Bessire: QB Ranks and Projections
We have included an impact score (0 - 10 scale) for each player. This score is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions and draft classes. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position as a rookie; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who could star.
As a matter of context, at this time last year, using the same process, the top five quarterbacks had scores of: Teddy Bridgewater (8.2), Johnny Manziel (8.2), Tahj Boyd (8.0), Blake Bortles (7.8), AJ McCarron (7.6) and Derek Carr (7.5).
In 2012, as one would expect, given what we seen in the last three seasons, the rankings looked very different. At that time, the top five quarterbacks had scores of: Robert Griffin III (9.5), Andrew Luck (9.1), Russell Wilson (8.5), Brandon Weeden (7.9) and Nick Foles (7.9).
In other words, Marcus Mariota (9.5) is at a 2012 Griffin/Luck/Wilson, while Teddy Bridgewater would rank ahead of Jameis Winston (8.1) and all others had he been in this class. The best quarterback in this year's draft class would have ranked in the ten best overall among the Top 250 in 2014's total prospect rankings (spoiler: Mariota is going to rank in the top ten overall for 2015 as well). Only three quarterbacks from this class - Mariota, Winston and Bryce Petty (8.0) - even really belong in the NFL.
Some players with lower scorers, yet higher variance (potential "boom or bust" players) include: Sean Mannion, Taylor Kelly, Taylor Heinicke, Hutson Mason and Bryan Bennett . By 2018, most of these players will be out of the league, however, whether it be due to scheme fit, coaching, luck and/or motivation, one or two of the players in this group could also be a quality starter in 2018.
QB 2015 Projected NFL Rookie Pass Data
QB 2015 Projected Rush Data