Bessire: QB Ranks and Projections
We include an impact score (0 - 10 scale) for each player. This score is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions and draft classes. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position as a rookie; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who could star.
As a matter of context, at this time last year, using the same process, the top five quarterbacks had scores of: Marcus Mariota (9.5), Jameis Winston (8.1), Bryce Petty (8.0), Brett Hundley (7.4) and Garrett Grayson (7.3).
In 2014, it was: Teddy Bridgewater (8.2), Johnny Manziel (8.2), Tahj Boyd (8.0), Blake Bortles (7.8), AJ McCarron (7.6) and Derek Carr (7.5).
In 2012, as one would expect, given what we seen in the last three seasons, the rankings looked very different. At that time, the top five quarterbacks had scores of: Robert Griffin III (9.5), Andrew Luck (9.1), Russell Wilson (8.5), Brandon Weeden (7.9) and Nick Foles (7.9).
In other words, there is no one in this class that rivals Mariota or the 2012 stars of Griffin/Luck/Wilson, though Jared Goff is ahead of Jameis Winston and Blake Bortles, the top quarterbacks off the board in th last. two seasons The best quarterback in this year's draft class would have ranked in the 26th best overall among the Top 250 prospects in 2015's total prospect rankings. Jared Goff is the ONLY prospect that grades as above average in this class.
Some players with lower scorers, yet higher variance (potential "boom or bust" players) include: Carson Wentz, Vernon Adams, Nate Sudfeld, Jeff Driskel and Cardale Jones. By 2019, most of these players will be out of the league, yet one or two of these players in should be a quality starter in three seasons.
QB 2016 Projected NFL Rookie Pass Data