Point Impact (09/15/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Injury roundup – Analyzing the point impact of players on the injury report.



Injuries are part of football. As such, each week we will review the notable injuries around the NFL and analyze the point impact these players would have on their teams if they missed games.

The point impact is the net point difference without the injured player on his team relative to the backup. A negative numbers indicates a player that a team will want to get healthy and back on the field. A positive number means a team is better off with the player not active.

Injury Roundup

Tony Romo will be without his favorite target for at least the next four to six weeks. Dez Bryant broke a bone in his foot against the Giants in Week 1. The Pro Bowl receiver is worth more than a point per game to the Cowboys.

Cardinals' running back Andre Ellington suffered a knee injury against the Saints. The oft-injured back is expected to miss a few weeks. Good news for Arizona, there is no difference between Ellington and the other backs on the roster.

Le'Veon Bell is not hurt but he does have one of the biggest (non-quarterback) point impacts in the NFL. Pittsburgh's offense will be expected to score 1.94 points per game more when the All-Pro returns to the lineup from suspension.

Quarterbacks have the biggest point impact of any position in football. The difference between Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo is nearly nine points per game. Of course not all play callers mean that much to their team. Oakland would be better off if Derek Carr missed a game because of his hand injury and while Cleveland would be worse off with Josh McCown out of the lineup, that is more an indictment of Johnny Manziel than an endorsement for McCown.

Point Impact

Player Team Point Impact
Andre Ellington Arizona Negligible
Terrell Suggs Baltimore -0.38
Luke Kuechly Carolina -0.98
Josh McCown Cleveland -1.85
Dez Bryant Dallas -1.03
Arian Foster Houston -1.60
TY Hilton Indianapolis -0.22
Victor Cruz NY Giants Negligible
Derek Carr Oakland +0.13
Le'Veon Bell Pittsburgh -1.94
Mike Evans Tampa Bay -0.66
DeSean Jackson Washington -0.17