona enters the marquee matchup of Week 11 with the best record in the league. Unfortunately, the Cardinals will be without starting quarterback Carson Palmer for the remainder of the season.

The NFC West leading Cardinals opened as field goal favorites. The injury to Palmer coupled with a Detroit defense that leads the NFL in points per game and yards per game allowed has seen the line drop to Arizona -1.5 at home.

Arizona is looking for its sixth straight victory while Detroit will try to extend its four game winning streak.

Will the Lions be trailing in the game within the last 2 minutes and come back to win Week 11
  • Yes: +700
  • No: -1500

The Lions have trailed in the last two minutes in each of the last three games and yet still found a way to win. If Detroit is trailing in the fourth it could be difficult to rally against the Cardinals. Arizona is first in the league in point differential and turnover margin in the final quarter of the game (per ESPN Stat & Info).