NFL Expected Points: Week 10 (11/13/17)

By Frank Brank @realfrankbrank
As a weekly ritual, let's break down this week in NFL Expected Points. For a refresher on how Expected Points works, check out our first publication which explains what we take into account.



Vikings 25.1 - Redskins 31.6
The Redskins did enough on Sunday to typically win the game against the Vikings. They gained nearly 400 yards, only committed one turnover, and picked up just 15 penalty yards. Unfortunately, they were on the wrong side of the scoreboard.

The reason for the loss was the Vikings outperforming their Expected Points value by quite a bit. Only having 36.6% chance to win based off performance, Minnesota had similar yardage, more penalties, and more turnovers.

Also, on Minnesota's non-scoring drives, they only compiled 40 total yards. They were able to distribute nearly all of their yardages into a handful of drives, including just a 23-yard touchdown drive after an interception late in the second half, that led to the Vikings win in Washington.

Browns 24.6 - Lions 24.1
At this point, it's not surprising the Browns have underperformed their already-low expectations. This time, it was on defense as the Lions outperformed their Expected Points total by nearly two touchdowns.

Just last week, the Lions underperformed their Expected Points total by the biggest margin of the season. They saw some positive regression this week, mostly in the fourth quarter, to avoid the upset.

Detroit gained a decent amount of yards with 345, but 38 points usually requires a bit more. The Browns' offense also disappointed by failing at the goal line to end each half. Cleveland's front office would likely rather continue to underperform and stack up early draft picks at this point; thus, this outcome isn't too bad for the team.