NFL Divisional Futures (1/8/14)

By John Ewing
After 50,000 simulations of the NFL Playoffs we find value in football futures: Super Bowl and Conference odds. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.
 


To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Super Bowl and compare that to our projected odds that they win the Lombardi Trophy. For example, Denver is listed at 13/5 to win the Super Bowl, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Broncos they would need to win it all 27.8% (which is 5/(5+13)) of the time. We project Denver to win it all 23.2% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at 13/5 odds.
 
Super Bowl Value Bets
 
Seattle Seahawks (13-3, 1st seed in the NFC)
Current odds: 5/2, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 28.6%
Seattle wins the Super Bowl 33.2% of the time
 
Seattle reaches the Super Bowl 47.9% of the time. Against an AFC opponent in the Super Bowl we would expect the Seahawks to win 69% of the time and be more than a touchdown favorite.
 
Conference Value Bets
 
New Orleans Saints (11-5, 6th seed in the NFC)
Current odds: 7/1, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 12.5%
New Orleans wins the NFC 12.8% of the time
 
The Saints had a 3-5 road record during the regular season, were 0-3 in road playoff games during the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era and the franchise was 0-5 all-time in road playoff games. That all changed with a 26-24 win over the Eagles last week.
 
If New Orleans is going to win the NFC they will have to do so on the road heading to Seattle this week, and if they win then a trip to either Carolina or San Francisco.
 
Indianapolis Colts (11-5, 4th seed in the AFC)
Current odds: 7/1, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 12.5%
Indianapolis wins the AFC 14.2% of the time
 
Andrew Luck engineered the second largest comeback in NFL playoff history despite only having a 7.0% chance of winning trailing 38-10 in the 3rd quarter. Indy is a long shot to win the AFC but their odds are twice as good to win the conference than they were to complete that rally against the Chiefs.
 
San Diego Chargers (9-7, 6th seed in AFC)
Odds to win Conference: 7/1, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 12.5%
San Diego wins the AFC 13.3% of the time
 
The Chargers want to win the Super Bowl but not for the reason you think. San Diego wants to keep a weird streak involving the Eagles alive. If the Bolts win the Super Bowl they will be the fifth straight team to have played the Eagles in the Eagles’ home opener and gone on to win the Super Bowl.
 
Below are the odds for each team to win the Super Bowl and their respective conferences. Plus, odds needed to place a wager and our projected odds for each team.
 
Super Bowl Odds

Team Super Bowl Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
Seattle Seahawks 5/2 28.6% 33.2%
Denver Broncos 13/5 27.8% 23.2%
San Francisco 49ers 5/1 16.7% 15.0%
New England Patriots 8/1 11.1% 6.7%
Carolina Panthers 11/1 8.3% 6.5%
New Orleans Saints 12/1 7.7% 7.4%
San Diego Chargers 14/1 6.7% 4.2%
Indianapolis Colts 16/1 5.9% 3.8%

NFC Conference Odds

Team Conference Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
Seattle Seahawks 10/11 52.4% 47.9%
San Francisco 49ers 11/4 26.7% 25.2%
Carolina Panthers 9/2 18.2% 14.1%
New Orleans Saints 7/1 12.5% 12.8%

AFC Conference Odds
 
Team Conference Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
Denver Broncos 5/7 58.3% 50.2%
New England Patriots 3/1 25.0% 22.3%
Indianapolis Colts 7/1 12.5% 14.2%
San Diego Chargers 7/1 12.5% 13.3%