NFL Line Movement (11/07/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Broncos, Steelers and Eagles. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.



With another weekend of NFL betting action just around the corner, let's look at the line movements in some of the more interesting games to see how the current lines got where they are today.

Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Broncos, Steelers and Eagles.

Broncos @ Raiders


Denver just suffered its worst regular season defeat in Peyton Manning's three seasons in Mile High, yet the defending AFC Champions opened as double-digit road favorites against the Raiders. Denver is now favored by 11.5 points in Oakland.

Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, there have been 19 instances when a team lost by three or more touchdowns the previous week and then was favored by double digits the next week. In those games the double-digit favorite has covered the spread 63 percent of the time (12-7 ATS).

How many QB's will throw 40 or more TD Passes in the 2014 Regular Season?
  • Over/Under: 1.5

Two quarterbacks, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, are currently on pace for over 40 touchdowns. There have been seven times when a quarterback has thrown for over 40 touchdowns in a season since 2000.

Steelers @ Jets


Ben Roethlisberger became the first quarterback to throw 12 touchdown passes in two games. The Steelers have now won three games in a row, while the Jets are looking to avoid a franchise record ninth straight loss.

Over 90 percent of the money is on Pittsburgh to cover. The Steelers opened as 1.5 points favorites in the look-ahead lines but the flood of money on Pittsburgh has drove the line to the Steel City -5.

Will Ben Roethlisberger throw 6 or more TD Passes Week 10?
  • Yes: 20/1

Doubtful. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown six touchdowns in each of the last two weeks with zero interceptions. The odds imply there is less than a 5 percent chance of Big Ben tossing six more scores against the Jets.

Eagles vs. Panthers


Philadelphia is a 6 point favorite at home against Carolina. The over/under in this game is set at 48 points. Nick Foles will miss six to eight weeks with a broken collarbone. The line movement in this game is interesting because there hasn't been any.

Why wouldn't the line move when the starting quarterback of a 6-2 division leading team gets hurt? Chip Kelly's offense is quarterback friendly.

With Mark Sanchez as the starter we project the Eagles to make the playoffs 76 percent of the time and to have nearly a 5 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Who will be the starting QB for the Eagles for game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
  • Mark Sanchez: 5/2
  • Nick Foles: 4/1
  • Matt Barkley: 5/1
  • Any Other QB: 1/1

The options at quarterback aren't great in Philadelphia. Sources say the Eagles had soured on Foles even before the injury. Mark Sanchez is famous for a butt fumble. Perhaps this is why “Any Other QB” is listed as the favorite to start in 2015.