Bessire: QB Ranks and Projections

Last Updated: 5/1/2016 1:00 PM ET
Projections for every ranked quarterback are below. Players are ranked based on PredictionMachine.com's 2016 projected statistics for what each player would be expected to do as a 16 game starter on a totally average NFL team against a completely average NFL schedule. Read more about how rankings and projections are done.

Some highlights:

We include an impact score (0 - 10 scale) for each player. This score is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions and draft classes. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position as a rookie; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who could star.

As a matter of context, at this time last year, using the same process, the top five quarterbacks had scores of: Marcus Mariota (9.5), Jameis Winston (8.1), Bryce Petty (8.0), Brett Hundley (7.4) and Garrett Grayson (7.3).

In 2014, it was: Teddy Bridgewater (8.2), Johnny Manziel (8.2), Tahj Boyd (8.0), Blake Bortles (7.8), AJ McCarron (7.6) and Derek Carr (7.5).

In 2012, as one would expect, given what we seen in the last three seasons, the rankings looked very different. At that time, the top five quarterbacks had scores of: Robert Griffin III (9.5), Andrew Luck (9.1), Russell Wilson (8.5), Brandon Weeden (7.9) and Nick Foles (7.9).

In other words, there is no one in this class that rivals Mariota or the 2012 stars of Griffin/Luck/Wilson, though Jared Goff is ahead of Jameis Winston and Blake Bortles, the top quarterbacks off the board in th last. two seasons The best quarterback in this year's draft class would have ranked in the 26th best overall among the Top 250 prospects in 2015's total prospect rankings. Jared Goff is the ONLY prospect that grades as above average in this class.

Some players with lower scorers, yet higher variance (potential "boom or bust" players) include: Carson Wentz, Vernon Adams, Nate Sudfeld, Jeff Driskel and Cardale Jones. By 2019, most of these players will be out of the league, yet one or two of these players in should be a quality starter in three seasons.

QB 2016 Projected NFL Rookie Pass Data

Rank Player Att Comp Comp% Yards TDs INTS Score
1 Jared Goff 539 315 58.4% 3,851 23 17 8.3
2 Dak Prescott 532 304 57.1% 3,598 20 15 7.8
3 Matt Johnson 523 290 55.5% 3,588 21 15 7.5
4 Carson Wentz 498 290 58.4% 3,562 21 16 7.5
5 Paxton Lynch 510 299 58.6% 3,551 19 14 7.4
6 Vernon Adams 494 239 48.4% 3,607 21 18 7.2
7 Trevone Boykin 520 284 54.7% 3,535 20 18 7.2
8 Connor Cook 508 286 56.3% 3,490 20 15 7.2
9 Kevin Hogan 487 282 58.0% 3,500 21 16 7.1
10 Nate Sudfeld 515 279 54.2% 3,510 20 16 7.0
11 Jeff Driskel 518 282 54.3% 3,505 18 17 6.9
12 Cardale Jones 495 282 57.0% 3,459 18 17 6.9
13 Cody Kessler 511 295 57.8% 3,459 20 14 6.9
14 Brandon Allen 499 280 56.2% 3,484 20 16 6.9
15 Jake Coker 510 291 57.1% 3,383 18 15 6.5
16 Christian Hackenberg 515 287 55.8% 3,355 17 15 6.3
17 Marquise Williams 506 264 52.1% 3,295 18 18 6.3
18 Brandon Doughty 470 269 57.1% 3,315 20 15 6.3
19 Jake Rudock 506 286 56.6% 3,324 18 17 6.3
20 Mike Bercovici 536 279 52.0% 3,315 19 17 6.2
21 Taysom Hill 532 275 51.6% 3,248 17 21 6.1
22 Josh Woodrum 514 263 51.2% 3,222 16 19 5.7
23 Joel Stave 498 274 55.1% 3,214 15 19 5.6
24 Jacoby Brissett 507 269 53.0% 3,068 17 15 5.6
25 Jacob Huesman 480 255 53.2% 3,006 17 19 5.4
26 Travis Wilson 501 272 54.4% 3,059 16 19 5.4
27 Blake Frohnapfel 534 266 49.9% 3,067 15 20 5.1
28 Vlad Lee 537 281 52.4% 2,564 24 32 4.0